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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4LAD
NYM

NYM

7-10

0
4
LAD

LAD

12-4

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
52,838 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAD no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

-1.0-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL63.3%55.3%LAD NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

NYM 0 · LAD 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +18pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0000000000
LAD103000004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 15, 26sim 97
    211
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 93
    282
    19(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 93
    23
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 92
    113
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 92
    22
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 92
    172
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-163

Close price

-163

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Mon, Apr 13·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-0/VegasLAD -163

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off New York Mets, 4–0.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Jorge Polanco

Jorge Polanco

1B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Miguel Rojas

Miguel Rojas

SS

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM7-10
0
4
LAD12-4
NYM7-10·LAD12-4
NYM

NYM

7-10

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-44000000
SPRINT26.941
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
0-33000000
SPRINT2993
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-33000001
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-33000000
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-33010000
SPRINT25.310
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
1-33010000
SPRINT25.716
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
0-33000001
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT28.175
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
0-33000000
Team3-2828030002
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. PetersonD. Peterson★SP
5.0544471
C. KimbrelC. KimbrelRP
1.0100000
J. GerberJ. GerberRP
2.0200150
Team8.08445121
LAD

LAD

12-4

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-44100001
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-22100021
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-33011010
SPRINT2744
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-22010021
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-44120001
SPRINT24.74
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44113102
SPRINT28.175
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-44000004
S. EspinalS. Espinal★3B
0-44000001
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
3-44030001
SPRINT26.123
Team8-31314841512
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. WrobleskiJ. Wrobleski★SP
8.0200020
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0100000
Team9.0300020

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

8

0

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 3-0

Apr 14NYMNYM0@LADLAD4today
Apr 15NYMNYM1@LADLAD2
Apr 16NYMNYM2@LADLAD8

Season series

LAD lead series 1-0

Apr 14NYMNYM0@LADLAD4today
Apr 15NYMNYM1@LADLAD2
Apr 16NYMNYM2@LADLAD8
Jul 24LADLAD@NYMNYMupcoming
Jul 25LADLAD@NYMNYMupcoming
Jul 26LADLAD@NYMNYMupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYMNYM+13543%
LADLAD-16362%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

NYMNYM
J. Polanco

J. Polanco

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

D. Peterson

D. Peterson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

LADLAD
M. Rojas

M. Rojas

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

J. Wrobleski

J. Wrobleski

SP

Starting pitcherGem

8.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 2 H

How it ended

LAD beat NYM 4-0.

Win probability

LAD vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 3rd Inning · 0-4
+15pp→ 93% WP

Pages · homered to left (364 feet), Tucker scored and Freeman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0000000000
LAD10300000—4

Period scoring

NYM won 0 · LAD won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Smith 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Pages 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYM
LAD

Play-by-play · 481 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  2. T9

    Lindor grounded into double play, third to second to first, Semien out at second.

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  5. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Francisco Lindor

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  6. T9

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  7. T9

    Taylor popped out to first.

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

    +1pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  12. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Tyrone Taylor

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  13. T9

    ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  14. T9

    Semien singled to center.

    ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

    −2pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  17. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Marcus Semien

    ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  18. T9

    Scott relieved Wrobleski

    ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  19. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  20. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  21. B8

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  22. B8

    Ohtani flied out to right.

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  23. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  24. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  25. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  26. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  27. B8

    Joey Gerber pitches to Shohei Ohtani

    · ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  28. B8

    ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  29. B8

    Rojas singled to center.

    ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 0·LAD 4

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

0

Runs

4

3

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

3

TB

14

0

HR

1

0

BB

5

2

K

12

4

LOB

22

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8.5·NYM +135/LAD -163

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

LAD vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.8± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

72.6%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    67.6%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    70.8%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    68.1%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175