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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PHI
CIN

CIN

24-24

4
5
PHI

PHI

25-23

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
40,065 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.0 · +0.5

PHI no-vig %

53.1%

open 55.1% · -2.0

+2.0-0.5PHI SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 8.5TOTAL59.1%49.1%PHI NO-VIG %MODEL 52.4%May 17, 4 PMMay 18, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

CIN 4 · PHI 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0200001104
PHI200001025

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.8pp

best edge · CIN · DraftKings

CIN

★ best
+162DraftKings

edge +11.8pp · implied 35.8%

PHI

no live price

BookCINPHIBest edge
DraftKings+162★-216+11.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Mon, May 18·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -125

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Cincinnati Reds, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

PHI +1.5 cashed (CIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 10.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Sal Stewart

Sal Stewart

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Alec Bohm

Alec Bohm

3B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN24-24
4
5
PHI25-23
CIN24-24·PHI25-23
CIN

CIN

24-24

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
1-44110002
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-33000011
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
1-33011010
SPRINT28.483
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
0-33000010
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
2-44221100
SPRINT26.530
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-44110001
SPRINT25.411
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
1-44011001
SPRINT26.735
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-33001001
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-33000000
Team6-3131464136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. LodoloN. Lodolo★SP
5.2333531
T. AntoneT. AntoneRP
0.1000100
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.2222001
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
0.1000000
Team8.0555632
PHI

PHI

25-23

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT29.798
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-33100011
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
2-33121110
SPRINT26.632
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-11101010
SPRINT28.278
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-33001000
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-33112110
SPRINT28.688
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-22000020
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
1-44010000
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
0-22000001
B. MarshB. MarshLF
0-11000000
Team5-2626555263
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. PainterA. Painter★SP
6.0322230
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0111011
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
0.2211100
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
0.1000000
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0000020
Team9.0644361

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • N. Lodolo
    97 pitches·19% CSW
    • CH
      27%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      27%·82.5 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.4 mph·8% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.1 mph·13% whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·89.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      33%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Antone
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • FC
      43%·89.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      43%·83.8 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      14%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Burke
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      83%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.4 mph·— whiff

PHI

  • A. Painter
    69 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      35%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      28%·87.6 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      17%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      12%·87.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Alvarado
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      70%·98.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      30%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Duran
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FS
      50%·99.0 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      33%·101.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·90.0 mph·— whiff
  • B. Keller
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      31%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      23%·92.8 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      23%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·96.5 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      8%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • ST
      67%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·97.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

4

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

May 18CINCIN4@PHIPHI5today
May 19CINCIN4@PHIPHI1
May 20CINCIN9@PHIPHI4

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

May 18CINCIN4@PHIPHI5today
May 19CINCIN4@PHIPHI1
May 20CINCIN9@PHIPHI4
Jul 7PHIPHI@CINCINupcoming
Jul 8PHIPHI@CINCINupcoming
Jul 9PHIPHI@CINCINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CIN -1.5

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CINCIN+10449%
PHIPHI-12556%

↗6· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

10.0

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 62pp · Bottom 8th Inning

CINCIN
S. Stewart

S. Stewart

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

N. Lodolo

N. Lodolo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 5 BB

PHIPHI
A. Bohm

A. Bohm

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

A. Painter

A. Painter

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PHI beat CIN 5-4. Stott's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (62pp).

Win probability

PHI vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 7th Inning · 3-3
+18pp→ 44% WP

Stewart · homered to right (361 feet).

CINTop 8th Inning · 4-3
+28pp→ 68% WP

Steer · doubled to left, McLain scored.

PHIBottom 8th Inning · 4-5
+62pp→ 87% WP

Stott · homered to right (360 feet), Sosa scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0200001104
PHI20000102—5

Period scoring

CIN won 2 · PHI won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Sosa 1

2
0

Inn 2

Stephenson 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Bohm 1

1
0

Inn 7

Stewart 1

1
2

Inn 8

Steer 1

Stott 2

0

Inn 9

CIN
PHI

Play-by-play · 519 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  2. T9

    Friedl grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  8. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to TJ Friedl

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  9. T9

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  10. T9

    Stephenson struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

    +5pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  14. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Tyler Stephenson

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  15. T9

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  16. T9

    Lowe struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

    +5pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 10 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  27. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Nathaniel Lowe

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  28. T9

    Duran relieved Stubbs

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  29. T9

    Harper at first base.

    CIN 4·PHI 5

  30. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CIN 4·PHI 5

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

4

Runs

5

6

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

10

TB

12

1

HR

2

3

BB

6

6

K

3

7

LOB

13

Betting line

CIN -1.5·O/U 10·CIN +104/PHI -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

PHI vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.8%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    53.8%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.2%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.81 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 23, 26sim 95
    248
    17(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 95
    53
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 95
    224
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 94
    173
    5(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 94
    159
    22(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 94
    236
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs