MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5MIL

23-38

MIL

37-21

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 985 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

29,728 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIL no-vig %

63.5%

open 62.2% · +1.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.3%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
67.2%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
70.7%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
66.6%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.26

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-186

Close price

-207

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

64.5%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

no live price

MIL

no live price

Book	SF	MIL	Best edge
DraftKings	+218	-272	+0.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.0± 2.6low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.6± 5.5low
Landen RouppSF
5.9± 2.2low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.5± 1.5high
Andrew VaughnMIL
1.3± 1.1high
William ContrerasMIL
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Willy AdamesSF
2.4± 2.6high
Casey SchmittSF
2.3± 2.2high
Jung Hoo LeeSF
2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

William ContrerasMIL
0.8± 1.1high
Casey SchmittSF
0.8± 1.3high
Rafael DeversSF
0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

Adrian HouserSF
3.3± 2.7low
Logan WebbSF
3.1± 2.6low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

SF 3 · MIL 8 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	3
MIL	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. Schmitt★DH	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	2	5.4
R. Devers★1B	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	4	9.0
L. Arraez★2B	2-5	5	1	2	0	0	0	1	0.9
SPRINT26.632
W. Adames★SS	2-3	3	1	2	1	1	1	0	3.9
SPRINT27.457
M. Chapman★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	10.2
B. Kennedy★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	4.6
D. Susac★C	3-4	4	0	3	0	0	0	1	0.3
V. Bericoto★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	10.2
J. Cox★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	7.6
B. EldridgeDH	1-1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13.7
J. LeeRF	1-1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.8
SPRINT27.148
D. GilbertCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.0
Team	10-37	37	3	10	3	1	2	14	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

C. Schmitt★DH

0-5

5.4

R. Devers★1B

0-5

9.0

L. Arraez★2B

2-5

0.9

W. Adames★SS

2-3

3.9

M. Chapman★3B

0-3

10.2

B. Kennedy★1B

0-3

4.6

D. Susac★C

3-4

0.3

V. Bericoto★RF

1-3

10.2

J. Cox★CF

0-3

7.6

B. EldridgeDH

1-1

13.7

J. LeeRF

1-1

0.8

D. GilbertCF

0-1

7.0

Team

10-37

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
T. McDonald★SP	5.0	5	3	3	3	4	1	14.2
E. MillerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.1
S. HentgesRP	0.1	0	1	1	2	0	0	1.0
C. KilianRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	0	1.7
T. BeckRP	1.0	5	4	4	1	1	0	9.7
Team	8.0	12	8	8	7	6	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

T. McDonald★SP

5.0

14.2

E. MillerRP

1.0

0.1

S. HentgesRP

0.1

1.0

C. KilianRP

0.2

1.7

T. BeckRP

1.0

9.7

Team

8.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. Yelich★DH	2-3	3	2	2	2	0	2	1	28.8
SPRINT27.148
J. Chourio★LF	2-4	4	2	2	1	0	1	0	13.7
B. Turang★2B	2-4	4	0	2	2	0	1	1	2.7
SPRINT28.586
W. Contreras★C	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	1	1	3.5
J. Bauers★1B	1-5	5	1	1	3	1	0	1	14.7
SPRINT2744
G. Mitchell★CF	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	1	0	8.5
SPRINT29.798
S. Frelick★RF	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	1	5.6
L. Rengifo★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.8
D. Hamilton★SS	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.0
Team	12-33	33	8	12	8	1	7	6	—

Batting

Analytics

Player