WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

Live read

Ariel Atkins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Erica Wheeler assists) → win prob 13→23% LA

3:07 - 4TH+3DAL

DAL

6-3

9491

4-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 385 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jessica ShepardDAL · F
AST/TO4.899+
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893
Dearica HambyLA · F
ORB%.10590
Nneka OgwumikeLA · F
DRB%.23386
Erica WheelerLA · G
AST/TO2.174

WNBAFri, Jun 53:07 - 4thVegasDAL -2.5

Updated 0s ago

DAL · top performer

Jessica Shepard

F · #32

23.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LA · top performer

Kelsey Plum

G · #10

17.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box score

3:07 - 4th

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Core		Rebounds	Playmaking	Defense		Discipline
Player
J. ShepardDouble-double★F · #32	34	22	14	4	2	0	4	+5
AST/TO4.899+ DRB%.34298 ORB%.10388
M. Siegrist★F · #20	21	11	3	0	2	1	1	+5
A. Ogunbowale★G · #24	31	27	5	6	0	0	3	+1
USG%.25071 AST/TO1.649 ORB%.03140
P. BueckersDouble-double★G · #5	33	16	3	14	0	0	1	0
AST/TO2.893 eFG%.56181 TS%.59974
A. Fudd30+ minutes, 0 turnovers★G · #35	32	11	1	2	2	0	0	0
A. SmithF · #8	16	4	2	0	0	1	2	-2
A. JamesG · #10	10	3	1	3	1	0	0	+5

Team		94	30	29	7	2	12
DNP: J. Quinerly

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Core		Rebounds	Playmaking	Defense		Discipline
Player
N. OgwumikeDouble-double★F · #30	32	13	10	5	1	0	0	-3
DRB%.23386 eFG%.56983 TS%.60981
D. Hamby★F · #5	27	15	4	1	0	0	0	+1
ORB%.10590 DRB%.22681 TS%.59467
E. Wheeler★G · #17	30	5	0	6	1	0	2	-3
K. Plum★G · #10	29	24	2	6	0	0	4	-2
A. Atkins★G · #7	25	16	3	3	1	0	2	+4
C. BrinkF · #22	15	10	5	0	0	1	3	-4
R. BurrellG · #12	18	3	2	4	2	1	2	-2

Team		91	26	25	5	2	14
DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, Jihyun, T. Latson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

Jun 6

DAL@

LAtoday

Jul 19

LA@

DALupcoming

Sep 18

LA@

DALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -2.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.1h

Total

178.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

DAL-13057%

LA+11048%

25· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -2.5↗SpreadBet DAL -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

-4.0 since open

Total

178.5

+11.0 since open

Live · top performers so far

3:07 - 4th

Game flowDAL ↔ LA

Recent swing: 10pp · 4th Quarter · 3:13

Just happened

Wings Full timeout

DAL

J. Shepard

Leading · 3:07 - 4th · 34 min

22 PTS · 14 REB · 4 AST

On pace: 26 PTS · 16 REB · 5 AST

K. Plum

Leading · 3:07 - 4th · 29 min

24 PTS · 2 REB · 6 AST

On pace: 33 PTS · 3 REB · 8 AST

How it's going

DAL lead LA 94-91 (3:07 - 4th). J. Shepard led with 22 PTS, 14 REB, 4 AST.

Win probability

LA vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 93% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 26 REB · 26 AST

GS 82

Bench(4)

7 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST

GS 2

LAstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 19 REB · 21 AST

GS 64

Bench(4)

18 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST

GS 9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL4th Quarter · 8:55 · 80-79

+13pp→ 60% WP

Dearica Hamby · shooting foul

LA4th Quarter · 7:43 · 83-83

+14pp→ 65% WP

Arike Ogunbowale · shooting foul

DAL4th Quarter · 6:44 · 88-84

+12pp→ 67% WP

Maddy Siegrist · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paige Bueckers assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	24	30	23	17	94
LA	28	27	23	13	91

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · LA won 1

Ogunbowale 10

Plum 7

Shepard 9

Atkins 13

Ogunbowale 10

Ogwumike 7

Shepard 5

Plum 7

DAL

Shooting comparison

DAL

55%

38-69

56%

36-64

38%

9-24

3PT

36%

9-25

64%

9-14

67%

10-15

Play-by-play · 342 plays

period

event

player

Q4·3:07
Wings Full timeout
DAL 94·LA 91
Q4·3:13
Ariel Atkins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Erica Wheeler assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 94·LA 91
+10pp
Q4·3:32
Sparks defensive team rebound
DAL 94·LA 88
+0.9pp
Q4·3:33
Aziaha James misses 22-foot three point jumper
DAL 94·LA 88
+2pp
Q4·3:41
Maddy Siegrist defensive rebound
DAL 94·LA 88
−1pp
Q4·3:44
Ariel Atkins misses running layup
DAL 94·LA 88
−3pp
Q4·3:50
Jessica Shepard bad pass turnover (Ariel Atkins steals)
·
DAL 94·LA 88
+3pp
Q4·4:08
Kelsey Plum makes 3-foot two point shot
DAL 94·LA 88
+3pp
Q4·4:23
Paige Bueckers makes 13-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 94·LA 86
−4pp
Q4·4:37
Jessica Shepard defensive rebound
DAL 92·LA 86
−1pp
Q4·4:41
Ariel Atkins misses 23-foot three point jumper
DAL 92·LA 86
−3pp
Q4·4:52
Dearica Hamby offensive rebound
DAL 92·LA 86
+3pp
Q4·4:55
Kelsey Plum misses 25-foot three point jumper
DAL 92·LA 86
−3pp
Q4·5:01
Paige Bueckers vs. Nneka Ogwumike
·
DAL 92·LA 86
+1pp
Q4·5:18
(05:18) [Wings] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
DAL 92·LA 86
−2pp
Q4·5:18
Maddy Siegrist offensive foul turnover
DAL 92·LA 86
Q4·5:18
Maddy Siegrist offensive foul
DAL 92·LA 86
+3pp
Q4·5:38
Kelsey Plum makes driving layup
DAL 92·LA 86
+3pp
Q4·5:52
Maddy Siegrist makes 2-foot running jump shot (Aziaha James assists)
·
DAL 92·LA 84
−4pp
Q4·5:56
Kelsey Plum lost ball turnover (Maddy Siegrist steals)
·
DAL 90·LA 84
−5pp
Q4·6:08
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
DAL 90·LA 84
Q4·6:12
Aziaha James misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
DAL 90·LA 84
+7pp
Q4·6:12
Dearica Hamby enters the game for Cameron Brink
·
DAL 90·LA 84
Q4·6:12
Ariel Atkins shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 90·LA 84
−8pp
Q4·6:12
Aziaha James makes 3-foot two point shot (Jessica Shepard assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 90·LA 84
−5pp
Q4·6:26
Aziaha James defensive rebound
DAL 88·LA 84
−2pp
Q4·6:30
Cameron Brink misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DAL 88·LA 84
−5pp
Q4·6:44
Maddy Siegrist makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paige Bueckers assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 88·LA 84
−12pp
Q4·7:03
Aziaha James enters the game for Arike Ogunbowale
·
DAL 85·LA 84
Q4·7:03
Sparks Full timeout
DAL 85·LA 84
+2pp

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

Home

38-69

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-64

FG %

9-24

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-25

9-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-15

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

DAL -2.5·O/U 178.5·DAL -130/LA +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Live · model lean3:07 - 4thPolls every 30s

50.1%

DAL wins · current

Pre-game: 60.3% LA

DAL 94 · 91 LA

DAL +3

Live momentum · cumulative diff

away leadsLA leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingDAL4th Quarter · 6:44 · 88-84
+12pp→ 67% WP
Maddy Siegrist · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paige Bueckers assists)
ClutchLA4th Quarter · 7:43 · 83-83
+14pp→ 65% WP
Arike Ogunbowale · shooting foul
Lead flipDAL4th Quarter · 8:55 · 80-79
+13pp→ 60% WP
Dearica Hamby · shooting foul
SwingDAL3rd Quarter · 1:34 · 75-75
+11pp→ 47% WP
Rae Burrell · misses two point shot
Lead flipLA3rd Quarter · 2:31 · 72-73
+10pp→ 58% WP
Ariel Atkins · makes 25-foot running jump shot (Kelsey Plum assists)

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.3%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
70.7%
P(LA win)
32%
weight
Elo Recent
71.8%
P(LA win)
35%
weight
Pace Efficiency
72.6%
P(LA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

33.7%

-37.0ppvs pre-game · DAL favored

Leverage

±13.0

pp · next play

peak · 100/100

3-point game

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+15.77

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+195

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

32.5%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Market steamed in our direction

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.3pp

best edge · LA · DraftKings

DAL

no live price

★ best

-120DraftKings

edge +9.3pp · implied 51.0%

Book	DAL	LA	Best edge
DraftKings	-110	-120★	+9.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

LA vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

110

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumLA
24.5± 10.4low
Paige BueckersDAL
17.7± 9.0low
Nneka OgwumikeLA
15.4± 5.3low

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
10.4± 6.1low
Dearica HambyLA
7.1± 4.2low
Nneka OgwumikeLA
7.0± 4.4low

Assists

Paige BueckersDAL
5.6± 3.1low
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.5± 5.1low
Kelsey PlumLA
5.5± 3.9low

Blocks

Cameron BrinkLA
1.5± 1.3low
Awak KuierDAL
0.9± 1.1low
Azzi FuddDAL
0.8± 1.4low

Steals

Ariel AtkinsLA
2.0± 1.8low
Dearica HambyLA
1.3± 1.8low
Aziaha JamesDAL
1.2± 1.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

DAL

league avg

45.4%

FG%

44.3

▶

47.4%

35.3%

3PT %

◀

32.9

33.1%

87.8

PPG

84.8

87.9

22.9

Assists / G

◀

18.0

19.7

10.0

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

15.8

Data via ESPN · wehoop