MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ATH

ATH

29-31

CHC

32-29

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 985 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

36,065 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 0.0 · +7.5

CHC no-vig %

53.1%

open 53.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.4%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
58.0%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.4%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.9%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.9pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

ATH

no live price

CHC

★ best

-132DraftKings

edge +3.9pp · implied 54.3%

Book	ATH	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	+109	-132★	+3.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHC vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shota ImanagaCHC
5.8± 4.7low
Jameson TaillonCHC
4.9± 2.9low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.8± 2.0low

Hits

Nick KurtzATH
1.1± 1.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
1.1± 0.8high
Zack GelofATH
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Nick KurtzATH
2.1± 2.0high
Ian HappCHC
2.1± 2.5high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.0± 2.1high

RBIs

Ian HappCHC
0.9± 1.7high
Michael BuschCHC
0.7± 0.9high
Nick KurtzATH
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Jameson TaillonCHC
3.4± 3.0low
Shota ImanagaCHC
2.9± 4.0low
Colin ReaCHC
2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 2 · CHC 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2
CHC	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. Cortes★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.1
N. Kurtz★1B	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.4
SPRINT26.632
S. Langeliers★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	24.5
T. Soderstrom★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	11.7
SPRINT26.735
B. Rooker★DH	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	10.2
SPRINT27.148
H. Bolte★CF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2	0.6
J. McNeil★2B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	9.6
Z. Gelof★3B	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	2	2.1
SPRINT28.891
D. Hernaiz★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.0
C. ThomasRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.7

Team	6-33	33	2	6	2	1	1	8	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

C. Cortes★RF

0-3

2.1

N. Kurtz★1B

1-3

1.4

S. Langeliers★C

0-4

24.5

T. Soderstrom★LF

1-4

11.7

B. Rooker★DH

1-4

10.2

H. Bolte★CF

1-4

0.6

J. McNeil★2B

1-4

9.6

Z. Gelof★3B

1-3

2.1

D. Hernaiz★SS

0-3

4.0

C. ThomasRF

0-1

0.7

Team

6-33

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
G. Jump★RP	7.0	3	1	1	1	5	0	44.9
J. SternerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12.1
S. BarlowRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	0	7.1
H. HarrisRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	18.6
Team	9.0	4	1	1	2	6	0	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

G. Jump★RP

7.0

44.9

J. SternerRP

1.0

12.1

S. BarlowRP

0.2

7.1

H. HarrisRP

0.1

18.6

Team

9.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
N. Hoerner★2B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	2	0	25.9
SPRINT28.278
P. Crow-Armstrong★CF	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	43.5
SPRINT29.294
A. Bregman★3B	0-4	4	0	0	1	0	0	1	27.4
SPRINT25.818
S. Suzuki★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	33.0
SPRINT27.457
I. Happ★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	26.8
C. Kelly★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.7
M. Busch★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	11.1
SPRINT25.716
K. Alcantara★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.4
D. Swanson★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.1
M. ConfortoDH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.4
M. BallesterosDH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0

Team	4-29	29	1	4	1	0	2	6	—

Batting

Analytics

Player