MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Triolo singled to right, Cruz scored, Ozuna to second. → win prob 73→83% PIT

TOP 7TH+2PIT

PIT

33-28

HOU

27-35

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 986 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Top 72-20 outs

Pitcher· HOU

N. Pearson

0.0 IP, 0 ER

Batter· PIT

B. Reynolds

0-3, 1 K

LastPitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

Live · model leanTop 7thPolls every 30s

60.4%

PIT wins · current

Pre-game: 52.6% HOU

PIT 5 · 3 HOU

PIT +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsHOU leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingPITTop 6th Inning · 5-3
+10pp→ 83% WP
Triolo · singled to right, Cruz scored, Ozuna to second.
ClutchHOUBottom 5th Inning · 4-3
+12pp→ 36% WP
Smith · singled to right, Peña scored, Alvarez to third.
Lead flipPITTop 4th Inning · 4-2
+44pp→ 77% WP
Davis · homered to left (396 feet), Ozuna scored, Garcia scored and Triolo scored.
SwingHOUBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+16pp→ 69% WP
Alvarez · singled to right, Allen scored, Peña to third.
Lead flipHOUBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 53% WP
Peña doubled to shortstop.

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 4.23

P. Skenes

6-5 · 2.89 ERA

S. Arrighetti

7-1 · 1.34 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

HOU no-vig %

41.7%

open 41.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
53.5%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.3%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.9%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.2%

-52.3ppvs pre-game · PIT favored

Leverage

±2.5

pp · next play

low · 4/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.0pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

PIT

no live price

HOU

★ best

+119DraftKings

edge +9.0pp · implied 43.6%

Book	PIT	HOU	Best edge
DraftKings	-144	+119★	+9.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

HOU vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.9± 2.8low
Paul SkenesPIT
6.6± 3.3low
Peter LambertHOU
5.4± 2.7low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 0.9high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.2± 1.0high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.7± 3.4high
Christian WalkerHOU
2.2± 2.9high
Oneil CruzPIT
2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

Christian WalkerHOU
1.1± 1.5high
Oneil CruzPIT
1.0± 1.2high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.9± 1.5high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.8low
Mitch KellerPIT
3.0± 3.1low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

PIT

Pirates

33-31

vs52.6%HOU

HOU★

Astros

32-40

PIT 47.4%win prob52.6% HOU

HOU 1493 · PIT 1493Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
S. Horwitz★1B	3-4	4	0	3	0	0	0	0	5.3
SPRINT24.85
B. Lowe★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	13.1
B. Reynolds★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.1
N. Gonzales★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.7
O. Cruz★CF	2-2	2	1	2	0	0	1	0	23.8
SPRINT28.483
M. Ozuna★DH	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	54.9
SPRINT25.614
J. Garcia★RF	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	36.8
J. Triolo★3B	1-2	2	1	1	1	0	1	0	51.9
SPRINT28.483
H. Davis★C	1-3	3	1	1	4	1	0	2	40.7
SPRINT27.765
Team	8-25	25	5	8	5	1	3	5	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

S. Horwitz★1B

3-4

5.3

B. Lowe★2B

0-4

13.1

B. Reynolds★LF

0-3

4.1

N. Gonzales★3B

0-3

2.7

O. Cruz★CF

2-2

23.8

M. Ozuna★DH

1-2

54.9

J. Garcia★RF

0-2

36.8

J. Triolo★3B

1-2

51.9

H. Davis★C

1-3

40.7

Team

8-25

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
P. Skenes★SP	4.2	7	3	3	1	7	0	38.7
Y. RamirezRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	2.8
Team	6.0	7	3	3	1	9	0	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

P. Skenes★SP

4.2

38.7

Y. RamirezRP

1.1

2.8

Team

6.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. Pena★SS	2-2	2	2	2	0	0	1	0	36.7
SPRINT28.483
Y. Alvarez★DH	2-3	3	0	2	1	0	0	0	22.4
SPRINT24.64
C. Walker★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	17.5
I. Paredes★3B	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	1	4.8
SPRINT25.18
C. Smith★RF	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	1	10.3
SPRINT29.395
J. Meyers★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.4
Z. Dezenzo★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.2
N. Allen★SS	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	18.0
SPRINT2744
C. Vazquez★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.8
T. TrammellCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.1
Team	7-26	26	3	7	3	0	1	9	—

Batting

Analytics

Player