MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Alonso singled to right. → win prob 13→19% BAL

TOP 8TH+7BOS

BAL

29-32

BOS

25-34

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 981 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Top 80-01 out

Pitcher· BOS

R. Watson

1.1 IP, 2 K, 1 ER

Batter· BAL

T. O'Neill

0-2, 1 K

LastRyan Watson pitches to Tyler O'Neill

Live · model leanTop 8thPolls every 30s

78.3%

BOS wins · current

Pre-game: 54.4% BOS

BAL 1 · 8 BOS

BOS +7

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 8

away leadsBOS leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingBALTop 4th Inning · 0-3
+6pp→ 19% WP
Alonso · singled to right.
SwingBOSBottom 3rd Inning · 0-3
+15pp→ 85% WP
Abreu · homered to right (398 feet), Durbin scored.
SwingBOSBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 74% WP
Durbin · singled to center.
SwingBOSBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 69% WP
Abreu · singled to left, Duran scored.
Lead flipBOSTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 59% WP
Alonso · struck out swinging.

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.67

C. Bassitt

4-3 · 5.06 ERA

P. Tolle

2-2 · 2.61 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

BOS no-vig %

57.2%

open 58.3% · -1.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
54.8%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.8%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.6%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

99.0%

+44.2ppvs pre-game · BOS favored

Leverage

±2.4

pp · next play

low · 4/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.09

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+123

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

BOS vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Payton TolleBOS
6.6± 4.0low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.5± 3.1low
Shane BazBAL
5.3± 2.1low

Hits

Jarren DuranBOS
1.2± 1.1high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.1± 0.9high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Jarren DuranBOS
2.4± 2.4high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.8± 2.6high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Jarren DuranBOS
0.8± 0.9high
Blaze AlexanderBAL
0.7± 1.9high
Colton CowserBAL
0.7± 1.5high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.8low
Brayan BelloBOS
3.1± 3.8low
Shane BazBAL
2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

BAL

Orioles

31-38

vs54.4%BOS

BOS★

Red Sox

25-40

BAL 45.6%win prob54.4% BOS

BOS 1484 · BAL 1474Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
T. Ward★LF	3-3	3	1	3	0	0	1	0	2.8
SPRINT27.457
G. Henderson★SS	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	16.1
SPRINT28.175
A. Rutschman★C	2-4	4	0	2	1	0	0	0	2.1
SPRINT26.632
P. Alonso★1B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	9.0
SPRINT25.29
C. Mayo★3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2	3.1
SPRINT2872
S. Basallo★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	4.2
T. O'Neill★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.0
J. Holliday★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.5
B. Alexander★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.4
C. CowserRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.1
Team	9-30	30	1	9	1	0	3	7	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

T. Ward★LF

3-3

2.8

G. Henderson★SS

1-4

16.1

A. Rutschman★C

2-4

2.1

P. Alonso★1B

1-4

9.0

C. Mayo★3B

1-4

3.1

S. Basallo★C

0-3

4.2

T. O'Neill★RF

0-2

1.0

J. Holliday★2B

1-3

0.5

B. Alexander★3B

0-2

4.4

C. CowserRF

0-1

0.1

Team

9-30

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
C. Bassitt★SP	3.0	6	3	3	2	1	1	26.5
A. SuarezRP	2.0	7	5	5	1	2	0	10.8
A. NunezRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.2
Team	7.0	15	8	8	3	5	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

C. Bassitt★SP

3.0

26.5

A. SuarezRP

2.0

10.8

A. NunezRP

2.0

0.2

Team

7.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. Duran★LF	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	0	2	6.7
C. Rafaela★CF	3-5	5	0	3	1	0	0	0	2.3
SPRINT28.790
W. Abreu★RF	2-5	5	1	2	3	1	0	1	21.1
SPRINT2872
W. Contreras★1B	3-3	3	1	3	0	0	1	0	7.7
SPRINT26.838
M. Yoshida★DH	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	6.9
M. Gasper★C	1-3	3	1	1	2	0	1	1	4.4
I. Kiner-Falefa★2B	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	0	1	0.2
M. Mayer★2B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	1.2
C. Durbin★3B	2-4	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	19.8
SPRINT28.175
Team	15-35	35	8	15	8	1	3	5	—

Batting

Analytics

Player