Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at LA?

The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+8DAL

DAL

7-3

10496

4-6

WNBAFri, Jun 5FinalSeriesDAL leads series 2-0VegasDAL -2.5

DAL · top performer

Jessica Shepard

F · #32

24.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LA · top performer

Kelsey Plum

G · #10

18.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ LA

Biggest swing: 14pp · 4th Quarter · 1:06

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	38	22	9-13	—	4-6	+10	15	5
M. SiegristF · #20	24	16	7-10	2-2	—	+10	4	0
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	34	30	10-21	6-11	4-5	+6	6	6
P. BueckersG · #5	36	18	7-14	1-4	3-4	+5	3	14
A. FuddG · #35	35	11	5-10	1-4	—	+5	1	2
Bench
A. ClarkF · #7	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
A. SmithF · #8	16	4	2-4	0-2	—	-2	2	0
O. SimsG · #1	5	0	0-1	—	—	+3	1	0
A. JamesG · #10	10	3	1-4	0-2	1-3	+5	1	3
Team		104	41-77	10-25	12-18		33	30
DNP: J. Quinerly

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. OgwumikeF · #30	35	13	6-8	1-2	—	-8	10	5
D. HambyF · #5	30	15	6-8	—	3-4	-4	5	1
E. WheelerG · #17	33	7	2-8	1-4	2-2	-8	1	6
K. PlumG · #10	33	27	10-16	1-6	6-8	-7	2	6
A. AtkinsG · #7	28	16	6-12	4-7	—	-1	5	3
Bench
C. BrinkF · #22	15	10	3-7	1-4	3-4	-4	5	0
R. BurrellG · #12	18	3	1-5	0-3	1-2	-2	2	4
K. MartinG · #21	3	5	2-2	1-1	0-1	-4	0	0
C. GrayG · #2	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	0	0
Team		96	36-67	9-28	15-21		30	25
DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, Jihyun, T. Latson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

Home

41-77

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-67

FG %

10-25

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-28

12-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DAL leads series 2-0

Jun 6

DAL104@

LA96today

Jul 19

LA82@

DAL90

Sep 18

LA@

DALupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -2.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.1h

Total

178.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

DAL-13057%

LA+11048%

25· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -2.5↗SpreadBet DAL -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

-4.0 since open

Total

178.5

+11.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat LA 104-96. J. Shepard led with 22 PTS, 15 REB, 5 AST. DAL outscored the other side 27-18 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LA vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 93% of pts

Starters(5)

97 PTS · 29 REB · 27 AST

GS 91

Bench(4)

7 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST

GS 2

LAstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 23 REB · 21 AST

GS 64

Bench(4)

18 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST

GS 9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL4th Quarter · 8:55 · 80-79

+13pp→ 60% WP

Dearica Hamby · shooting foul

LA4th Quarter · 7:43 · 83-83

+14pp→ 65% WP

Arike Ogunbowale · shooting foul

LA4th Quarter · 1:06 · 99-95

+14pp→ 35% WP

Azzi Fudd · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	24	30	23	27	104
LA	28	27	23	18	96

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · LA won 1

Ogunbowale 10

Plum 7

Shepard 9

Atkins 13

Ogunbowale 10

Ogwumike 7

Siegrist 10

Plum 10

DAL

Shooting comparison

DAL

53%

41-77

54%

36-67

40%

10-25

3PT

32%

9-28

67%

12-18

71%

15-21

Play-by-play · 387 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 104·LA 96
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 104·LA 96
Q4·2.4
Dearica Hamby defensive rebound
DAL 104·LA 96
Q4·2.9
Maddy Siegrist misses 8-foot floating jump shot
DAL 104·LA 96
Q4·22.3
Kelsey Plum bad pass turnover (Paige Bueckers steals)
·
DAL 104·LA 96
−0.9pp
Q4·30.5
Arike Ogunbowale makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 104·LA 96
Q4·30.5
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 103·LA 96
Q4·30.5
Arike Ogunbowale misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 103·LA 96
Q4·30.5
Ariel Atkins personal take foul
DAL 103·LA 96
−0.5pp
Q4·33.7
Erica Wheeler bad pass turnover (Maddy Siegrist steals)
·
DAL 103·LA 96
−2pp
Q4·35.7
Erica Wheeler offensive rebound
DAL 103·LA 96
+0.9pp
Q4·39.1
Erica Wheeler misses 26-foot three point jumper
DAL 103·LA 96
−1pp
Q4·39.8
Ariel Atkins offensive rebound
DAL 103·LA 96
+1pp
Q4·43.4
Kelsey Plum misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 103·LA 96
−2pp
Q4·47.1
Sparks timeout
DAL 103·LA 96
Q4·47.1
Paige Bueckers makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 103·LA 96
+2pp
Q4·47.1
Paige Bueckers makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 102·LA 96
−0.5pp
Q4·47.1
Erica Wheeler personal foul
DAL 101·LA 96
−4pp
Q4·47.7
Erica Wheeler bad pass turnover (Maddy Siegrist steals)
·
DAL 101·LA 96
−5pp
Q4·50.3
Sparks Full timeout
DAL 101·LA 96
Q4·50.4
Maddy Siegrist makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 101·LA 96
−5pp
Q4·50.4
Maddy Siegrist offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 99·LA 96
−8pp
Q4·52.2
Paige Bueckers misses 14-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 99·LA 96
+6pp
Q4·1:06
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 99·LA 96
−2pp
Q4·1:06
Sparks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 99·LA 95
−6pp
Q4·1:06
Kelsey Plum misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 99·LA 95
−8pp
Q4·1:06
Azzi Fudd personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 99·LA 95
+14pp
Q4·1:11
Sparks defensive team rebound
DAL 99·LA 95
+2pp
Q4·1:12
Arike Ogunbowale misses 15-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 99·LA 95
+6pp
Q4·1:15
Wings Full timeout
DAL 99·LA 95
−1pp

Betting line

DAL -2.5·O/U 178.5·DAL -130/LA +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

allas Wings went into Los Angeles Sparks and beat them, 104–96.

DAL -2.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 178.5 OVER by 21.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

DAL

eFG%

shooting

59.7%

60.4%

TOV%

ball control

12.4%

18.2%

OREB%

offensive glass

37.1%

28.6%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

15.6%

22.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Kelsey PlumLA · G
TS%.68699
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893
Nneka OgwumikeLA · F
DRB%.25989
Dearica HambyLA · F
ORB%.10687

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.9%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
69.6%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
74.1%
P(LA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
72.7%
P(LA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.88 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+15.77

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+195

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

32.5%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at LA?: The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+15.1pp

best edge · LA · DraftKings

DAL

no live price

★ best

-120DraftKings

edge +15.1pp · implied 51.0%

Book	DAL	LA	Best edge
DraftKings	-110	-120★	+15.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LA vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumLA
23.3± 15.0low
Paige BueckersDAL
21.0± 6.3high
Nneka OgwumikeLA
17.9± 4.8high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
12.1± 4.1high
Nneka OgwumikeLA
9.3± 3.1high
Dearica HambyLA
6.4± 2.5high

Assists

Kelsey PlumLA
6.6± 3.5low
Paige BueckersDAL
6.3± 1.9high
Erica WheelerLA
5.9± 2.2high

Blocks

Awak KuierDAL
1.4± 1.4high
Cameron BrinkLA
1.4± 0.8high
Azzi FuddDAL
0.5± 0.5high

Steals

Azzi FuddDAL
1.8± 1.3high
Dearica HambyLA
1.8± 1.2high
Ariel AtkinsLA
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Dallas WingsLos Angeles Sparks

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop