Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — May 1, 2026

FINAL+2BOS

HOU

12-21

BOS

13-19

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

34,630 attended

Line movement

62 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.5 · -0.5

BOS no-vig %

52.6%

open 53.2% · -0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.6%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
57.6%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.1%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.1%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.60

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

BOS vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
8.0± 1.4low
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.7± 3.6low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.6± 2.6low

Hits

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 0.9high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.4± 2.6high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.1± 2.4high
Caleb DurbinBOS
2.0± 3.2high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.8± 1.9high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
0.7± 1.3high
Marcelo MayerBOS
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.2± 2.5medium
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.8± 2.6low
Jake BennettBOS
2.7± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

BOS

.727

OPS

◀

.718

.690

.317

OBP

◀

.319

.311

4.47

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.89

4.84

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.85

1.41

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

HOU 1 · BOS 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
BOS	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CorreaSS	.288	5	1	3	1	1	0	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.341	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Paredes3B	.265	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
C. Walker1B	.294	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. Altuve2B	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
Y. DiazC	.250	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. SmithRF	.211	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. MatthewsCF	.210	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. HarrisLF	.192	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Whitcomb3B	.083	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. JohnsonCF	.154	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. VazquezC	.320	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	1	11	1	1	2	6

Player

.288

.341

.265

.294

.250

.250

.211

.210

.192

.083

.154

.320

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BurrowsSP	6.0	8	3	3	1	3	94
B. SousaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
B. KingRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	14
Team	8.0	10	3	3	1	4	120

Player

M. BurrowsSP

6.0

B. SousaRP

1.0

B. KingRP

1.0

Team

8.0

120

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DuranLF	.173	4	1	1	3	1	0	0
W. Contreras1B	.264	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. AnthonyLF	.230	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
W. AbreuRF	.297	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. StorySS	.206	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. Mayer2B	.253	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.265	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.227	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. Durbin3B	.176	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		31	3	10	3	1	1	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BennettSP	5.0	5	1	1	2	3	85
Z. KellyRP	1.1	2	0	0	0	2	19
D. CoulombeRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	8
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	16
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
Team	9.0	11	1	1	2	6	144

Team

HOU

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

BOS vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.