Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at SA?

The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10NY

53-29

10595

62-20

NBAWed, Jun 3FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSA -4.5

NY · top performer

Karl-Anthony Towns

C · #32

15.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

15.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 1:50

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	31	17	5-12	3-6	4-4	-6	3	0
K. TownsC · #32	34	18	7-15	0-2	4-4	+14	12	4
J. HartG · #3	27	3	1-5	0-3	1-1	+22	15	6
M. BridgesG · #25	28	9	3-6	—	3-4	+11	3	3
J. BrunsonG · #11	37	30	12-31	2-9	4-4	+6	3	2
Bench
M. RobinsonC · #23	13	2	1-2	—	0-1	-4	6	0
J. ClarksonG · #00	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	1	0
L. ShametG · #44	33	13	5-9	3-6	—	-10	1	0
J. AlvaradoG · #5	11	7	3-6	1-3	—	+4	4	1
M. McBrideG · #2	19	6	2-7	2-6	—	+11	1	4
Team		105	39-94	11-36	16-18		49	20
DNP: J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, M. Diawara, A. Hukporti, T. Kolek

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	31	16	5-11	5-10	1-2	-8	10	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	38	26	6-21	2-9	12-13	-3	12	2
D. FoxG · #4	38	7	3-13	0-4	1-2	0	4	5
D. VassellG · #24	36	9	4-11	1-6	—	-13	9	3
S. CastleG · #5	34	17	7-16	1-5	2-2	-9	8	3
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	12	0	0-2	0-2	0-1	-2	2	1
K. JohnsonF · #3	8	3	1-4	1-2	—	+1	0	0
C. BryantF · #11	4	1	0-1	0-1	1-2	-4	0	0
L. KornetC · #7	10	0	—	—	—	-7	1	0
D. HarperG · #2	28	16	6-10	1-4	3-3	-5	8	1
Team		95	32-89	11-43	20-25		54	16
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

39-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-89

FG %

11-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-43

16-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-25

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

NY leads series 1-0

Jun 4

NY105@

SA95today

Jun 6

NY105@

SA104

Jun 9

SA115@

NY111

Jun 11

SA106@

NY107

Jun 14

NY94@

SA90

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

217.5

Defensive · -8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY+15040%

SA-18064%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -4.5↗SpreadBet SA -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

-1.0 since open

Total

217.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat SA 105-95. K. Towns led with 18 PTS, 12 REB, 4 AST. NY outscored the other side 29-19 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 36 REB · 15 AST

GS 61

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST

GS 19

SAstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 43 REB · 14 AST

GS 49

Bench(5)

20 PTS · 11 REB · 2 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA4th Quarter · 3:24 · 94-92

+14pp→ 49% WP

Karl-Anthony Towns · shooting foul

NY4th Quarter · 1:50 · 97-95

+15pp→ 59% WP

Jalen Brunson · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)

NY4th Quarter · 1:11 · 97-95

+14pp→ 84% WP

De'Aaron Fox · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	19	29	28	29	105
SA	27	28	21	19	95

Period scoring

NY won 3 · SA won 1

Anunoby 5

Harper 10

Brunson 8

Champagnie 9

Towns 10

Wembanyama 6

Brunson 13

Wembanyama 11

Shooting comparison

41%

39-94

36%

32-89

31%

11-36

3PT

26%

11-43

89%

16-18

80%

20-25

Play-by-play · 508 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 105·SA 95
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 105·SA 95
Q4·9.6
Josh Hart defensive rebound
NY 105·SA 95
Q4·13.0
Julian Champagnie misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 105·SA 95
Q4·20.6
OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 105·SA 95
Q4·20.6
Landry Shamet enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 104·SA 95
Q4·20.6
OG Anunoby makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 104·SA 95
Q4·20.6
Stephon Castle personal take foul
NY 103·SA 95
Q4·21.1
Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Landry Shamet
·
NY 103·SA 95
Q4·21.1
Knicks Full timeout
NY 103·SA 95
Q4·21.1
De'Aaron Fox out of bounds bad pass turnover
NY 103·SA 95
Q4·21.1
(00:21.1) [Knicks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Knicks] retain their timeout
NY 103·SA 95
−0.6pp
Q4·21.1
Spurs Full timeout
NY 103·SA 95
Q4·29.4
OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 103·SA 95
+0.8pp
Q4·29.4
Landry Shamet enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 102·SA 95
Q4·29.4
OG Anunoby makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 102·SA 95
Q4·29.4
De'Aaron Fox loose ball foul
NY 101·SA 95
−2pp
Q4·29.4
Knicks defensive team rebound
NY 101·SA 95
−0.9pp
Q4·32.1
Victor Wembanyama misses 27-foot three point jumper
NY 101·SA 95
−3pp
Q4·37.8
Jalen Brunson makes 14-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 101·SA 95
−6pp
Q4·57.3
Victor Wembanyama lost ball turnover (Josh Hart steals)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 99·SA 95
−8pp
Q4·1:11
Mikal Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 99·SA 95
+6pp
Q4·1:11
Mikal Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 98·SA 95
−2pp
Q4·1:11
De'Aaron Fox shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NY 97·SA 95
−14pp
Q4·1:28
Josh Hart defensive rebound
NY 97·SA 95
−3pp
Q4·1:31
De'Aaron Fox misses 9-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 97·SA 95
−8pp
Q4·1:50
Jalen Brunson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 97·SA 95
−16pp
Q4·1:52
Mikal Bridges offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 94·SA 95
−8pp
Q4·1:57
OG Anunoby misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
NY 94·SA 95
+7pp
Q4·2:16
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 94·SA 95
−8pp

Betting line

SA -4.5·O/U 217.5·NY +150/SA -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks went into San Antonio Spurs and beat them, 105–95.

NY +4.5 cashed (SA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 217.5 by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.496

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

24.3%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
26.2%
P(SA win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
24.1%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
22.5%
P(SA win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

1.52 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.23

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+170

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at SA?: The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

no live price

Book	NY	SA	Best edge
DraftKings	-395	+280	+1.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SA vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

145

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
OG AnunobyNY
18.6± 7.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high

Assists

Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high
Karl-Anthony TownsNY
0.9± 0.7high
Julian ChampagnieSA
0.6± 0.7high

Steals

Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.3%

48.0%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

116.4

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

27.3

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR