MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Busch tripled to right, Happ scored. → win prob 78→88% CHC

BOT 4TH+2CHC

ATH

29-31

CHC

32-29

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 981 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Bottom 44-22 outs

Pitcher· ATH

J. Springs

3.2 IP, 3 K, 4 ER

Batter· CHC

M. Amaya

0-1

Live · model leanBot 4thPolls every 30s

64.8%

CHC wins · current

Pre-game: 58.4% CHC

ATH 2 · 4 CHC

CHC +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4

away leadsCHC leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCHCBottom 4th Inning · 2-4
+9pp→ 88% WP
Busch · tripled to right, Happ scored.
SwingCHCBottom 3rd Inning · 2-3
+19pp→ 75% WP
Crow-Armstrong · homered to right center (378 feet), Hoerner scored.
Lead flipCHCBottom 2nd Inning · 2-1
+11pp→ 54% WP
Suzuki · homered to left center (408 feet).

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.77

J. Springs

3-6 · 4.07 ERA

C. Rea

5-3 · 4.70 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open +1.5 · -3.0

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CHC no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.0%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
58.0%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.3%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.9%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

95.5%

+37.5ppvs pre-game · CHC favored

Leverage

±3.3

pp · next play

low · 12/100

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.3pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

ATH

no live price

CHC

★ best

-136DraftKings

edge +3.3pp · implied 55.1%

Book	ATH	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	+113	-136★	+3.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

CHC vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shota ImanagaCHC
5.8± 4.7low
Jameson TaillonCHC
4.9± 2.9low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.8± 2.0low

Hits

Nick KurtzATH
1.1± 1.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
1.1± 0.8high
Zack GelofATH
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Nick KurtzATH
2.1± 2.0high
Ian HappCHC
2.1± 2.5high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.0± 2.1high

RBIs

Ian HappCHC
0.9± 1.7high
Michael BuschCHC
0.7± 0.9high
Nick KurtzATH
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Jameson TaillonCHC
3.4± 3.0low
Shota ImanagaCHC
2.9± 4.0low
Colin ReaCHC
2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

ATH

Athletics

29-38

vs58.4%CHC

CHC★

Cubs

33-35

ATH 41.6%win prob58.4% CHC

CHC 1499 · ATH 1466Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. Cortes★RF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.4
SPRINT25.716
N. Kurtz★1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.1
SPRINT26.632
S. Langeliers★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.3
T. Soderstrom★LF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	2.3
SPRINT26.735
B. Rooker★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.3
L. Butler★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.7
Z. Gelof★3B	1-1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	14.4
SPRINT28.891
J. McNeil★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.7
A. Williams★2B	1-1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	8.8
Team	4-15	15	2	4	2	0	2	2	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

C. Cortes★RF

1-2

1.4

N. Kurtz★1B

0-1

0.1

S. Langeliers★C

0-2

4.3

T. Soderstrom★LF

1-2

2.3

B. Rooker★DH

0-2

4.3

L. Butler★RF

0-2

4.7

Z. Gelof★3B

1-1

14.4

J. McNeil★2B

0-2

7.7

A. Williams★2B

1-1

8.8

Team

4-15

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
J. Springs★SP	3.2	7	4	4	0	3	2	27.3
Team	3.2	7	4	4	0	3	2	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

J. Springs★SP

3.2

27.3

Team

3.2

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
N. Hoerner★2B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	21.2
SPRINT28.278
P. Crow-Armstrong★CF	1-2	2	1	1	2	1	0	1	17.1
SPRINT29.294
A. Bregman★3B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.6
S. Suzuki★RF	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	6.7
SPRINT27.457
I. Happ★LF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	8.8
SPRINT27.662
D. Swanson★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	6.0
M. Busch★1B	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	1	2.8
SPRINT25.716
P. Ramirez★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
M. Amaya★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	2.2
Team	7-17	17	4	7	4	2	0	3	—

Batting

Analytics

Player