MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CIN

CIN

26-24

PHI

25-25

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

38,222 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 9.5 · +0.5

PHI no-vig %

57.1%

open 56.3% · +0.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
53.5%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.4%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.1%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.79

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+123

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

42.9%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.7pp

best edge · CIN · DraftKings

CIN

★ best

+130DraftKings

edge +5.7pp · implied 41.6%

PHI

no live price

Book	CIN	PHI	Best edge
DraftKings	+130★	-157	+5.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHI vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
8.1± 3.4low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.9± 3.1low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.0± 3.3low

Hits

Blake DunnCIN
1.2± 0.9high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.2± 1.3high
Alec BohmPHI
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Brandon MarshPHI
2.2± 2.2high
JJ BledayCIN
1.9± 1.6high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.1high
JJ BledayCIN
0.6± 0.7high
Sal StewartCIN
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.6low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.4± 3.1low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

PHI

.709

OPS

◀

.715

.682

.314

OBP

◀

.319

.296

4.24

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.77

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.05

1.47

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 9 · PHI 4 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	3	0	1	0	1	2	0	2	9
PHI	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. McLain2B	.208	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. De La CruzSS	.290	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. BledayLF	.299	5	2	2	0	0	0	1
S. Stewart1B	.265	5	3	4	2	1	0	0
S. SteerLF	.273	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
N. LoweDH	.260	5	1	2	3	0	0	2
B. DunnRF	.357	5	2	2	0	0	0	0
W. BensonRF	.171	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
P.J. HigginsC	.286	4	0	2	2	0	0	1
K. Hayes3B	.142	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MyersCF	.243	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
Team		43	9	15	9	1	0	10

Player

AVG

RBI

.208

.290

.299

.265

.273

.260

.357

.171

.286

.142

.243

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. AbbottSP	5.1	3	2	1	3	3	96
B. BurkeRP	0.2	2	2	2	0	0	9
C. PhillipsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
G. AshcraftRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
S. MollRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	6	4	3	3	7	146

Player

5.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

146

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. TurnerSS	.239	2	1	1	0	0	2	0
A. GarciaRF	.207	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. Harper1B	.267	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.220	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.212	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MarshLF	.325	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
E. Sosa2B	.228	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
B. Stott2B	.229	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. KempLF	.080	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CrawfordCF	.255	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	4	6	4	2	3	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. NolaSP	5.0	8	4	4	0	5	77
T. MayzaRP	1.1	3	2	2	0	2	28
O. KerkeringRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	2	23
B. KellerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	17
Team	9.0	15	9	9	0	10	160

Team

CIN

PHI

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PHI vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

PHI vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.