HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBTop 6
    CIN 3@STL 4
    +30.5ppmedium
  • MLBTop 7
    CLE 2@TEX 3
    +38.6ppmedium
  • MLBBot 2
    NYM 1@SD 0
    -12.9pphigh
  • MLBTop 3
    KC 2@MIN 0
    -48.9pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    MIL 1@COL 3
    +64.5pplow
  • MLBTop 2
    WSH 2@ARI 0
    -46.9pplow
  • MLBEnd 6
    ATH 1@HOU 5
    +42.0pplow
  • NBAHalftime
    NY 56@SA 52
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THE ONE Analytics
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MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
LAA logo
LAA
0
LiveTop 1st
LAD logo
LAD
0
Updated 10:12 PM ET
TOP 1STTied
LAA

LAA

24-39

0
0
LAD

LAD

40-23

MLB · At bat

Top 1·0-1·0 outs

Pitcher· LAD

R. Sasaki

0.0 IP, 0 ER

Batter· LAA

Z. Neto

0-0

LastPitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

Live · model leanTop 1stPolls every 30s

60.9%

LAD wins · current

Pre-game: 77.3% LAD

LAA 0 · 0 LAD

Tied

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.22

R. Detmers

2-5 · 4.63 ERA

vs

R. Sasaki

3-3 · 4.59 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

LAD no-vig %

63.6%

open 62.2% · +1.4

+0.5-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL67.6%58.2%LAD NO-VIG %Jun 4, 10 PMJun 5, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One model★ Lock
Fri, Jun 5
LAA

LAA

Angels

26-43

vs77.3%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

46-28

LAD
LAA 22.7%win prob77.3% LAD
LAD 1592 · LAA 1424Box score→

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

69.5%

-5.6ppvs pre-game · LAD favored

Calibrated · at ~64% reads, home has won 64% (185)

Leverage

±6.2

pp · next play

medium · 38/100

Tied · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

53%Last 7 · 54-47
60%Last 30 · 308-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.7pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

LAA

no live price

LAD

★ best
-199DraftKings

edge +13.7pp · implied 63.6%

BookLAALADBest edge
DraftKings+163-199★+13.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Fri, Jun 5·Top 1st/SeriesLAD lead series 3-1-1/VegasLAD -199
Updated 0s ago

LAA · top performer

LAA
Zach Neto

Zach Neto

SS

—OPS

0-0

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

DH

—OPS

0-0

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers · live

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Top 1stTied
LAA24-39
0
0
LAD40-23
LAA24-39·LAD40-23
LAA

LAA

24-39

0
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-000000000.0
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-000000000.0
SPRINT28.688
W. MecklerW. Meckler★LF
0-000000000.0
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-000000000.0
SPRINT27.867
D. WaltonD. Walton★3B
0-000000000.0
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
0-000000000.0
N. MadrigalN. Madrigal★3B
0-000000000.0
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-000000000.0
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-000000000.0
Team0-00000000—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
R. DetmersR. Detmers★SP
0.00000000.0
Team0.0000000—
LAD

LAD

40-23

0
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★DH
0-000000000.0
SPRINT2744
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-000000000.0
SPRINT28.175
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-000000000.0
SPRINT24.74
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-000000000.0
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-000000000.0
SPRINT26.123
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-000000000.0
A. CallA. Call★LF
0-000000000.0
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
0-000000000.0
S. EspinalS. Espinal★3B
0-000000000.0
Team0-00000000—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
R. SasakiR. Sasaki★SP
0.00000000.0
Team0.0000000—

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

0

Hits

0

0

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Season series

LAD lead series 3-0

May 16LADLAD6@LAALAA0
May 17LADLAD15@LAALAA2
May 17LADLAD10@LAALAA1
Jun 6LAALAA@LADLADtoday
Jun 7LAALAA@LADLADupcoming
Jun 7LAALAA@LADLADupcoming

Season series

LAD lead series 3-1-1

Feb 21LADLAD15@LAALAA2
Mar 1LAALAA3@LADLAD4
Mar 23LADLAD13@LAALAA5
Mar 24LAALAA7@LADLAD7
Mar 25LAALAA3@LADLAD0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

↗1.5pt· 2.5h

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 2.5h

Moneyline

LAALAA+16338%
LADLAD-19967%

↘13· 2.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

-0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
LAALAASP
R. Detmers

R. Detmers

#48 · 2-5

ERA

4.63

K

82

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/30@TBTB5.0 IP · 3 ER · 7 KW(2-5)
5/24vsTEXTEX8.0 IP · 1 ER · 14 K-
5/20vsATHATH5.2 IP · 8 ER · 8 KL(1-5)
VS
LADLADSP
R. Sasaki

R. Sasaki

#11 · 3-3

ERA

4.59

K

50

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/31vsPHIPHI5.1 IP · 1 ER · 7 K-
5/23@MILMIL5.0 IP · 2 ER · 4 KW(3-3)
5/17@LAALAA7.0 IP · 1 ER · 8 KW(2-3)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
LAALAA3L · 6R
  1. 1

    Z. Neto

    SS · #9

    R
  2. 2

    M. Trout

    CF · #27

    R
  3. 3

    W. Meckler

    LF · #53

    L
  4. 4

    J. Adell

    RF · #7

    R
  5. 5

    D. Walton

    3B · #35

    L
  6. 6

    O. Peraza

    1B · #2

    R
  7. 7

    N. Madrigal

    2B · #17

    R
  8. 8

    L. O'Hoppe

    C · #14

    R
  9. 9

    A. Frazier

    DH · #20

    L
LADLAD3L · 6R
  1. 1

    S. Ohtani

    DH · #17

    L
  2. 2

    A. Pages

    CF · #44

    R
  3. 3

    F. Freeman

    1B · #5

    L
  4. 4

    M. Betts

    SS · #50

    R
  5. 5

    K. Tucker

    RF · #23

    L
  6. 6

    W. Smith

    C · #16

    R
  7. 7

    A. Call

    LF · #12

    R
  8. 8

    M. Rojas

    2B · #72

    R
  9. 9

    S. Espinal

    3B · #21

    R

Linescore (innings)

Team1R
LAA00
LAD—0

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

0

Runs

0

0

Hits

0

0

Errors

0

0

TB

0

0

HR

0

0

BB

0

0

K

0

0

LOB

0

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8.5·LAA +163/LAD -199

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recent pitches · last 3

ESPN PBP · live
  1. Strike SwingingSL 87#1
  2. Foul BallFF 97#2
  3. Foul BallFF 99#3

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

The receipts

Why we like LAD.

LAD's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.

+11.5

pp edge · LAD

+2.26

CLV pp · steam

5.0u · large
on LAD

77.3%

±4.9pp band

5u large — +10.7pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+13.7pp

+2.2pp post-cal

Kelly

32.2%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.50

+10.7pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 11.5pp · LAD over LAA

  • ▲
    Model confidence90% conf

    LAD clears the model's lock threshold.

    +4.2pp
  • ▲
    Venue split64% conf

    LAD's venue form is 42.9pp stronger in the recent sample.

    +4.2pp
  • ▲
    Line steam69% conf

    The market moved 1.4pp toward LAD since open.

    +1.7pp
  • ▲
    Head to head48% conf

    LAD has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.

    +1.7pp
  • ▼
    Rest advantage65% conf

    LAA has the rest edge entering this game.

    -0.3pp

Open price

-186

Close price

-207

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

64.5%

Market steamed in our direction

Player projections

LAD vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.9± 4.2low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.5± 2.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.4low

Hits

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.2± 1.8low
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.4± 2.1high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.1± 2.0high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.9± 0.7high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    0.8± 1.8low

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.8± 3.9low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.2± 2.5low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    3.1± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

77.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    75.1%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    75.2%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    75.6%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 976 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 19, 26sim 83
    11
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 83
    271
    19(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 80
    13
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 80
    35
    30(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 31, 26sim 78
    32
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 77
    273
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs