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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAD
NYM

NYM

7-11

1
2
LAD

LAD

13-4

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
48,138 attended

Line movement

22 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

LAD no-vig %

63.6%

open 63.6%

-1.0-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL67.6%59.6%LAD NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

NYM 1 · LAD 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +18pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM1000000001
LAD100000012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 14, 26sim 97
    210
    19(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 93
    282
    19(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 92
    212
    19(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 90
    12
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 90
    23
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 90
    11
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-199

Close price

-199

Open no-vig

63.6%

Close no-vig

63.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, Apr 14·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-0/VegasLAD -199

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off New York Mets, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

NYM +1.5 cashed (LAD won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Kyle Tucker

Kyle Tucker

RF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM7-11
1
2
LAD13-4
NYM7-11·LAD13-4
NYM

NYM

7-11

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
2-44121101
SPRINT26.941
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
0-44000001
SPRINT2993
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-44000002
SPRINT25.310
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.716
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
0-33000011
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-33000002
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-33000002
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-33000001
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
1-33010000
SPRINT28.586
Team4-31311411111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. McLeanN. McLean★SP
7.0211280
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.0111210
Team8.0322490
LAD

LAD

13-4

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-33000010
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-33111010
SPRINT26.123
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-44010002
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-44001002
SPRINT24.74
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-33000003
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT27.354
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-33000002
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-11000010
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-22000000
Team3-2626232049
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
7.2411171
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.1000010
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.0000030
Team9.04111111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

LAD

  • B. Treinen
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      54%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      38%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·96.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

3

1

Runs

2

1

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 3-0

Apr 14NYMNYM0@LADLAD4
Apr 15NYMNYM1@LADLAD2today
Apr 16NYMNYM2@LADLAD8

Season series

LAD lead series 2-0

Apr 14NYMNYM0@LADLAD4
Apr 15NYMNYM1@LADLAD2today
Apr 16NYMNYM2@LADLAD8
Jul 24LADLAD@NYMNYMupcoming
Jul 25LADLAD@NYMNYMupcoming
Jul 26LADLAD@NYMNYMupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYMNYM+16338%
LADLAD-19967%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 8th Inning

NYMNYM
F. Lindor

F. Lindor

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

N. McLean

N. McLean

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

LADLAD
K. Tucker

K. Tucker

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.2 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat NYM 2-1. Tucker's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

LAD vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 1st Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 67% WP

Smith · doubled to left, Tucker to third.

LADTop 8th Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 65% WP

Robert Jr. · struck out looking.

LADBottom 8th Inning · 1-2
+20pp→ 90% WP

Tucker · singled to left, Rojas scored, Ohtani to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM1000000001
LAD10000001—2

Period scoring

NYM won 0 · LAD won 1

1
1

Inn 1

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Tucker 1

0

Inn 9

NYM
LAD

Play-by-play · 468 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  2. T9

    Alvarez struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  6. T9

    Alex Vesia pitches to Francisco Alvarez

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  7. T9

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  8. T9

    Bichette struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

    +6pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  13. T9

    Alex Vesia pitches to Bo Bichette

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  14. T9

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  15. T9

    Polanco struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

    +4pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  19. T9

    Alex Vesia pitches to Jorge Polanco

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  20. T9

    Vesia relieved Treinen

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  21. T9

    Espinal at second base.

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  22. T9

    Rojas at shortstop.

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  25. B8

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  26. B8

    Freeman lined out to right.

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  29. B8

    Brooks Raley pitches to Freddie Freeman

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

  30. B8

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 2

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

1

Runs

2

4

Hits

3

1

Errors

0

8

TB

4

1

HR

0

1

BB

4

11

K

9

4

LOB

8

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 7.5·NYM +163/LAD -199

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAD vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.8± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

72.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    68.3%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    69.9%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    68.8%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.67 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.