MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CHC

CHC

32-27

STL

30-26

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

40,147 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

STL no-vig %

44.9%

open 46.8% · -1.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
53.7%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.4%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.1%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.96 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.10

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+104

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.1pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

CHC

no live price

STL

★ best

+109DraftKings

edge +7.1pp · implied 45.8%

Book	CHC	STL	Best edge
DraftKings	-131	+109★	+7.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

STL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shota ImanagaCHC
5.3± 3.7low
Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 3.4low
Edward CabreraCHC
4.9± 2.7low

Hits

Jordan WalkerSTL
1.4± 1.0high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.3± 1.1high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.3± 0.5high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.6± 1.8high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.5± 2.9high
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.4± 1.9high

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
1.0± 1.1high
Jordan WalkerSTL
0.9± 1.1high
Lars NootbaarSTL
0.8± 1.0low

Earned runs

Edward CabreraCHC
3.2± 2.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.2± 4.0low
Colin ReaCHC
3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

STL

.722

OPS

.715

.716

.332

OBP

◀

.319

.322

4.59

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.49

4.31

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.01

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.33

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 6 · STL 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	2	6
STL	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.237	5	2	4	2	1	0	1
N. Hoerner2B	.252	6	0	2	1	0	0	0
M. Busch1B	.238	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
A. Bregman3B	.260	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
I. HappLF	.234	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
S. SuzukiRF	.250	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. BallesterosDH	.231	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. AmayaC	.217	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
D. SwansonSS	.185	3	1	0	0	0	2	2
Team		40	6	12	5	1	3	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.237

.252

.238

.260

.234

.250

.231

.217

.185

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. BrownRP	7.0	3	1	1	1	6	82
J. WebbRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	19
D. PalenciaRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	13
Team	9.0	5	1	1	2	7	114

Player

B. BrownRP

7.0

J. WebbRP

1.0

D. PalenciaRP

1.0

Team

9.0

114

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Wetherholt2B	.244	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
I. HerreraDH	.260	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Burleson1B	.280	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. WalkerRF	.290	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Gorman3B	.211	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. WinnSS	.234	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. CrooksC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. TorresLF	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Scott IICF	.187	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		29	1	5	1	0	2	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
K. LeahySP	4.1	6	1	1	0	4	78
R. FernandezRP	1.0	0	2	0	2	1	31
J. BruihlRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	6
G. GraceffoRP	1.2	2	1	1	0	2	20
M. PushardRP	1.2	3	2	1	1	0	28
Team	9.0	12	6	3	3	7	163

Team

CHC

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

STL vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

STL vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.