May 29, 26sim 99
1168
9(H)75
EloWin probTime of year
TOR
58LiveEnd of 3rd
NY
70Updated 9:03 PM ET
END OF 3RD+12NY
TOR
5-4
5870
NY
5-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 380 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 16 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28493
Breanna StewartNY · FUSG%.27790
Jonquel JonesNY · CDRB%.25390
Updated 0s ago
TOR · top performer
Marina Mabrey
G · #3
14.3Game score
17
Pts
3
Reb
4
Ast
NY · top performer
Jonquel Jones
C · #35
17.9Game score
17
Pts
14
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Toronto Tempo at New York Liberty · live
WNBA · Box score
End of 3rd
TOR5-4
5870
NY5-4
TOR5-4NY5-4
TOR
5-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 21 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -18 | |
| 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -18 | |
| 25 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -15 | |
USG%.28493 AST/TO1.853 ORB%.03850 | ||||||||
| 25 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -10 | |
| 17 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | |
| 17 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| Team | 58 | 23 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 5 | ||
| DNP: I. Harrison, T. Key, T. Fagbenle, T. Pouye | ||||||||
NY
5-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 24 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +11 | |
USG%.27790 DRB%.24787 ORB%.05667 | ||||||||
| 16 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 24 | 17 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +13 | |
DRB%.25390 ORB%.08983 USG%.21847 | ||||||||
| 22 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| 18 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +17 | |
| 13 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
| 14 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +10 | |
| Team | 70 | 33 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 8 | ||
| DNP: R. Carrera, R. Allen | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
44
11
Ast
17
Season series
Jun 3TOR@NYtoday
TOR@NYtodayJul 12NY@TORupcoming
NY@TORupcomingSep 20NY@TORupcoming
NY@TORupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NY -8.5
Between 7 and 10
1.0pt· 6.3h
Total
172.5
High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
TOR+28526%NY-36078%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
0.0 since open
Total
172.5
+1.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
End of 3rdGame flowTOR ↔ NY
Just happened
End of the 3rd Quarter
TORM. Mabrey
GLeading · End of 3rd · 25 min
17 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST
On pace: 27 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST
NYJ. Jones
CLeading · End of 3rd · 24 min
17 PTS · 14 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 28 PTS · 23 REB · 2 AST
How it's going
NY lead TOR 70-58 (End of 3rd). J. Jones led with 17 PTS, 14 REB, 1 AST. NY have outscored the other side 23-14 in the 2nd quarter.
Win probability
NY vs TOR
Starters vs bench
production by unitTORstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
43 PTS · 16 REB · 10 AST
GS 31
Bench(4)
15 PTS · 7 REB · 1 AST
GS 12
NYstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
55 PTS · 23 REB · 11 AST
GS 46
Bench(4)
15 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST
GS 12
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 20 | 14 | 24 | 58 |
| NY | 17 | 23 | 30 | 70 |
Period scoring
TOR won 1 · NY won 2
20
17
Q1
Sabally 5
Jones 12
14
23
Q2
Sykes 4
Sabally 6
24
30
Q3
Mabrey 15
Stewart 9
TOR
NY
Shooting comparison
TOR
NY
44%
24-54
FG
44%
24-54
29%
4-14
3PT
46%
12-26
86%
6-7
FT
83%
10-12
Play-by-play · 278 plays
period
event
player
- Q3·0.0
End of the 3rd Quarter
TOR 58·NY 70
- Q3·0.0
(00:00) [Tempo] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
TOR 58·NY 70
- Q3·15.4
Satou Sabally defensive rebound
·
TOR 58·NY 70
- Q3·17.4
Laura Juskaite misses 9-foot two point shot
TOR 58·NY 70
+0.5pp
- Q3·24.8
Maria Conde defensive rebound
TOR 58·NY 70
- Q3·27.3
Rebekah Gardner misses driving layup
TOR 58·NY 70
- Q3·36.2
Marina Mabrey makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot
TOR 58·NY 70
−0.7pp
- Q3·51.2
Satou Sabally makes free throw 2 of 2
·
TOR 56·NY 70
- Q3·51.2
Satou Sabally makes free throw 1 of 2
·
TOR 56·NY 69
- Q3·51.2
Laura Juskaite shooting foul
TOR 56·NY 68
+1pp
- Q3·55.8
Han Xu defensive rebound
TOR 56·NY 68
- Q3·57.8
Marina Mabrey misses 32-foot three point jumper
TOR 56·NY 68
- Q3·1:07
Han Xu makes 5-foot turnaround jump shot (Rebekah Gardner assists)
·
TOR 56·NY 68
+1pp
- Q3·1:23
Nyara Sabally traveling turnover
·
TOR 56·NY 66
+1pp
- Q3·1:32
Satou Sabally makes free throw 2 of 2
·
TOR 56·NY 66
−0.9pp
- Q3·1:32
Satou Sabally makes free throw 1 of 2
·
TOR 56·NY 65
- Q3·1:32
Han Xu enters the game for Breanna Stewart
·
TOR 56·NY 64
- Q3·1:32
Laura Juskaite loose ball foul
TOR 56·NY 64
+2pp
- Q3·1:32
Liberty defensive team rebound
TOR 56·NY 64
- Q3·1:33
Laura Juskaite misses 10-foot running jump shot
TOR 56·NY 64
+0.9pp
- Q3·1:37
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton lost ball turnover (Julie Allemand steals)
·
TOR 56·NY 64
−1pp
- Q3·1:52
Marina Mabrey makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
TOR 56·NY 64
−3pp
- Q3·1:58
Nyara Sabally defensive rebound
·
TOR 53·NY 64
- Q3·2:00
Breanna Stewart misses two point shot
TOR 53·NY 64
−0.5pp
- Q3·2:17
Marina Mabrey makes 13-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 53·NY 64
−0.8pp
- Q3·2:22
Laura Juskaite defensive rebound
TOR 51·NY 64
- Q3·2:25
Satou Sabally misses free throw 1 of 1
·
TOR 51·NY 64
−1pp
- Q3·2:25
Nyara Sabally enters the game for Brittney Sykes
· ·
TOR 51·NY 64
- Q3·2:25
Julie Allemand shooting foul
TOR 51·NY 64
+1pp
- Q3·2:25
Satou Sabally makes 2-foot two point shot
·
TOR 51·NY 64
+0.9pp
Team stats
TOR
Away
Stat
NY
Home
24-54
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
24-54
44
FG %
44
4-14
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-26
6-7
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-12
11
Assists
17
5
Turnovers
8
Betting line
NY -8.5·O/U 172.5·TOR +285/NY -360
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q3away leadsNY leads
Ensemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
32.2%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Receipts
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+320
Close price
+320
Open no-vig
22.8%
Close no-vig
22.8%
Line barely moved
Player props
Player projections
NY vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Brittney SykesTOR18.7± 14.1low
- Marina MabreyTOR18.7± 12.5low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- Nyara SaballyTOR4.8± 3.2low
Assists
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Brittney SykesTOR3.7± 3.1low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
Blocks
- Nyara SaballyTOR1.3± 0.9low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
Steals
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Brittney SykesTOR1.4± 1.9low
- Julie AllemandTOR1.4± 1.5low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team rate stats
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
TOR
league avg
NY
43.0%
FG%
44.5
▶45.6%
34.1%
3PT %
32.8
▶35.3%
89.6
PPG
◀
85.0
86.6
17.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.7
13.2
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.4