MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2PHI

32-29

PHI

33-29

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 974 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

37,812 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

PHI no-vig %

63.0%

open 62.2% · +0.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
55.9%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.6%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.32 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.63

CLV pp

Open price

+153

Close price

+157

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.2%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.7pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

★ best

+148DraftKings

edge +6.7pp · implied 37.8%

PHI

no live price

Book	SD	PHI	Best edge
DraftKings	+148★	-196	+6.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHI vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
8.0± 3.2low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.2± 2.9low
Zack WheelerPHI
6.0± 2.5low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.4± 1.2high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.2± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.2± 1.8high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.8± 1.6high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Manny MachadoSD
0.7± 0.9high
Bryce HarperPHI
0.5± 0.7high
Edmundo SosaPHI
0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.7± 2.6low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 2.6low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.2± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

SD 4 · PHI 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	4
PHI	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
F. Tatis Jr.★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.3
G. Sheets★1B	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	2	1	19.5
SPRINT26.735
M. Machado★3B	1-4	4	1	1	2	1	0	2	13.4
SPRINT24.32
T. France★1B	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	2	1	2.9
SPRINT24.74
J. Merrill★CF	1-3	3	1	1	2	1	1	1	0.4
SPRINT28.688
X. Bogaerts★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	16.7
M. Andujar★DH	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.0
F. Fermin★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.0
B. Johnson★RF	2-3	3	0	2	0	0	0	1	0.1
SPRINT27.354
J. BowenCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.8
Team	4-30	30	4	4	4	2	5	10	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

F. Tatis Jr.★RF

0-4

5.3

G. Sheets★1B

0-2

19.5

M. Machado★3B

1-4

13.4

T. France★1B

0-2

2.9

J. Merrill★CF

1-3

0.4

X. Bogaerts★SS

0-4

16.7

M. Andujar★DH

0-4

6.0

F. Fermin★C

0-3

4.0

B. Johnson★RF

2-3

0.1

J. BowenCF

0-1

0.8

Team

4-30

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
L. Giolito★SP	4.0	6	3	2	1	5	1	18.1
Y. MatsuiRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.8
R. MarinaccioRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	1.7
A. MorejonRP	0.1	3	3	3	1	0	0	18.1
W. PeraltaRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	1.2
Team	8.0	10	6	5	3	10	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

L. Giolito★SP

4.0

18.1

Y. MatsuiRP

1.0

0.8

R. MarinaccioRP

1.0

1.7

A. MorejonRP

0.1

18.1

W. PeraltaRP

1.2

Team

8.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
K. Schwarber★DH	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	1	1	3.0
T. Turner★SS	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	0	1	5.2
SPRINT29.798
B. Harper★1B	1-3	3	2	1	0	0	1	1	18.2
SPRINT2744
B. Marsh★LF	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	2	19.3
A. Bohm★3B	2-4	4	0	2	1	0	0	2	6.7
SPRINT26.632
B. Stott★2B	2-4	4	0	2	1	0	0	0	12.9
SPRINT28.688
J.T. Realmuto★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	4.6
A. Garcia★RF	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	1	7.8
SPRINT26.735
J. Crawford★CF	1-3	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	8.9
Team	10-34	34	6	10	5	1	3	10	—

Batting

Analytics

Player