Pitcher
—
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
TEX
1LiveMid 5th
STL
3Updated 9:18 PM ET
Live read
Burleson doubled to right, Velázquez scored and Walker scored. → win prob 71→81% STL
MID 5TH+2STL
TEX
30-31
13
STL
31-28
MLB · At bat
Mid 50-00 outs
Batter
—
LastMiddle of the 5th inning
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2BSPRINT28.891
Jordan WalkerSTL · RFSPRINT28.891
Brandon NimmoTEX · RFSPRINT28.278
Evan CarterTEX · CFSPRINT28.175
Alejandro OsunaTEX · LFSPRINT2872
Live · model leanMid 5thPolls every 30s
62.4%
STL wins · current
Pre-game: 52.4% STL
TEX 1 · 3 STL
STL +2
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Inn 5away leadsSTL leads
Key moments · live
newest firstBusch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 8.15
M. Gore
4-4 · 3.96 ERA
vs
A. Pallante
5-4 · 4.19 ERA
Line movement
200 snapshots
STL spread
+1.5
open PK · +1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
STL no-vig %
51.0%
open 50.4% · +0.5
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Ensemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
52.3%
ensemble · STL favored
Elo Static
53.3%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.4%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.17 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
Player projections
STL vs TEX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 83 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob deGromTEX6.5± 3.7low
- Nathan EovaldiTEX6.2± 2.5low
- Jack LeiterTEX5.9± 3.3low
Hits
- Josh JungTEX1.2± 0.9high
- JJ WetherholtSTL1.1± 0.9high
- Ezequiel DuranTEX1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Joc PedersonTEX2.1± 3.0high
- Josh JungTEX1.9± 2.0high
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.8± 2.3high
RBIs
- Jordan WalkerSTL0.8± 1.4high
- Nelson VelazquezSTL0.8± 2.0low
- Ezequiel DuranTEX0.7± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Jack LeiterTEX2.8± 2.6low
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL2.7± 2.3low
- Andre PallanteSTL2.6± 2.5low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
The One modelTossup
● Live
1TEX
Rangers
33-34
vs52.4%STL
STL★
Cardinals
33-28
3TEX 47.6%win prob52.4% STL
STL 1500 · TEX 1501Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
