Starter edge
4.76 ERA
Matthew Liberatore vs Jordan Wicks - 16.62 ERA
Liberatore owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving STL cleaner opening script tonight.
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Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals
CHC
CHC
32-27
PregameSun, 7:20 PM EDT
STL
STL
30-26
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 21.38
J. Wicks
0-1 · 16.62 ERA
vs
M. Liberatore
2-3 · 4.76 ERA
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketBusch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Line movement
200 snapshots
STL spread
+1.5
open PK · +1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 9.0 · -0.5
STL no-vig %
49.0%
open 48.9% · +0.1
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Jordan Wicks
RP · #36
0-1
W-L
16.62
ERA
2.31
WHIP
5
K
4.1
IP
Last 1 starts
@PITL(0-1)4.1 IP8 ER5 K
Home starter
Matthew Liberatore
SP · #32
2-3
W-L
4.76
ERA
1.57
WHIP
53
K
56.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@MILL(2-3)5.0 IP3 ER10 K
vsPIT-4.2 IP4 ER9 K
@ATHL(2-2)5.0 IP4 ER5 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money+104 / -125
Model edge
Win prob47% / 53%
LeanHome · 3pp
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Pick a side.
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21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
CHC
- 1.N. Hoerner2B
- 2.P. Crow-ArmstrongCF
- 3.A. Bregman3B
- 4.S. SuzukiRF
- 5.I. HappLF
- 6.C. KellyC
- 7.M. Busch1B
- 8.K. AlcantaraDH
- 9.D. SwansonSS
STL
- 1.J. Wetherholt2B
- 2.I. HerreraDH
- 3.J. WalkerRF
- 4.N. VelazquezLF
- 5.A. Burleson1B
- 6.M. WinnSS
- 7.J. FerminCF
- 8.T. Saggese3B
- 9.P. PagesC
Scouting report · pre-game
STL vs CHC.
STL is 4-6 recently; CHC is 3-7.
53.1%
model · STL win prob
Recent form
- STL4–6-1.3
- CHC3–7-1.0
Situational
- STL1d restB2B
- CHC1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. STL has 0 straight road games; CHC has 6.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Ian HappCHC2.2total bases · ±2.5
Ian Happ · 2.2 TB · last-10 2.4 vs season 1.8.
- Ivan HerreraSTL1.8total bases · ±2.0
Ivan Herrera · 1.8 TB · last-10 2 vs season 1.6.
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.8total bases · ±2.3
Jordan Walker · 1.8 TB · last-10 1.6 vs season 2.1.
Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2
STL is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-05-29CHC @ STL5–6
- 2026-05-30CHC @ STL6–1
Line move
open -105→-105flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
54.8%
ensemble · STL favored
Elo Static
53.8%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.3%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.3%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
2.24 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
85% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
STL vs CHC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 81 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.8± 4.7low
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL5.0± 3.7low
- Jameson TaillonCHC4.7± 2.8low
Hits
- Alex BregmanCHC1.2± 0.5high
- Alec BurlesonSTL1.1± 0.9high
- JJ WetherholtSTL1.1± 0.9high
Total bases
- Ian HappCHC2.2± 2.5high
- Bryan TorresSTL1.8± 2.6low
- Ivan HerreraSTL1.8± 2.0high
RBIs
- Ian HappCHC0.9± 1.7high
- Jordan WalkerSTL0.8± 1.5high
- Michael BuschCHC0.7± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Jameson TaillonCHC3.5± 2.9low
- Shota ImanagaCHC2.9± 4.0low
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL2.8± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
The One modelTossup
Sun, May 31CHC
Cubs
33-34
vs53.1%STL
STL★
Cardinals
32-26
CHC 46.9%win prob53.1% STL
STL 1505 · CHC 1503Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
