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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2BAL
BAL

BAL

29-32

4
2
BOS

BOS

25-34

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
35,004 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BOS no-vig %

55.1%

open 54.2% · +0.9

+0.5-2.0BOS SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL59.1%50.2%BOS NO-VIG %MODEL 57.6%Jun 1, 4 PMJun 2, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 4 · BOS 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0121000004
BOS1000100002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 63-43
61%Last 30 · 321-203
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 985 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jun 3, 26sim 97
    11
    2(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 2, 26sim 96
    73
    17(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 3, 26sim 96
    75
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 96
    181
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 2, 26sim 95
    112
    16(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 95
    210
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.5pp

best edge · BOS · DraftKings

BAL

no live price

BOS

★ best
-136DraftKings

edge +2.5pp · implied 55.1%

BookBALBOSBest edge
DraftKings+113-136★+2.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Tue, Jun 2·Final/SeriesBAL leads series 1-0/VegasBOS -136

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 4–2.

BAL +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1C. EarlyBOS−32.4pp
  2. 2A. RutschmanBAL+17.7pp
  3. 3S. BazBAL+15.6pp

BAL · top performer

BAL
Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela

Ceddanne Rafaela

CF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL29-32
4
2
BOS25-34
BAL29-32·BOS25-34
BAL

BAL

29-32

4
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-440000136.5
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-440100004.7
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
1-3311001017.7
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
2-4412210110.8
SPRINT25.29
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
1-440100025.1
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-441111028.2
SPRINT2872
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
1-221100009.0
SPRINT27.662
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
1-330100020.7
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-330110001.4
SPRINT28.175
C. CowserC. CowserRF
0-220000011.1
Team9-33334942211—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
S. BazS. Baz★SP
7.042226015.6
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.01000107.9
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.000002010.2
Team9.0522290—
BOS

BOS

25-34

2
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-441100030.7
SPRINT29.294
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
2-4402000014.2
SPRINT28.790
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-3300100114.3
SPRINT2872
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
0-3300001215.0
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
0-440000038.4
M. GasperM. Gasper★C
1-331100104.8
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-3300000015.6
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
0-220010000.8
SPRINT27.560
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-330100004.9
Team5-2929252029—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
C. EarlyC. Early★SP
5.164416232.4
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.20000304.4
T. SamaniegoT. SamaniegoRP
2.03001201.0
Team9.09442112—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • S. Baz
    94 pitches·27% CSW
    • KC
      41%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      32%·95.3 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      11%·87.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      36%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      36%·86.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      21%·95.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      73%·88.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      27%·95.1 mph·0% whiff

BOS

  • C. Early
    96 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.1 mph·21% whiff
    • SI
      27%·92.7 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      9%·86.3 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      8%·81.1 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      4%·82.0 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Samaniego
    34 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.7 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      21%·94.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      15%·82.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      9%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      28%·92.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      12%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.7 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      4%·78.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

5

4

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

BAL leads series 1-0

Jun 2BALBAL4@BOSBOS2today
Jun 3BALBAL1@BOSBOS8
Jun 4BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 24BOSBOS3@BALBAL10
Apr 25BOSBOS17@BALBAL1
Apr 26BOSBOS5@BALBAL3
Jun 2BALBAL4@BOSBOS2today
Jun 3BALBAL1@BOSBOS8
Jun 4BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jul 20BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jul 21BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jul 22BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Sep 3BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming
Sep 4BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming
Sep 5BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming
Sep 6BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL+11347%
BOSBOS-13658%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 21pp · Top 3rd Inning

BALBAL
P. Alonso

P. Alonso

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

BOSBOS
C. Rafaela

C. Rafaela

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Early

C. Early

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BAL beat BOS 4-2. Alonso's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 76% WP

Duran · tripled to left.

BALTop 3rd Inning · 3-1
+21pp→ 59% WP

Alonso · homered to left (400 feet), Rutschman scored.

BALBottom 7th Inning · 4-2
+14pp→ 83% WP

Kiner-Falefa · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Gasper out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0121000004
BOS1000100002

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

4

Runs

2

9

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

16

TB

8

2

HR

0

2

BB

2

11

K

9

11

LOB

9

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 8.5·BAL +113/BOS -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

BOS vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

BAL won 3 · BOS won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Abreu 1

1
0

Inn 2

Umpire 1

2
0

Inn 3

Alonso 2

1
0

Inn 4

Alexander 1

0
1

Inn 5

Mayer 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

BAL
BOS

Play-by-play · 534 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  2. B9

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  3. B9

    Gasper flied out to right.

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  9. B9

    Rico Garcia pitches to Mickey Gasper

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  10. B9

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  11. B9

    Yoshida struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

    −3pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  17. B9

    Rico Garcia pitches to Masataka Yoshida

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  18. B9

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  19. B9

    Contreras struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

    −6pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  24. B9

    Rico Garcia pitches to Willson Contreras

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  25. B9

    Garcia relieved Kittredge

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  28. T9

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

  29. T9

    Ward struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

    +0.9pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 2

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.87

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BOS vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.5± 3.1low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.1high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 2.4high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.8± 2.6high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.7± 1.9high
  • Colton CowserBAL
    0.7± 1.5high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.9%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    57.5%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.7%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.3%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.