Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at POR?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+6PHX

PHX

4-8

7872

POR

6-6

WNBAFri, Jun 5FinalSeriesPHX leads series 1-0VegasPOR -4.5

PHX · top performer

DeWanna Bonner

F · #24

19.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Karlie Samuelson

G · #44

13.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 36pp · 3rd Quarter · 1:39

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BonnerF · #24	34	19	6-15	3-8	4-4	+12	5	5
N. MackF · #4	29	16	7-11	—	2-2	+14	4	2
N. BrochantF · #1	28	11	4-6	2-2	1-2	+9	2	2
J. NogicG · #29	30	9	3-11	0-7	3-4	+10	2	6
M. Akoa MakaniG · #8	31	11	4-8	1-1	2-2	+9	4	2
Bench
V. AyayiF · #11	4	2	0-1	—	2-2	-5	2	0
M. SuarezF · #77	11	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	0	1
K. LinskensC · #31	6	0	0-3	—	—	-4	1	0
L. HeldG · #10	20	8	1-5	1-2	5-5	-7	1	3
Q. CarterG · #20	9	2	1-1	—	0-1	-6	3	0
Team		78	26-62	7-21	19-22		24	21
DNP: A. Thomas, S. Whitcomb, K. Copper

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	27	6	2-9	0-4	2-2	-17	4	2
E. EngstlerF · #21	17	3	1-5	0-2	1-2	-19	5	1
GustafsonC · #17	22	7	3-5	1-2	—	-15	2	0
S. BarkerG · #3	29	15	6-10	2-4	1-2	-7	7	3
C. LeiteG · #0	24	7	2-6	1-2	2-3	-19	2	4
Bench
F. BuhnerF · #20	15	5	1-5	0-1	3-3	+12	4	0
N. PuochF · #13	13	0	0-4	0-1	—	+2	1	0
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	18	5	1-4	1-4	2-2	+9	3	3
K. SamuelsonG · #44	19	13	4-5	4-5	1-1	+11	3	1
T. OblakG · #7	16	11	4-4	1-1	2-2	+13	1	4
Team		72	24-57	10-26	14-17		32	18
DNP: S. Williams, H. Winterburn

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

POR

Home

26-62

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

24-57

FG %

7-21

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-26

19-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX leads series 1-0

Jun 6

PHX78@

POR72today

Aug 16

POR@

PHXupcoming

Sep 18

PHX@

PORupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

POR -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

160.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

3.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

PHX+15040%

POR-18064%

30· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet POR -4.5↗SpreadBet POR -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

160.5

-1.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat POR 78-72. D. Bonner led with 19 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. Megan Gustafson's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 17 REB · 17 AST

GS 61

Bench(5)

12 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST

GS 2

PORstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

38 PTS · 20 REB · 10 AST

GS 21

Bench(5)

34 PTS · 12 REB · 8 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX3rd Quarter · 1:39 · 55-48

+36pp→ 85% WP

Megan Gustafson · enters the game for Luisa Geiselsoder

PHX4th Quarter · 2:30 · 68-67

+24pp→ 64% WP

Carla Leite · out of bounds lost ball turnover

PHX4th Quarter · 16.7 · 77-72

+21pp→ 100% WP

Carla Leite · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	21	17	17	23	78
POR	16	18	17	21	72

Period scoring

PHX won 2 · POR won 1

Brochant 5

Leite 5

Bonner 5

Barker 4

Brochant 5

Samuelson 6

Bonner 9

Makani 34

PHX

POR

Shooting comparison

PHX

POR

42%

26-62

42%

24-57

33%

7-21

3PT

38%

10-26

86%

19-22

82%

14-17

Play-by-play · 402 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 78·POR 72
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 78·POR 72
−0.5pp
Q4·14.6
Jovana Nogic enters the game for Lexi Held
·
PHX 78·POR 72
Q4·14.6
Carla Leite out of bounds lost ball turnover
PHX 78·POR 72
−1pp
Q4·16.7
Noemie Brochant makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 78·POR 72
Q4·16.7
Mercury offensive team rebound
PHX 77·POR 72
+0.7pp
Q4·16.7
Noemie Brochant misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 77·POR 72
+0.5pp
Q4·16.7
Carla Leite personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 77·POR 72
−21pp
Q4·18.3
Sarah Ashlee Barker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Carla Leite assists)
·
PHX 77·POR 72
+1pp
Q4·25.9
Fire Full timeout
PHX 77·POR 69
Q4·25.9
Natasha Mack makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 77·POR 69
+0.5pp
Q4·25.9
Natasha Mack makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 76·POR 69
Q4·25.9
Karlie Samuelson personal foul
PHX 75·POR 69
−0.9pp
Q4·25.9
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
PHX 75·POR 69
−0.6pp
Q4·28.7
Bridget Carleton misses 24-foot turnaround jump shot
PHX 75·POR 69
−2pp
Q4·35.2
DeWanna Bonner makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 75·POR 69
+2pp
Q4·35.2
Lexi Held enters the game for Jovana Nogic
·
PHX 74·POR 69
Q4·35.2
DeWanna Bonner makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 74·POR 69
−0.6pp
Q4·35.2
Bridget Carleton personal foul
PHX 73·POR 69
−5pp
Q4·37.3
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 73·POR 69
Q4·37.3
Mercury timeout
PHX 73·POR 69
Q4·37.3
Bridget Carleton makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 73·POR 69
−5pp
Q4·37.3
Jovana Nogic enters the game for Lexi Held
·
PHX 73·POR 68
Q4·37.3
Bridget Carleton makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 73·POR 68
+1pp
Q4·37.3
Monique Akoa Makani personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 73·POR 67
−10pp
Q4·45.1
Fire Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
PHX 73·POR 67
−17pp
Q4·45.1
Monique Akoa Makani makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 73·POR 67
+2pp
Q4·45.1
Lexi Held enters the game for Jovana Nogic
·
PHX 72·POR 67
Q4·45.1
Monique Akoa Makani makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 72·POR 67
−19pp
Q4·45.1
Sarah Ashlee Barker personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 71·POR 67
−7pp

Betting line

POR -4.5·O/U 160.5·PHX +150/POR -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

hoenix Mercury went into Portland Fire and beat them, 78–72.

PHX +4.5 cashed (POR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 160.5 by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

PHX

POR

eFG%

shooting

47.6%

50.9%

TOV%

ball control

14.3%

23.7%

OREB%

offensive glass

22.6%

32.0%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

30.6%

24.6%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893
Sarah Ashlee BarkerPOR · G
eFG%.60289
Nyadiew PuochPOR · F
ORB%.07482

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.8%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
63.9%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
66.7%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
64.5%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+4.06

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-115

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at POR?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.4pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

PHX

no live price

POR

★ best

-135DraftKings

edge +5.4pp · implied 54.1%

Book	PHX	POR	Best edge
DraftKings	+105	-135★	+5.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

POR vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Kahleah CopperPHX
20.2± 8.1high
Carla LeitePOR
16.3± 6.3high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
15.3± 7.0high

Rebounds

Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.5± 2.7high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
7.0± 2.1high
Natasha MackPHX
6.9± 3.4high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.3± 3.9high
Carla LeitePOR
6.2± 2.8high
Jordan HarrisonPOR
3.3± 1.1low

Blocks

Emily EngstlerPOR
1.3± 1.0high
Natasha MackPHX
1.1± 0.9high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
0.7± 0.4high

Steals

Bridget CarletonPOR
1.7± 1.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.7± 0.8high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.4± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Phoenix MercuryPortland Fire

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop