NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Miles McBride makes 24-foot jump bank shot (Josh Hart assists) → win prob 34→44% NY

END OF 3RDTied

53-29

7676

62-20

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 50 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.197
Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.694
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.491
Karl-Anthony TownsNY · C
CONT7.685
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.885

NBAWed, Jun 3End of 3rdSeriestied 1-1VegasSA -4.5

Updated 0s ago

NY · top performer

Karl-Anthony Towns

C · #32

15.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Julian Champagnie

F · #30

14.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box score

End of 3rdTied

NY53-29

SA62-20

NY53-29SA62-20

53-29

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Core		Rebounds	Playmaking	Defense		Discipline
Player
O. Anunoby★F · #8	22	5	2	0	1	1	0	-11
K. TownsDouble-double★C · #32	26	18	10	4	0	1	2	+9
CONT7.685 DRIVES6.147 TOUCHES50.830
J. Hart★G · #3	19	3	9	6	1	1	0	+12
DEFL4.197 TOUCHES56.942 CONT4.633
M. Bridges★G · #25	23	7	2	2	2	0	1	-5
J. Brunson★G · #11	29	17	3	2	0	0	4	-4
TOUCHES89.694 DRIVES1688 DEFL1.618
M. RobinsonC · #23	10	2	6	0	0	0	0	-9
L. ShametG · #44	24	11	1	0	0	0	0	-5
M. McBrideG · #2	14	6	1	2	0	1	0	+7

Team		76	39	17	5	4	8
DNP: J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, M. Diawara, A. Hukporti, T. Kolek

62-20

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Core		Rebounds	Playmaking	Defense		Discipline
Player
J. Champagnie★F · #30	24	15	8	1	0	1	0	+2
V. Wembanyama★F · #1	27	15	5	1	1	3	4	+3
D. Fox★G · #4	27	7	2	5	1	0	1	+4
D. Vassell★G · #24	26	7	7	2	0	0	1	+1
DEFL2.552 CONT4.130 DRIVES3.818
S. Castle★G · #5	23	12	7	3	0	0	2	-1
TOUCHES71.573 DRIVES12.371 CONT4.848
H. BarnesF · #40	8	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2
K. JohnsonF · #3	8	3	0	0	0	0	0	+1
L. KornetC · #7	9	0	1	0	1	0	0	-3
D. HarperG · #2	24	16	7	1	1	0	0	-1

Team		76	38	14	4	4	8
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Playoff series

Jun 4

NY@

SAtoday

Jun 6

NY@

SAupcoming

Jun 9

SA@

NYupcoming

Jun 11

SA@

NYupcoming

Jun 14

NY@

SAupcoming

Jun 17

SA@

NYupcoming

Jun 20

NY@

SAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

217.5

Defensive · -8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY+15040%

SA-18064%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -4.5↗SpreadBet SA -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

-1.0 since open

Total

217.5

0.0 since open

Live · top performers so far

End of 3rd

Game flowNY ↔ SA

Recent swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 9.6

Just happened

End of the 3rd Quarter

K. Towns

Leading · End of 3rd · 26 min

18 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST

On pace: 33 PTS · 18 REB · 7 AST

J. Champagnie

Leading · End of 3rd · 24 min

15 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST

On pace: 30 PTS · 16 REB · 2 AST

How it's going

Tied 76-76 · End of 3rd. SA have outscored the other side 27-19 in the 1st quarter.

Win probability

SA vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

50 PTS · 26 REB · 14 AST

GS 37

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST

GS 20

SAstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

56 PTS · 29 REB · 12 AST

GS 40

Bench(5)

20 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA2nd Quarter · 2.3 · 48-55

+9pp→ 77% WP

Julian Champagnie · makes 22-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)

NY3rd Quarter · 1:07 · 73-74

+8pp→ 44% WP

De'Aaron Fox · misses free throw 2 of 2

NY3rd Quarter · 9.6 · 76-76

+9pp→ 44% WP

Miles McBride · makes 24-foot jump bank shot (Josh Hart assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NY	19	29	28	76
SA	27	28	21	76

Period scoring

NY won 2 · SA won 1

Anunoby 5

Harper 10

Brunson 8

Champagnie 9

Towns 10

Wembanyama 6

Shooting comparison

42%

30-72

38%

26-68

27%

8-30

3PT

27%

9-33

80%

8-10

83%

15-18

Play-by-play · 373 plays

period

event

player

Q3·0.0
End of the 3rd Quarter
NY 76·SA 76
−2pp
Q3·0.3
Spurs offensive team rebound
NY 76·SA 76
+4pp
Q3·0.3
Victor Wembanyama misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
NY 76·SA 76
−3pp
Q3·9.6
Miles McBride makes 24-foot jump bank shot (Josh Hart assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 76·SA 76
−9pp
Q3·28.3
Victor Wembanyama makes 1-foot driving dunk (Devin Vassell assists)
·
NY 73·SA 76
+4pp
Q3·43.2
Jalen Brunson out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
NY 73·SA 74
+5pp
Q3·1:05
Mitchell Robinson defensive rebound
NY 73·SA 74
Q3·1:07
De'Aaron Fox misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 73·SA 74
−8pp
Q3·1:07
De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 73·SA 74
+1pp
Q3·1:07
Landry Shamet shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NY 73·SA 73
+7pp
Q3·1:13
Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
NY 73·SA 73
+1pp
Q3·1:15
Jalen Brunson misses 14-foot two point shot
NY 73·SA 73
+3pp
Q3·1:19
Josh Hart defensive rebound
NY 73·SA 73
−1pp
Q3·1:24
Victor Wembanyama misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 73·SA 73
−3pp
Q3·1:37
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 73·SA 73
+3pp
Q3·1:37
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 72·SA 73
−1pp
Q3·1:37
Harrison Barnes shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NY 71·SA 73
−7pp
Q3·1:52
Devin Vassell makes 1-foot dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)
·
NY 71·SA 73
+5pp
Q3·1:55
Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 71·SA 71
Q3·1:55
Harrison Barnes enters the game for Keldon Johnson
·
NY 71·SA 71
Q3·1:55
Devin Vassell enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
NY 71·SA 71
Q3·1:55
Spurs offensive team rebound
NY 71·SA 71
+3pp
Q3·1:56
Miles McBride blocks Keldon Johnson's driving floating jump shot
·
NY 71·SA 71
−3pp
Q3·2:01
Jalen Brunson makes 14-foot pullup jump shot
NY 71·SA 71
−5pp
Q3·2:17
Victor Wembanyama offensive foul turnover
NY 69·SA 71
Q3·2:17
Victor Wembanyama offensive foul
NY 69·SA 71
−4pp
Q3·2:29
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
NY 69·SA 71
+1pp
Q3·2:31
Karl-Anthony Towns misses 29-foot three point jumper
NY 69·SA 71
+3pp
Q3·2:39
Landry Shamet defensive rebound
NY 69·SA 71
−1pp
Q3·2:41
De'Aaron Fox misses two point shot
NY 69·SA 71
−3pp

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

30-72

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

26-68

FG %

8-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-33

8-10

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-18

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

SA -4.5·O/U 217.5·NY +150/SA -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Live · model leanEnd of 3rdPolls every 30s

70.8%

NY wins · current

Pre-game: 91.6% NY

NY 76 · 76 SA

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

away leadsSA leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingNY3rd Quarter · 9.6 · 76-76
+9pp→ 44% WP
Miles McBride · makes 24-foot jump bank shot (Josh Hart assists)
SwingNY3rd Quarter · 1:07 · 73-74
+8pp→ 44% WP
De'Aaron Fox · misses free throw 2 of 2
SwingNY3rd Quarter · 2:52 · 68-71
+7pp→ 38% WP
Keldon Johnson · shooting foul
SwingNY2nd Quarter · 23.0 · 48-52
+8pp→ 30% WP
Karl-Anthony Towns · misses 1-foot tip shot
SwingSA2nd Quarter · 2.3 · 48-55
+9pp→ 77% WP
Julian Champagnie · makes 22-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

7.1%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
29.6%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
26.5%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
27.5%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.23

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+170

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Market steamed in our direction

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+52.0pp

best edge · NY · DraftKings

★ best

+142DraftKings

edge +52.0pp · implied 39.6%

no live price

Book	NY	SA	Best edge
DraftKings	+142★	-170	+52.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

SA vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
26.5± 8.9high
Victor WembanyamaSA
24.0± 9.7high
OG AnunobyNY
19.1± 5.7high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.5high
Victor WembanyamaSA
10.6± 6.8high
Josh HartNY
7.6± 2.5high

Assists

Stephon CastleSA
7.0± 2.0high
Jalen BrunsonNY
6.9± 3.0high
De'Aaron FoxSA
5.7± 2.1high

Blocks

Victor WembanyamaSA
2.7± 1.2high
Karl-Anthony TownsNY
1.0± 0.8high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

OG AnunobyNY
1.6± 1.4high
Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.3high
Mikal BridgesNY
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · hoopR