Matchup orbital
1
HOU
HOU
12-21
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME
3
BOS
BOS
13-19
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
BOS wins
HOU 1 · BOS 3 (by 2)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked BOS +9pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
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HOU12-21
HOU
13-19BOS
BOS
Recap · MLB
oston Red Sox held off Houston Astros, 3–1.
BOS +1.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 5.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Current series
BOS leads series 1-0
HOU1@BOS3todayHOU@BOSupcomingHOU@BOSupcomingSeason series
HOU leads series 3-1
BOS1@HOU8BOS2@HOU9BOS4@HOU6HOU1@BOS3todayHOU@BOSupcomingHOU@BOSupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
HOU -1.5
Total
9.0
High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
HOU+10250%BOS-12255%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 14 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
9.0
-0.5 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 3rd Inning
HOU
C. Correa
SSBatter of the game
3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS
M. Burrows
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 8 H · 1 BB
BOS
R. Anthony
LFBatter of the game
3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS
J. Bennett
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB
How it ended
BOS beat HOU 3-1. Duran's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).
Win probability
BOS vs HOU
Score progression
1 lead change
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCorrea · homered to left center (359 feet).
Duran · homered to right center (407 feet), Narváez scored and Durbin scored.
Mayer · singled to center.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 |
Period scoring
HOU won 0 · BOS won 1
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Correa 1
Duran 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Game flow · key plays
- T8
Smith popped out to first.
HOU 1·BOS 3
+8pp
- B4
Mayer singled to center.
HOU 1·BOS 3
+9pp
- B3
Duran homered to right center (407 feet), Narváez scored and Durbin scored.
HOU 1·BOS 3
+18pp
- B3
Durbin singled to center, Narváez to third.
HOU 1·BOS 0
+11pp
- T3
Correa homered to left center (359 feet).
HOU 1·BOS 0
−11pp
- B2
Mayer grounded into double play, third to shortstop to first, Story out at second.
HOU 0·BOS 0
−8pp
Team stats
HOU
Away
Stat
BOS
Home
11
Hits
10
0
Errors
0
1
Runs
3
Player box score
HOU
12-21
C. Correa★
SS
OPS
1.800
H-AB
3-5
R
1
RBI
1
HR
1
Y. Alvarez★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-5
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
I. Paredes★
3B
OPS
1.417
H-AB
2-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
C. Walker★
1B
OPS
0.833
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Altuve★
2B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
Y. Diaz★
C
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
C. Smith★
RF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
B. Matthews★
LF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
D. Harris★
LF
OPS
1.000
H-AB
1-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
S. Whitcomb
3B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
C. Vazquez
C
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
11-36
R
1
RBI
1
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C. Correa★SS | 3-5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.800 |
Y. Alvarez★LF | 0-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
I. Paredes★3B | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.417 |
C. Walker★1B | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.833 |
J. Altuve★2B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
Y. Diaz★C | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
C. Smith★RF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
B. Matthews★LF | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
D. Harris★LF | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
S. Whitcomb3B | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
C. VazquezC | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 11-36 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
M. Burrows★
SP
IP
6.0
H
8
ER
3
K
3
B. Sousa
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
1
B. King
RP
IP
1.0
H
2
ER
0
K
0
IP
8.0
H
10
ER
3
K
4
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
M. Burrows★SP | 6.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 |
B. SousaRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
B. KingRP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 8.0 | 10 | 3 | 4 |
BOS
13-19
J. Duran★
LF
OPS
1.250
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
3
HR
1
W. Contreras★
1B
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
R. Anthony★
LF
OPS
1.500
H-AB
3-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
W. Abreu★
RF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
T. Story★
SS
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
M. Mayer★
2B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
C. Rafaela★
CF
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
C. Narvaez★
C
OPS
0.333
H-AB
0-2
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
C. Durbin★
3B
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
10-31
R
3
RBI
3
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J. Duran★LF | 1-4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1.250 |
W. Contreras★1B | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
R. Anthony★LF | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.500 |
W. Abreu★RF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
T. Story★SS | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
M. Mayer★2B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
C. Rafaela★CF | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
C. Narvaez★C | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
C. Durbin★3B | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| Team | 10-31 | 3 | 3 | 1 | — |
J. Bennett★
SP
IP
5.0
H
5
ER
1
K
3
Z. Kelly
RP
IP
1.1
H
2
ER
0
K
2
D. Coulombe
RP
IP
0.2
H
1
ER
0
K
0
G. Whitlock
RP
IP
1.0
H
2
ER
0
K
0
A. Chapman
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
0
K
1
IP
9.0
H
11
ER
1
K
6
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
J. Bennett★SP | 5.0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
Z. KellyRP | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
D. CoulombeRP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
G. WhitlockRP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
A. ChapmanRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 11 | 1 | 6 |
Betting line
HOU -1.5·O/U 9·HOU +102/BOS -122