MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14MIL

23-37

216

MIL

36-21

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 977 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

28,154 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIL no-vig %

58.4%

open 56.3% · +2.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
66.8%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
67.6%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.7%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.82

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-143

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

59.1%

Market steamed in our direction

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.4pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

no live price

MIL

★ best

-149DraftKings

edge +12.4pp · implied 57.3%

Book	SF	MIL	Best edge
DraftKings	+124	-149★	+12.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.0± 2.6low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.1± 4.9low
Landen RouppSF
6.1± 2.1low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.5± 1.6high
William ContrerasMIL
1.3± 1.1high
Casey SchmittSF
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Casey SchmittSF
2.6± 2.1high
Jung Hoo LeeSF
2.2± 2.1high
Willy AdamesSF
2.2± 2.6high

RBIs

Casey SchmittSF
1.0± 1.2high
Rafael DeversSF
0.8± 1.6high
William ContrerasMIL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Adrian HouserSF
3.3± 2.7low
Logan WebbSF
3.1± 2.6low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

SF 2 · MIL 16 (by 14)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
MIL	0	7	0	1	0	2	2	4	16

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. Schmitt★DH	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.6
R. Devers★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	2	2	3.6
L. Arraez★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	7.3
SPRINT26.632
W. Adames★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.7
J. Lee★RF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	19.8
SPRINT27.148
M. Chapman★3B	1-2	2	1	1	2	1	1	0	18.5
SPRINT28.175
B. Eldridge★DH	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	3	2.2
E. Haase★C	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	2	0.9
J. Cox★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.0
B. Kennedy1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
V. BericotoRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
D. GilbertCF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.8

Team	5-31	31	2	5	2	1	5	10	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

C. Schmitt★DH

0-4

1.6

R. Devers★1B

0-2

3.6

L. Arraez★2B

1-3

7.3

W. Adames★SS

0-3

4.7

J. Lee★RF

1-4

19.8

M. Chapman★3B

1-2

18.5

B. Eldridge★DH

1-4

2.2

E. Haase★C

1-3

0.9

J. Cox★CF

0-1

0.0

B. Kennedy1B

0-1

0.0

V. BericotoRF

0-1

0.0

D. GilbertCF

0-3

0.8

Team

5-31

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
L. Roupp★SP	4.0	8	8	8	5	4	0	54.4
W. RamosP	2.0	3	2	2	2	1	0	0.4
M. GageRP	1.0	3	2	2	2	1	0	0.3
B. Kennedy1B	1.0	4	4	4	2	0	0	0.0
Team	8.0	18	16	16	11	6	0	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

L. Roupp★SP

4.0

54.4

W. RamosP

2.0

0.4

M. GageRP

1.0

0.3

B. Kennedy1B

1.0

0.0

Team

8.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. Yelich★DH	3-5	5	3	3	2	0	1	2	28.6
SPRINT27.148
J. Chourio★LF	2-4	4	2	2	3	0	2	1	21.9
B. Turang★2B	2-2	2	2	2	2	0	2	0	8.8
SPRINT28.586
W. Contreras★C	1-4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0	2.2
J. Bauers★1B	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	4	2	15.2
A. Vaughn★1B	2-4	4	0	2	2	0	0	0	3.8
S. Frelick★RF	2-5	5	1	2	1	0	0	0	21.4
L. Rengifo★3B	2-3	3	3	2	1	0	2	0	35.3
SPRINT27.148
D. Hamilton★SS	3-5	5	3	3	0	0	0	0	24.7
SPRINT29.294
J. OrtizSS	1-2	2	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.0
B. PerkinsCF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
Team	18-38	38	16	18	15	0	11	6	—

Batting

Analytics

Player