MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Albies homered to left (393 feet), Smith scored and Olson scored. → win prob 92→99% ATL

TOP 8TH+5ATL

TOR

29-32

ATL

41-20

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 981 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Top 80-11 out

Pitcher· ATL

R. Suarez

0.1 IP, 0 ER

Batter· TOR

J. Sanchez

0-3

Live · model leanTop 8thPolls every 30s

80.4%

ATL wins · current

Pre-game: 69.0% ATL

TOR 2 · 7 ATL

ATL +5

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 8

away leadsATL leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingATLBottom 7th Inning · 2-7
+7pp→ 99% WP
Albies · homered to left (393 feet), Smith scored and Olson scored.
SwingATLBottom 3rd Inning · 2-4
+27pp→ 84% WP
Dub · ón homered to center (405 feet), Olson scored and Albies scored.
SwingTORTop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 48% WP
Lukes · homered to right (374 feet).
Lead flipATLTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 56% WP
Sánchez grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Lukes scored, Guerrero Jr. out at second, Pinango to third.

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.60

P. Corbin

2-1 · 3.65 ERA

G. Holmes

3-2 · 3.95 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

ATL no-vig %

57.2%

open 57.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.0%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
66.7%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.4%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
67.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

99.0%

+32.3ppvs pre-game · ATL favored

Leverage

±2.4

pp · next play

low · 4/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.5pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

TOR

no live price

ATL

★ best

-158DraftKings

edge +11.5pp · implied 57.5%

Book	TOR	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	+121	-158★	+11.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

ATL vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.3± 2.8low
Spencer StriderATL
6.7± 2.6low
Trey YesavageTOR
5.6± 2.2low

Hits

Michael Harris IIATL
1.3± 1.4high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.2± 1.1high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.1± 2.1high
Michael Harris IIATL
2.1± 2.6high
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
0.8± 1.3high
Michael Harris IIATL
0.7± 1.2high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
2.4± 2.4low
Grant HolmesATL
2.2± 2.0low
Spencer StriderATL
2.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One model★ Lock

● Live

TOR

Blue Jays

28-40

vs69.0%ATL

ATL★

Braves

45-21

TOR 31.0%win prob69.0% ATL

ATL 1577 · TOR 1480Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
N. Lukes★RF	2-4	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	0.2
SPRINT27.148
Y. Pinango★LF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	2.4
SPRINT2622
V. Guerrero Jr.★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	4.0
J. Sanchez★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	10.8
E. Clement★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.7
D. Varsho★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.6
K. Okamoto★3B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	1.3
SPRINT26.123
A. Gimenez★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	1.2
SPRINT27.560
B. Valenzuela★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	4.4
M. StrawRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.1
SPRINT29.597
Team	5-26	26	2	5	1	1	3	5	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

N. Lukes★RF

2-4

0.2

Y. Pinango★LF

1-3

2.4

V. Guerrero Jr.★1B

0-3

4.0

J. Sanchez★RF

0-3

10.8

E. Clement★2B

0-3

6.7

D. Varsho★CF

0-2

0.6

K. Okamoto★3B

1-3

1.3

A. Gimenez★SS

1-2

1.2

B. Valenzuela★C

0-2

4.4

M. StrawRF

0-1

2.1

Team

5-26

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
P. Corbin★SP	5.0	6	4	4	2	1	1	29.9
Y. RodriguezRP	1.1	1	1	1	1	0	0	2.3
A. MackoRP	0.2	2	2	2	0	0	1	6.0
Team	7.0	9	7	7	3	1	2	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

P. Corbin★SP

5.0

29.9

Y. RodriguezRP

1.1

2.3

A. MackoRP

0.2

6.0

Team

7.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
R. Acuna Jr.★RF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	3.5
SPRINT26.838
M. Harris II★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.9
M. Olson★1B	3-4	4	2	3	0	0	0	0	38.5
SPRINT25.513
O. Albies★2B	2-4	4	2	2	3	1	0	0	35.8
SPRINT27.354
M. Dubon★SS	1-4	4	1	1	3	1	0	0	23.5
SPRINT26.428
A. Riley★3B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.6
E. White★CF	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	12.5
H. Kim★SS	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	0	11.4
C. Tromp★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.7
M. YastrzemskiLF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.1

Team	9-29	29	7	9	7	2	3	1	—

Batting

Analytics

Player