May 23, 25sim 97
1870
8(H)76
EloWin probTime of year
PHX
64Live3:55 - 4th
POR
64Updated 11:58 PM ET
Live read
DeWanna Bonner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Marta Suarez assists) → win prob 52→66% PHX
3:55 - 4THTied
PHX
3-8
6464
POR
6-5
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 385 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
4 of 16 players in cohort
Natasha MackPHX · FTS%.75199+
Bridget CarletonPOR · FAST/TO2.688
Emily EngstlerPOR · FeFG%.56079
DeWanna BonnerPHX · FDRB%.20176
Updated 0s ago
PHX · top performer
DeWanna Bonner
F · #24
15.4Game score
15
Pts
4
Reb
5
Ast
POR · top performer
Karlie Samuelson
G · #44
14.4Game score
13
Pts
3
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Portland Fire · live
WNBA · Box score
3:55 - 4thTied
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 30 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +8 | |
DRB%.20176 ORB%.03243 AST/TO1.126 | ||||||||
| 25 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +8 | |
TS%.75199+ eFG%.72799+ ORB%.14395 | ||||||||
| 24 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 27 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 26 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 19 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| Team | 64 | 22 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 12 | ||
| DNP: A. Thomas, S. Whitcomb, K. Copper | ||||||||
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 23 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -13 | |
| 17 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -19 | |
| 22 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -15 | |
| 25 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 21 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -15 | |
| 15 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +12 | |
| 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 13 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +13 | |
| 15 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +15 | |
| 15 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +13 | |
| Team | 64 | 30 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 16 | ||
| DNP: S. Williams, H. Winterburn | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
42
20
Ast
16
Season series
Jun 6PHX@PORtoday
PHX@PORtodayAug 16POR@PHXupcoming
POR@PHXupcomingSep 18PHX@PORupcoming
PHX@PORupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
POR -4.5
Half-pt below key 5
Total
160.5
Standard · -4.5 vs avg
3.0pt· 6.2h
Moneyline
PHX+15040%POR-18064%30· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
4.5
0.0 since open
Total
160.5
-1.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
3:55 - 4thGame flowPHX ↔ POR
Recent swing: 14pp · 4th Quarter · 4:13
Just happened
DeWanna Bonner · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Marta Suarez assists)
PHXD. Bonner
FLeading · 3:55 - 4th · 30 min
15 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST
On pace: 20 PTS · 5 REB · 7 AST
PORK. Samuelson
GLeading · 3:55 - 4th · 15 min
13 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 35 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST
How it's going
Tied 64-64 · 3:55 - 4th.
Win probability
POR vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
52 PTS · 15 REB · 16 AST
GS 46
Bench(5)
12 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST
GS 2
PORstarters 48% of ptsStarters(5)
30 PTS · 18 REB · 9 AST
GS 18
Bench(5)
32 PTS · 12 REB · 7 AST
GS 22
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPOR4th Quarter · 9:09 · 55-51
+11pp→ 24% WP
Emily Engstler · blocks DeWanna Bonner 's 7-foot driving layup
POR4th Quarter · 5:20 · 61-59
+10pp→ 27% WP
Luisa Geiselsoder · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Teja Oblak assists)
PHX4th Quarter · 4:13 · 64-62
+14pp→ 66% WP
DeWanna Bonner · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Marta Suarez assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 21 | 17 | 17 | 9 | 64 |
| POR | 16 | 18 | 17 | 11 | 64 |
Period scoring
PHX won 1 · POR won 2
21
16
Q1
Brochant 5
Leite 5
17
18
Q2
Bonner 5
Barker 4
17
17
Q3
Brochant 5
Samuelson 6
9
11
Q4
Bonner 5
Barker 5
PHX
POR
Shooting comparison
PHX
POR
41%
24-59
FG
42%
22-52
35%
7-20
3PT
38%
8-21
90%
9-10
FT
80%
12-15
Play-by-play · 342 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·4:13
DeWanna Bonner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Marta Suarez assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 64·POR 62
−14pp
- Q4·4:40
Teja Oblak makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Karlie Samuelson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 61·POR 62
+14pp
- Q4·4:54
Sarah Ashlee Barker defensive rebound
PHX 61·POR 59
+2pp
- Q4·4:57
Marta Suarez misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
PHX 61·POR 59
+5pp
- Q4·5:20
Luisa Geiselsoder makes 27-foot three point jumper (Teja Oblak assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 61·POR 59
+10pp
- Q4·5:39
Bridget Carleton defensive rebound
PHX 61·POR 56
+1pp
- Q4·5:42
Jovana Nogic misses 28-foot three point jumper
PHX 61·POR 56
+3pp
- Q4·5:46
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 61·POR 56
- Q4·5:46
Bridget Carleton enters the game for Nyadiew Puoch
·
PHX 61·POR 56
- Q4·5:46
Mercury offensive team rebound
PHX 61·POR 56
−3pp
- Q4·5:47
Monique Akoa Makani misses driving layup
PHX 61·POR 56
+3pp
- Q4·6:07
Noemie Brochant enters the game for Quionche Carter
·
PHX 61·POR 56
- Q4·6:07
Karlie Samuelson enters the game for Frieda Buhner
·
PHX 61·POR 56
- Q4·6:07
Frieda Buhner traveling turnover
PHX 61·POR 56
−5pp
- Q4·6:24
Marta Suarez offensive foul turnover
PHX 61·POR 56
- Q4·6:24
Marta Suarez offensive foul
PHX 61·POR 56
+4pp
- Q4·6:37
Sarah Ashlee Barker makes driving layup (Teja Oblak assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 61·POR 56
−6pp
- Q4·6:44
Luisa Geiselsoder enters the game for Megan Gustafson
·
PHX 61·POR 54
- Q4·6:44
Jovana Nogic personal foul
PHX 61·POR 54
+2pp
- Q4·6:56
DeWanna Bonner makes running layup (Jovana Nogic assists)
·
PHX 61·POR 54
−3pp
- Q4·7:00
Monique Akoa Makani defensive rebound
PHX 59·POR 54
−1pp
- Q4·7:03
DeWanna Bonner blocks Frieda Buhner 's 23-foot three point jumper
·
PHX 59·POR 54
−4pp
- Q4·7:11
Monique Akoa Makani enters the game for Lexi Held
·
PHX 59·POR 54
- Q4·7:11
Teja Oblak enters the game for Carla Leite
·
PHX 59·POR 54
- Q4·7:11
Quionche Carter personal foul
PHX 59·POR 54
+1pp
- Q4·7:29
Sarah Ashlee Barker defensive rebound
PHX 59·POR 54
+1pp
- Q4·7:30
Jovana Nogic misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHX 59·POR 54
+3pp
- Q4·7:43
Quionche Carter offensive rebound
PHX 59·POR 54
−4pp
- Q4·7:47
Quionche Carter misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
PHX 59·POR 54
+7pp
- Q4·7:47
Marta Suarez enters the game for Natasha Mack
·
PHX 59·POR 54
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
POR
Home
24-59
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
22-52
41
FG %
42
7-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-21
9-10
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-15
20
Assists
16
12
Turnovers
16
Betting line
POR -4.5·O/U 160.5·PHX +150/POR -180
Live · model lean3:55 - 4thPolls every 30s
53.7%
POR wins · current
Pre-game: 57.4% POR
PHX 64 · 64 POR
Tied
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q4away leadsPOR leads
Key moments · live
newest firstEnsemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
57.7%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
67.5%
P(POR win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
67.7%
P(POR win)
35%
weight
Pace Efficiency
68.1%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.25 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Live · model intelligence
calibrated · 90d
Win prob · home
51.6%
-15.9ppvs pre-game · POR favored
Leverage
±13.0
pp · next play
peak · 100/100
Tied
Live edge
—
No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.
Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.
Receipts
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+4.06
CLV pp · steam
Open price
-115
Close price
-135
Open no-vig
51.1%
Close no-vig
55.1%
Market steamed in our direction
Line shop
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+3.3pp
best edge · POR · DraftKings
PHX
no live price
POR
★ best-135DraftKings
edge +3.3pp · implied 54.1%
| Book | PHX | POR | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +105 | -135★ | +3.3 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player props
Player projections
POR vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.5± 6.7low
- Carla LeitePOR14.7± 6.8low
- Bridget CarletonPOR14.5± 6.3low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 3.7low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX6.9± 4.3low
- DeWanna BonnerPHX4.5± 3.1low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.5± 2.5low
- Carla LeitePOR5.0± 4.7low
- Teja OblakPOR3.4± 4.6low
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR2.3± 1.8low
- Natasha MackPHX1.5± 1.9low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.7± 1.2low
Steals
- Bridget CarletonPOR2.1± 1.5low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.8± 1.7low
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.5± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team rate stats
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
POR
41.2%
FG%
44.3
▶45.7%
30.4%
3PT %
32.9
▶34.6%
82.0
PPG
84.8
▶83.0
17.6
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.1
12.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.7