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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4MIA
NYM

NYM

22-31

0
4
MIA

MIA

25-29

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
23,018 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIA no-vig %

48.3%

open 48.9% · -0.7

+2.0+1.0MIA SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL52.9%44.3%MIA NO-VIG %May 23, 9 PMMay 24, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

NYM 0 · MIA 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0000000000
MIA0000000044

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 59-50
61%Last 30 · 320-207
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, May 24·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 3-0/VegasMIA -131

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off New York Mets, 4–0.

MIA -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
MJ Melendez

MJ Melendez

DH

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Heriberto Hernandez

Heriberto Hernandez

LF

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM22-31
0
4
MIA25-29
NYM22-31·MIA25-29
NYM

NYM

22-31

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
0-44000012
SPRINT28.586
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.716
A.J. EwingA.J. Ewing★CF
2-44020001
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-44000000
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-33010012
SPRINT26.735
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-44000000
M. MelendezM. Melendez★DH
1-22010011
SPRINT26.941
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
0-33000010
H. SengerH. Senger★C
0-22000001
L. TorrensL. TorrensC
0-11000010
Team5-3131050058
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. ScottC. Scott★SP
5.2400250
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
0.2100000
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
0.2200100
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.0000010
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
0.1244201
Team8.1944561
MIA

MIA

25-29

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-22100030
SPRINT25.614
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-33120020
SPRINT2872
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
0-33000003
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
0-44000001
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT28.381
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
1-44010000
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-11000000
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
1-44010001
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
2-33020000
SPRINT28.381
H. HernandezH. HernandezLF
2-22124100
SPRINT28.483
G. PauleyG. Pauley3B
0-22000001
Team9-3232494156
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. PhillipsT. Phillips★RP
3.2200240
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.1200010
J. KingJ. KingRP
0.2000100
A. BenderA. BenderRP
1.0000100
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
1.1000020
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0100110
Team9.0500580

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • C. Scott
    94 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      46%·95.0 mph·21% whiff
    • ST
      29%·82.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      14%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      10%·83.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      1%·90.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      1%·82.4 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Williams
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      64%·83.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      36%·93.1 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Raley
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      38%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·86.7 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      36%·88.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      18%·90.9 mph·— whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    8 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      88%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·90.7 mph·— whiff

MIA

  • T. Phillips
    59 pitches·37% CSW
    • FS
      24%·88.0 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      24%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·84.1 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.7 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      15%·83.5 mph·75% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      39%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      22%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Petersen
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      65%·98.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      24%·88.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      12%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      31%·89.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      13%·82.6 mph·— whiff
  • J. King
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • SI
      46%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.5 mph·— whiff
  • A. Bender
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      55%·95.2 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      45%·81.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

0

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

MIA wins series 3-0

May 22NYMNYM1@MIAMIA2
May 23NYMNYM1@MIAMIA4
May 24NYMNYM0@MIAMIA4today

Season series

MIA leads series 3-0

May 22NYMNYM1@MIAMIA2
May 23NYMNYM1@MIAMIA4
May 24NYMNYM0@MIAMIA4today
May 29MIAMIA7@NYMNYM9
May 30MIAMIA@NYMNYMupcoming
May 31MIAMIA@NYMNYMupcoming
Jul 30MIAMIA@NYMNYMupcoming
Jul 31MIAMIA@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 1MIAMIA@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 2MIAMIA@NYMNYMupcoming
Sep 7NYMNYM@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 8NYMNYM@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 9NYMNYM@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYMNYM+10848%
MIAMIA-13157%

↗3· 3.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 9th Inning

NYMNYM
M. Melendez

M. Melendez

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

C. Scott

C. Scott

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

MIAMIA
H. Hernandez

H. Hernandez

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

T. Phillips

T. Phillips

RP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIA beat NYM 4-0. Morel's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

MIA vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 9th Inning · 0-0
+16pp→ 60% WP

Taylor · grounded out to third.

MIABottom 9th Inning · 0-0
+18pp→ 79% WP

Morel · doubled to left.

MIABottom 9th Inning · 0-4
+17pp→ 100% WP

Hern · ández homered to center (416 feet), Ruiz scored, Hicks scored and Edwards scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0000000000
MIA0000000044

Period scoring

NYM won 0 · MIA won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
4

Inn 9

Hern 4

NYM
MIA

Play-by-play · 573 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  2. B9

    Hernández homered to center (416 feet), Ruiz scored, Hicks scored and Edwards scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

    +17pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  5. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Heriberto Hernandez

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  6. B9

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  7. B9

    Edwards intentionally walked, Hicks to second.

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

    +0.8pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  12. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Xavier Edwards

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  13. B9

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  14. B9

    Hicks walked.

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  21. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Liam Hicks

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  22. B9

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  23. B9

    Sanoja hit sacrifice bunt to third, Ruiz to third.

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

    +3pp

  24. B9

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  25. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Javier Sanoja

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  26. B9

    Ruiz ran for Morel

    ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  27. B9

    ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  28. B9

    Morel doubled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

    +18pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 0·MIA 0

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

0

Runs

4

5

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

5

TB

15

0

HR

1

5

BB

5

8

K

6

14

LOB

17

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 7.5·NYM +108/MIA -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 954 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 20, 26sim 98
    181
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 96
    182
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 96
    212
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    211
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 95
    211
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 94
    202
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

MIA vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.3± 2.2low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.7± 3.3low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.8± 2.6high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.8± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.9%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    58.6%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.2%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.4%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.