MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Torres grounded out to third. → win prob 83→91% TEX

END 9TH+1TEX

TEX

28-31

STL

31-26

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 977 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

End 90-00 outs

Pitcher

—

Batter

—

LastEnd of the 9th inning

Live · model leanEnd 9thPolls every 30s

53.5%

TEX wins · current

Pre-game: 56.0% STL

TEX 2 · 1 STL

TEX +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 9

away leadsSTL leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingTEXBottom 9th Inning · 2-1
+8pp→ 91% WP
Torres · grounded out to third.
SwingSTLBottom 6th Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 31% WP
Winn · homered to left (384 feet).
SwingTEXTop 5th Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 81% WP
Pederson · singled to center, Jansen scored, Lopez to third.
Lead flipTEXTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+16pp→ 61% WP
Duran · doubled to left, Nimmo scored.

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.75

J. deGrom

3-4 · 3.77 ERA

M. McGreevy

3-4 · 2.98 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

STL no-vig %

47.3%

open 47.4%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.1%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
56.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.9%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.3%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.7%

-54.3ppvs pre-game · TEX favored

Leverage

±3.0

pp · next play

low · 9/100

1-point game · 9th or later · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.52

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

46.9%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.0pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

TEX

no live price

STL

★ best

+108DraftKings

edge +10.0pp · implied 46.0%

Book	TEX	STL	Best edge
DraftKings	-130	+108★	+10.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

STL vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.3± 3.6low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.0± 2.5low
Jack LeiterTEX
5.9± 3.3low

Hits

Josh JungTEX
1.4± 1.0high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.1± 0.9high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Josh JungTEX
2.1± 1.9high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.9± 2.9high
Bryan TorresSTL
1.8± 2.6low

RBIs

Jordan WalkerSTL
0.8± 1.4high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.7± 0.9high
Joc PedersonTEX
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jack LeiterTEX
2.8± 2.6low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.7± 2.3low
Andre PallanteSTL
2.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

TEX

Rangers

31-34

vs56.0%STL

STL★

Cardinals

33-26

TEX 44.0%win prob56.0% STL

STL 1510 · TEX 1492Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. Pederson★DH	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.1
SPRINT25.716
J. Jung★3B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	11.1
B. Nimmo★RF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	10.1
SPRINT28.278
J. Burger★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.4
E. Duran★2B	3-4	4	0	3	1	0	0	0	11.8
SPRINT28.891
A. Osuna★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	10.2
SPRINT2872
E. Carter★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.0
D. Jansen★C	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	18.6
N. Lopez★2B	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	1	14.7
Team	8-33	33	2	8	2	0	2	5	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

J. Pederson★DH

1-3

0.1

J. Jung★3B

0-4

11.1

B. Nimmo★RF

1-3

10.1

J. Burger★1B

0-4

6.4

E. Duran★2B

3-4

11.8

A. Osuna★LF

1-4

10.2

E. Carter★CF

0-4

4.0

D. Jansen★C

0-3

18.6

N. Lopez★2B

2-4

14.7

Team

8-33

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
J. deGrom★SP	5.0	4	0	0	1	8	0	0.7
P. GrayRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	6.7
T. AlexanderRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	8.8
J. JunisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	9.4
J. LatzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	17.5
Team	9.0	5	1	1	1	14	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

J. deGrom★SP

5.0

0.7

P. GrayRP

1.0

6.7

T. AlexanderRP

1.0

8.8

J. JunisRP

1.0

9.4

J. LatzRP

1.0

17.5

Team

9.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. Wetherholt★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.3
I. Herrera★DH	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.7
A. Burleson★1B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	13.3
SPRINT25.513
J. Walker★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	4	11.8
B. Torres★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	10.2
M. Winn★SS	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	2	0.7
SPRINT2872
N. Gorman★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	3	8.0
J. Crooks★C	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	1.3
V. Scott II★CF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	4.1
SPRINT29.798
N. VelazquezOF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.5
J. FerminLF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.6
Team	5-33	33	1	5	1	1	1	14	—

Batting

Analytics

Player