Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at NY?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+15NY

TOR

5-5

8297

6-4

WNBAWed, Jun 3FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNY -8.5

TOR · top performer

Marina Mabrey

G · #3

13.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Jonquel Jones

C · #35

22.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:26

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. SaballyF · #8	29	11	5-10	1-3	—	-24	6	3
L. JuskaiteF · #2	20	8	3-9	1-3	1-2	-21	5	2
B. SykesG · #20	34	17	8-18	0-1	1-1	-12	5	1
M. MabreyG · #3	26	17	7-13	2-6	1-2	-16	3	4
K. RiceG · #1	23	9	3-8	0-1	3-3	-4	5	2
Bench
M. CondeF · #10	21	7	2-5	1-2	2-2	-1	6	1
T. KeyF · #7	9	0	0-1	—	—	+3	1	1
N. MilicF · #31	8	4	2-4	—	—	+8	0	1
K. NurseG · #11	4	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
J. AllemandG · #22	23	7	3-6	1-3	—	-12	1	2
T. PouyeG · #32	3	2	1-1	—	—	+3	0	0
Team		82	34-75	6-19	8-10		32	17
DNP: I. Harrison, T. Fagbenle

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	30	19	5-15	1-5	8-8	+8	9	4
L. FiebichF · #13	26	14	4-7	2-4	4-4	+17	2	4
J. JonesC · #35	34	22	9-14	4-7	—	+16	17	2
M. JohannesG · #23	27	15	6-10	3-6	—	+7	2	2
P. AstierG · #18	28	10	4-9	2-3	0-1	+20	0	5
Bench
S. SaballyF · #0	14	12	3-7	2-4	4-5	-2	5	0
H. XuC · #21	10	4	2-2	—	—	+4	2	1
R. GardnerG · #7	15	0	0-4	0-1	—	-4	3	3
B. Laney-HamiltonG · #44	17	1	0-3	0-2	1-2	+9	0	3
Team		97	33-71	14-32	17-20		40	24
DNP: R. Carrera, R. Allen

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

Home

34-75

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-71

FG %

6-19

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-32

8-10

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jun 3

TOR82@

NY97today

Jul 12

NY91@

TOR93

Sep 20

NY@

TORupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -8.5

Between 7 and 10

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

172.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+28526%

NY-36078%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -8.5↗SpreadBet NY -8.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

172.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat TOR 97-82. J. Jones led with 22 PTS, 17 REB, 2 AST. NY outscored the other side 23-14 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 24 REB · 12 AST

GS 44

Bench(6)

20 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST

GS 19

NYstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 30 REB · 17 AST

GS 70

Bench(4)

17 PTS · 10 REB · 7 AST

GS 13

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	20	14	24	24	82
NY	17	23	30	27	97

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · NY won 3

Sabally 5

Jones 12

Sykes 4

Sabally 6

Mabrey 15

Stewart 9

Sykes 8

Fiebich 8

TOR

Shooting comparison

TOR

45%

34-75

46%

33-71

32%

6-19

3PT

44%

14-32

80%

8-10

85%

17-20

Play-by-play · 380 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 82·NY 97
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 82·NY 97
Q4·5.0
shot clock turnover
TOR 82·NY 97
Q4·29.0
Brittney Sykes makes running layup (Laura Juskaite assists)
·
TOR 82·NY 97
Q4·32.6
Laura Juskaite defensive rebound
TOR 80·NY 97
Q4·34.5
Breanna Stewart misses two point shot
TOR 80·NY 97
Q4·51.0
Laura Juskaite makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 80·NY 97
Q4·51.0
Tempo offensive team rebound
TOR 79·NY 97
Q4·51.0
Laura Juskaite misses free throw 1 of 2
TOR 79·NY 97
Q4·51.0
Marine Johannes shooting foul
TOR 79·NY 97
Q4·51.0
Laura Juskaite offensive rebound
TOR 79·NY 97
Q4·52.3
Marine Johannes blocks Laura Juskaite 's 9-foot driving layup
·
TOR 79·NY 97
Q4·1:06
Breanna Stewart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Leonie Fiebich assists)
·
TOR 79·NY 97
Q4·1:19
Laura Juskaite makes 27-foot three point jumper (Teonni Key assists)
·
TOR 79·NY 94
Q4·1:25
Tempo offensive team rebound
TOR 76·NY 94
Q4·1:26
Maria Conde misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 76·NY 94
Q4·1:33
Maria Conde enters the game for Kiki Rice
·
TOR 76·NY 94
Q4·1:33
Tempo Full timeout
TOR 76·NY 94
Q4·1:33
Tempo offensive team rebound
TOR 76·NY 94
Q4·1:33
Jonquel Jones blocks Kiki Rice 's 4-foot driving layup
·
TOR 76·NY 94
Q4·1:42
Pauline Astier makes driving layup (Leonie Fiebich assists)
·
TOR 76·NY 94
Q4·1:45
Leonie Fiebich offensive rebound
TOR 76·NY 92
Q4·1:48
Jonquel Jones misses 25-foot three point jumper
TOR 76·NY 92
Q4·2:07
Tima Pouye makes 8-foot fade away jump shot
TOR 76·NY 92
Q4·2:28
Kiki Rice defensive rebound
TOR 74·NY 92
Q4·2:32
Pauline Astier misses free throw 1 of 1
TOR 74·NY 92
Q4·2:32
Tima Pouye enters the game for Julie Allemand
·
TOR 74·NY 92
Q4·2:32
Laura Juskaite enters the game for Nyara Sabally
· ·
TOR 74·NY 92
Q4·2:32
Nyara Sabally shooting foul
·
TOR 74·NY 92
Q4·2:32
Pauline Astier makes driving layup (Marine Johannes assists)
·
TOR 74·NY 92

Betting line

NY -8.5·O/U 172.5·TOR +285/NY -360

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty held off Toronto Tempo, 97–82.

NY -8.5 cashed (won by 15). Total cleared the 172.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

TOR

eFG%

shooting

49.3%

56.3%

TOV%

ball control

8.1%

11.1%

OREB%

offensive glass

21.6%

31.4%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

10.7%

23.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Kiki RiceTOR · G
TS%.67095
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.7%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
67.7%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
64.4%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
66.4%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+320

Close price

+320

Open no-vig

22.8%

Close no-vig

22.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at NY?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.4pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

TOR

★ best

+175DraftKings

edge +2.4pp · implied 34.3%

no live price

Book	TOR	NY	Best edge
DraftKings	+175★	-230	+2.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NY vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 60 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
23.1± 13.1high
Breanna StewartNY
22.7± 8.6high
Sabrina IonescuNY
18.4± 8.4medium

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.7± 3.0high
Breanna StewartNY
8.7± 2.8high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
6.8± 2.8medium

Assists

Julie AllemandTOR
6.4± 3.6high
Sabrina IonescuNY
4.5± 2.1medium
Breanna StewartNY
3.8± 2.5high

Blocks

Breanna StewartNY
1.6± 1.0high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.1± 0.7high
Nyara SaballyTOR
0.9± 1.5medium

Steals

Julie AllemandTOR
1.4± 1.0high
Breanna StewartNY
1.2± 1.3high
Leonie FiebichNY
1.2± 1.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Toronto TempoNew York Liberty

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Mercury72Storm68Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop