
NYM
7-10

LAD
12-4
Line movement
10 snapshots
LAD spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
LAD no-vig %
59.3%
open 59.3%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
LAD wins
NYM 0 · LAD 4 (by 4)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked LAD +18pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LAD | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-163
Close price
-163
Open no-vig
59.3%
Close no-vig
59.3%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Recap · MLB
os Angeles Dodgers held off New York Mets, 4–0.
LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NYM · top performer

Jorge Polanco
1B
3-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
LAD · top performer

Miguel Rojas
SS
4-3
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


NYM
7-10
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.941 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT2993 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.310 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.175 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 3-28 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
LAD
12-4
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT2744 | ||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT2744 | ||||||||
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT24.74 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT28.175 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.123 | ||||||||
| Team | 8-31 | 31 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 8.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
3
Hits
8
0
Runs
4
0
Errors
0
Current series
LAD win series 3-0
Season series
LAD lead series 1-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LAD -1.5
Total
8.5
Standard · 0.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 10 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 3rd Inning
J. Polanco
1BBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS
D. Peterson
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 4 BB
M. Rojas
SSBatter of the game
3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS
J. Wrobleski
SPStarting pitcherGem
8.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 2 H
How it ended
LAD beat NYM 4-0.
Win probability
LAD vs NYM
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPages · homered to left (364 feet), Tucker scored and Freeman scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LAD | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 |
Period scoring
NYM won 0 · LAD won 2
Inn 1
Smith 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Pages 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 481 plays
·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Lindor grounded into double play, third to second to first, Semien out at second.
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
+2pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Tanner Scott pitches to Francisco Lindor
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Taylor popped out to first.
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
+1pp
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Tanner Scott pitches to Tyrone Taylor
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Semien singled to center.
·
NYM 0·LAD 4
−2pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Tanner Scott pitches to Marcus Semien
·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Scott relieved Wrobleski
·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Top of the 9th inning
NYM 0·LAD 4
End of the 8th inning
NYM 0·LAD 4
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Ohtani flied out to right.
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Joey Gerber pitches to Shohei Ohtani
· ·
NYM 0·LAD 4
·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Rojas singled to center.
·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
NYM 0·LAD 4
Team stats
NYM
Away
Stat
LAD
Home
0
Runs
4
3
Hits
8
0
Errors
0
3
TB
14
0
HR
1
0
BB
5
2
K
12
4
LOB
22
Betting line
LAD -1.5·O/U 8.5·NYM +135/LAD -163
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
117
projections · 71 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
72.6%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
67.6%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
70.8%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
68.1%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.40 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
91% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
4 of 15 players in cohort