MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Rice doubled to right. → win prob 30→41% NYY

BOT 7TH+1CLE

CLE

35-27

NYY

36-24

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 981 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Bottom 72-22 outs

Pitcher· CLE

C. Holderman

0.2 IP, 1 K, 0 ER

Batter· NYY

A. Wells

0-2, 1 K

LastPitch 4 : Ball 2

Live · model leanBot 7thPolls every 30s

51.2%

CLE wins · current

Pre-game: 61.9% NYY

CLE 4 · 3 NYY

CLE +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7

away leadsNYY leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCLETop 6th Inning · 4-2
+14pp→ 75% WP
Ram · írez homered to right (363 feet).
ClutchNYYBottom 4th Inning · 3-2
+13pp→ 41% WP
Umpire · reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: José Caballero homers (364 feet) on a fly ball to left field.
Lead flipCLETop 4th Inning · 3-1
+23pp→ 67% WP
Hoskins · homered to left (382 feet), Ramírez scored.
Lead flipNYYBottom 2nd Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 58% WP
Chisholm Jr. · homered to right (409 feet).
Lead flipCLETop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 58% WP
Manzardo · homered to right (370 feet).

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 3.07

G. Williams

8-3 · 3.07 ERA

G. Cole

1-0 · 0.00 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.0 · +0.5

NYY no-vig %

60.3%

open 60.0% · +0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.0%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
60.9%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.5%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.3%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

15.1%

-45.8ppvs pre-game · CLE favored

Leverage

±7.1

pp · next play

medium · 46/100

1-point game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

CLE

no live price

NYY

no live price

Book	CLE	NYY	Best edge
DraftKings	+138	-182	+1.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

NYY vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.2± 3.6low
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.8± 3.3low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.3± 2.5low

Hits

Ben RiceNYY
1.3± 1.3high
Brayan RocchioCLE
1.1± 1.1high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Ben RiceNYY
2.5± 2.9high
Travis BazzanaCLE
2.0± 1.9high
Cody BellingerNYY
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Ben RiceNYY
1.0± 1.4high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.8± 1.4high
Aaron JudgeNYY
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
3.0± 2.5low
Tanner BibeeCLE
2.9± 3.6low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.3± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

CLE

Guardians

39-32

vs61.9%NYY

NYY★

Yankees

42-25

CLE 38.1%win prob61.9% NYY

NYY 1582 · CLE 1529Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
T. Bazzana★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.0
SPRINT27.662
J. Ramirez★3B	2-3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	32.4
SPRINT27.251
C. DeLauter★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	8.3
K. Manzardo★1B	2-3	3	1	2	1	1	0	0	4.5
SPRINT25.411
R. Hoskins★1B	1-2	2	1	1	2	1	1	0	14.6
SPRINT24.96
A. Martinez★LF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	6.4
SPRINT27.765
S. Kwan★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.6
P. Bailey★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	4.8
B. Rocchio★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.5
Team	6-27	27	4	6	4	3	1	5	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

T. Bazzana★2B

0-4

3.0

J. Ramirez★3B

2-3

32.4

C. DeLauter★RF

0-3

8.3

K. Manzardo★1B

2-3

4.5

R. Hoskins★1B

1-2

14.6

A. Martinez★LF

1-3

6.4

S. Kwan★CF

0-3

7.6

P. Bailey★C

0-3

4.8

B. Rocchio★SS

0-3

4.5

Team

6-27

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
G. Williams★SP	5.1	4	3	3	1	6	2	5.6
T. HerrinRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.7
C. HoldermanRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	9.4
Team	6.2	4	3	3	1	8	2	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

G. Williams★SP

5.1

5.6

T. HerrinRP

0.2

0.7

C. HoldermanRP

0.2

9.4

Team

6.2

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
T. Grisham★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	9.0
SPRINT26.735
B. Rice★1B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	2	2.9
SPRINT26.941
P. Goldschmidt★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	8.2
C. Bellinger★LF	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	4.6
SPRINT27.560
J. Chisholm Jr.★2B	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	1	7.4
SPRINT28.175
J. Caballero★SS	2-3	3	1	2	1	1	0	1	8.9
SPRINT28.278
R. McMahon★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	10.4
A. Wells★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.3
A. Volpe★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.9
Team	4-23	23	3	4	3	2	1	8	—

Batting

Analytics

Player