Pitcher· MIL
C. Patrick
1.2 IP, 2 K, 0 ER
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
SF
1LiveTop 7th
MIL
0Updated 9:18 PM ET
Live read
Susac singled to right. → win prob 52→64% SF
TOP 7TH+1SF
SF
23-38
10
MIL
37-21
MLB · At bat
Top 72-32 outs
Batter· SF
C. Schmitt
1-4, 1 K
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 13 players in cohort
Garrett MitchellMIL · CFSPRINT29.798
Sal FrelickMIL · RFSPRINT28.790
Brice TurangMIL · 2BSPRINT28.586
Matt ChapmanSF · 3BSPRINT28.175
Casey SchmittSF · DHSPRINT2872
Live · model leanTop 7thPolls every 30s
52.6%
MIL wins · current
Pre-game: 71.2% MIL
SF 1 · 0 MIL
SF +1
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Inn 7away leadsMIL leads
Key moments · live
newest firstAmerican Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 11.30
L. Webb
2-4 · 4.82 ERA
vs
R. Gasser
0-1 · 6.48 ERA
Line movement
200 snapshots
MIL spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
MIL no-vig %
58.3%
open 59.3% · -1.0
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Ensemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
70.2%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
68.6%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.6%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
68.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.83 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
Player projections
MIL vs SF.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
121
projections · 82 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL9.0± 2.6low
- Kyle HarrisonMIL6.6± 5.5low
- Landen RouppSF5.9± 2.2low
Hits
- Jung Hoo LeeSF1.5± 1.5high
- Andrew VaughnMIL1.3± 1.1high
- William ContrerasMIL1.2± 1.1high
Total bases
- Willy AdamesSF2.4± 2.6high
- Casey SchmittSF2.3± 2.2high
- Jung Hoo LeeSF2.1± 2.0high
RBIs
- William ContrerasMIL0.8± 1.1high
- Casey SchmittSF0.8± 1.3high
- Rafael DeversSF0.8± 1.6high
Earned runs
- Adrian HouserSF3.3± 2.7low
- Logan WebbSF3.1± 2.6low
- Brandon SproatMIL2.9± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
The One model★ Lock
● Live
1SF
Giants
29-37
vs71.2%MIL
MIL★
Brewers
42-22
0SF 28.8%win prob71.2% MIL
MIL 1589 · SF 1477Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
