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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7STL
STL

STL

29-21

8
1
CIN

CIN

26-25

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
19,927 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

CIN no-vig %

51.7%

open 51.7%

+2.0+1.0CIN SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL55.7%47.7%CIN NO-VIG %MODEL 54.7%May 23, 12 AMMay 23, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 8 · CIN 1 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0021002128
CIN0100000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.2pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

STL

★ best
+175DraftKings

edge +11.2pp · implied 34.1%

CIN

no live price

BookSTLCINBest edge
DraftKings+175★-235+11.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.74

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-118

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, May 23·Final/Seriestied 1-1/VegasCIN -114

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals went into Cincinnati Reds and beat them, 8–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

STL -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total stayed UNDER 10.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Bryan Torres

Bryan Torres

OF

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Nathaniel Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe

DH

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL29-21
8
1
CIN26-25
STL29-21·CIN26-25
STL

STL

29-21

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
1-55111011
SPRINT27.560
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
2-33221020
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
2-44021010
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-55113101
SPRINT28.891
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-44000011
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-44210012
B. TorresB. Torres★OF
2-44122110
C. PrietoC. Prieto★3B
0-55000001
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
3-44130011
SPRINT29.798
Team12-38388128287
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. PallanteA. Pallante★SP
6.0211131
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.0000110
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
1.0000000
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
1.0000120
Team9.0211361
CIN

CIN

26-25

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
0-33000010
SPRINT27.457
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-44000000
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
0-44000003
SPRINT26.530
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-44111101
SPRINT25.411
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-22000010
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-22000010
B. DunnB. Dunn★RF
1-33010001
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-33000001
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
0-22000000
T. FriedlT. FriedlCF
0-11000000
Team2-2828121136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PaddackC. Paddack★SP
5.0733350
S. MollS. MollRP
1.0100000
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
1.0122211
J. FrancoJ. FrancoRP
2.0333311
Team9.01288872

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • A. Pallante
    93 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      28%·95.4 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      28%·88.1 mph·31% whiff
    • KC
      20%·78.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·95.9 mph·9% whiff
    • FS
      3%·87.7 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      53%·98.1 mph·57% whiff
    • FS
      16%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Svanson
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      43%·87.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      36%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soriano
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      25%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      25%·85.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      13%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.2 mph·0% whiff

CIN

  • C. Paddack
    84 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      33%·92.4 mph·6% whiff
    • CH
      25%·84.6 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      17%·77.4 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      15%·85.7 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      6%·79.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Franco
    54 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      44%·95.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      43%·86.6 mph·36% whiff
    • CH
      13%·88.7 mph·25% whiff
  • C. Phillips
    28 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      57%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      39%·98.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·89.0 mph·— whiff
  • S. Moll
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • SI
      60%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      40%·82.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

2

8

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 1-1

May 22STLSTL0@CINCIN0
May 23STLSTL8@CINCIN1today
May 23STLSTL6@CINCIN7
May 24STLSTL0@CINCIN0

Season series

STL leads series 1-0

May 22STLSTL0@CINCIN0
May 23STLSTL8@CINCIN1today
May 23STLSTL6@CINCIN7
May 24STLSTL0@CINCIN0
Jun 6CINCIN@STLSTLupcoming
Jun 6CINCIN@STLSTLupcoming
Jun 7CINCIN@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 25CINCIN@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 25CINCIN@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 26CINCIN@STLSTLupcoming
Aug 17STLSTL@CINCINupcoming
Aug 17STLSTL@CINCINupcoming
Aug 18STLSTL@CINCINupcoming
Aug 19STLSTL@CINCINupcoming
Aug 20STLSTL@CINCINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL-10551%
CINCIN-11453%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

10.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 3rd Inning

STLSTL
B. Torres

B. Torres

OF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

A. Pallante

A. Pallante

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

CINCIN
N. Lowe

N. Lowe

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

C. Paddack

C. Paddack

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

How it ended

STL beat CIN 8-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CIN vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 64% WP

Lowe · homered to right (398 feet).

STLTop 3rd Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 59% WP

Burleson · singled to center, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.

STLTop 7th Inning · 5-1
+12pp→ 94% WP

Walker · homered to right center (389 feet), Herrera scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0021002128
CIN0100000001

Period scoring

STL won 5 · CIN won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Lowe 1

2
0

Inn 3

Burleson 1

1
0

Inn 4

Wetherholt 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Walker 2

1
0

Inn 8

Herrera 1

2
0

Inn 9

Torres 2

STL
CIN

Play-by-play · 591 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    STL 8·CIN 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  3. B9

    Lowe struck out swinging.

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  9. B9

    Matt Svanson pitches to Nathaniel Lowe

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  10. B9

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  11. B9

    Stewart struck out swinging.

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  16. B9

    Matt Svanson pitches to Sal Stewart

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  17. B9

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  18. B9

    De La Cruz flied out to center.

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  20. B9

    Matt Svanson pitches to Elly De La Cruz

    · ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  21. B9

    ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  22. B9

    Bleday walked.

    ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  28. B9

    Matt Svanson pitches to JJ Bleday

    ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  29. B9

    Svanson relieved Soriano

    ·

    STL 8·CIN 1

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    STL 8·CIN 1

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

8

Runs

1

12

Hits

2

0

Errors

1

20

TB

5

2

HR

1

8

BB

3

7

K

6

21

LOB

6

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 10·STL -105/CIN -114

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CIN vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    4.7± 3.0low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.9%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    55.4%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.2%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.7%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.89 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 25, 26sim 97
    236
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 96
    21
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 96
    246
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 96
    296
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 95
    174
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 95
    118
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs