MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

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RAIN DELAY, TOP 1STTied

MIN

16-23

CLE

21-19

Live · model leanRain Delay, Top 1stPolls every 30s

56.0%

CLE wins · current

Pre-game: 65.0% CLE

MIN 0 · 0 CLE

Tied

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.30

J. Ryan

2-3 · 3.72 ERA

T. Bibee

0-5 · 4.58 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

CLE no-vig %

52.2%

open 50.4% · +1.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.4%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
65.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.9%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.3%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

52% confidence

Win prob · home

58.9%

-6.1ppvs pre-game · CLE favored

Leverage

medium

Tied · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.74

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-112

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Market steamed in our direction

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

CLE vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.5± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
6.4± 2.5low
Connor PrielippMIN
5.3± 1.3low

Hits

Chase DeLauterCLE
1.5± 0.9high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
3.0± 2.7high
Chase DeLauterCLE
2.3± 1.7high
Ryan JeffersMIN
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Byron BuxtonMIN
0.8± 1.1high
Chase DeLauterCLE
0.7± 0.9high
Rhys HoskinsCLE
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
3.8± 2.3low
Slade CecconiCLE
3.5± 3.1low
Tanner BibeeCLE
2.5± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

MIN

Twins

16-24

vs65.0%CLE

CLE★

Guardians

21-19

MIN 35.0%win prob65.0% CLE

CLE 1524 · MIN 1440Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSat, May 9Rain Delay, Top 1stSeriesCLE leads series 1-0VegasCLE -122

Updated 0s ago

MIN · top performer

Byron Buxton

—OPS

0-0

AB-H

RBI

CLE · top performer

Steven Kwan

—OPS

0-0

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Rain Delay, Top 1stTied

MIN16-23

CLE21-19

MIN16-23CLE21-19

MIN

16-23

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. Buxton★CF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Lee★SS	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Larnach★LF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Bell★1B	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Keaschall★2B	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Clemens★1B	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Caratini★C	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Wallner★RF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Lewis★3B	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
J. Ryan★SP	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0

CLE

21-19

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. Kwan★CF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. DeLauter★RF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Ramirez★3B	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Manzardo★1B	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Schneemann★CF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Bazzana★2B	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Martinez★LF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Hedges★C	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Rocchio★SS	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
T. Bibee★SP	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

CLE leads series 1-0

May 8

MIN4@

CLE6

May 9

MIN@

CLEtoday

May 10

MIN@

CLEupcoming

Season series

CLE leads series 1-0

May 8

MIN4@

CLE6

May 9

MIN@

CLEtoday

May 10

MIN@

CLEupcoming

Jul 7

CLE@

MINupcoming

Jul 8

CLE@

MINupcoming

Jul 9

CLE@

MINupcoming

Jul 20

MIN@

CLEupcoming

Jul 21

MIN@

CLEupcoming

Jul 22

MIN@

CLEupcoming

Jul 23

MIN@

CLEupcoming

Sep 12

CLE@

MINupcoming

Sep 12

CLE@

MINupcoming

Sep 13

CLE@

MINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

0.5pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

MIN+10250%

CLE-12255%

2· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

+0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

MINSP

J. Ryan

#41 · 2-3

ERA

3.72

—

Last 3 starts

5/3vs

TOR0.1 IP · 0 ER · 1 K-

4/28vs

SEA6.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 KL(2-3)

4/23@

NYM5.0 IP · 4 ER · 5 K-

CLESP

T. Bibee

#28 · 0-5

ERA

4.58

—

Last 3 starts

5/4@

KC4.0 IP · 4 ER · 4 KL(0-5)

4/28vs

TB5.0 IP · 1 ER · 6 KL(0-4)

4/22vs

HOU6.0 IP · 2 ER · 3 KL(0-3)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

MIN3L · 3R · 3S

1
B. Buxton
CF · #25
R
2
B. Lee
SS · #22
B
3
T. Larnach
LF · #9
L
4
J. Bell
DH · #56
B
5
L. Keaschall
2B · #15
R
6
K. Clemens
1B · #2
L
7
V. Caratini
C · #37
B
8
M. Wallner
RF · #38
L
9
R. Lewis
3B · #23
R

CLE5L · 1R · 3S

1
S. Kwan
LF · #38
L
2
C. DeLauter
DH · #24
L
3
J. Ramirez
3B · #11
B
4
K. Manzardo
1B · #9
L
5
D. Schneemann
CF · #10
L
6
T. Bazzana
2B · #37
L
7
A. Martinez
RF · #1
B
8
A. Hedges
C · #27
R
9
B. Rocchio
SS · #4
B

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 8·MIN +102/CLE -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

64.4%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
65.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.9%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.3%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen