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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TB
BAL

BAL

21-28

1
4
TB

TB

32-15

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
13,956 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TB no-vig %

52.1%

open 52.6% · -0.6

+2.0+1.0TB SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL56.6%48.1%TB NO-VIG %May 18, 5 PMMay 19, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

BAL 1 · TB 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +21pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL1000000001
TB100001024

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+21.0pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

BAL

no live price

TB

★ best
-134DraftKings

edge +21.0pp · implied 53.8%

BookBALTBBest edge
DraftKings+103-134★+21.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 20, 26sim 97
    13
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 90
    211
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 90
    12
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 89
    210
    19(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 89
    23
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 88
    212
    19(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, May 19·Final/SeriesTB wins series 3-0/VegasTB -120

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off Baltimore Orioles, 4–1.

TB +1.5 cashed (BAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Taylor Ward

Taylor Ward

LF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Yandy Diaz

Yandy Diaz

DH

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL21-28
1
4
TB32-15
BAL21-28·TB32-15
BAL

BAL

21-28

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-44111101
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-44010002
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
1-44010000
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-33000011
SPRINT25.29
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-33000001
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
0-33000001
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
0-22000001
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-22000010
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-33010002
SPRINT28.175
J. JacksonJ. Jackson2B
0-11000000
Team4-2929141129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. BradishK. Bradish★SP
5.1422361
A. NunezA. NunezRP
0.2000010
K. AkinK. AkinRP
0.2100010
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.0011010
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
0.1211010
Team8.07443101
TB

TB

32-15

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT29.496
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-33010012
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
0-33100011
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
2-33122100
SPRINT25.716
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
1-33111011
SPRINT26.838
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
1-44011002
SPRINT2993
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-44010001
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
0-22000000
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
0-33000001
N. FortesN. FortesC
0-11000001
Team7-30304741310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. JaxG. Jax★RP
5.0311161
K. KellyK. KellyRP
1.0100000
I. SeymourI. SeymourRP
1.1000010
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
0.2000110
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0000010
Team9.0411291

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • K. Bradish
    102 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      29%·95.1 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      28%·87.3 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.9 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      18%·84.3 mph·25% whiff
  • K. Akin
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      61%·94.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      28%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      27%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      27%·91.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      27%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·84.3 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Nunez
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.5 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      29%·87.7 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      14%·86.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      7%·97.1 mph·— whiff
  • R. Garcia
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • CH
      38%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      23%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      23%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·95.8 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • G. Jax
    62 pitches·44% CSW
    • CH
      26%·92.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      23%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·88.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      13%·85.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      10%·93.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Legumina
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      31%·93.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      25%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.1 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·79.8 mph·— whiff
  • I. Seymour
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      50%·83.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      25%·91.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      17%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      50%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      40%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·79.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Baker
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      50%·86.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      40%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·87.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

7

1

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 3-0

May 18BALBAL6@TBTB16
May 19BALBAL1@TBTB4today
May 20BALBAL3@TBTB5

Season series

TB leads series 2-0

May 18BALBAL6@TBTB16
May 19BALBAL1@TBTB4today
May 20BALBAL3@TBTB5
May 25TBTB7@BALBAL9
May 26TBTB1@BALBAL6
May 27TBTB2@BALBAL11
Aug 14BALBAL@TBTBupcoming
Aug 15BALBAL@TBTBupcoming
Aug 16BALBAL@TBTBupcoming
Aug 17BALBAL@TBTBupcoming
Aug 21TBTB@BALBALupcoming
Aug 22TBTB@BALBALupcoming
Aug 23TBTB@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL-10150%
TBTB-12055%

↗2· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 23pp · Bottom 6th Inning

BALBAL
T. Ward

T. Ward

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

K. Bradish

K. Bradish

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

TBTB
Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

G. Jax

G. Jax

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TB beat BAL 4-1. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the bottom 6th inning (23pp).

Win probability

TB vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 59% WP

Díaz doubled to center, Aranda scored.

TBBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+23pp→ 76% WP

Díaz homered to center (439 feet).

TBBottom 8th Inning · 1-3
+8pp→ 94% WP

Palacios · doubled to right, Williams scored, Palacios to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL1000000001
TB10000102—4

Period scoring

BAL won 0 · TB won 2

1
1

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Palacios 1

0

Inn 9

BAL
TB

Play-by-play · 525 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  2. T9

    Alonso struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  6. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Pete Alonso

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  7. T9

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  8. T9

    Rutschman flied out to left.

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

    +1pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  15. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Adley Rutschman

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  16. T9

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  17. T9

    Henderson flied out to center.

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

    +2pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  19. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Gunnar Henderson

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  20. T9

    Baker relieved Legumina

    ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  21. T9

    Williams as designated hitter.

    BAL 1·TB 4

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BAL 1·TB 4

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BAL 1·TB 4

  24. B8

    · ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  25. B8

    Mullins struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  26. B8

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  27. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  28. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 1·TB 4

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

TB

Home

1

Runs

4

4

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

7

TB

13

1

HR

1

2

BB

3

9

K

10

8

LOB

10

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 7.5·BAL -101/TB -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.52

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

53.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

TB vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.4± 2.3high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

75.2%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    70.6%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    71.3%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    70.8%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.