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FINAL+1PHI
SF

SF

13-17

2
3
PHI

PHI

11-19

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
36,861 attended

Line movement

42 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

PHI no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL62.3%54.3%PHI NO-VIG %MODEL 58.7%May 2, 10 AMMay 23, 1 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

SF 2 · PHI 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF2000000002
PHI1000000023

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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MLB·Thu, Apr 30·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 3-0/VegasPHI -156

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off San Francisco Giants, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

SF +1.5 cashed (PHI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Heliot Ramos

Heliot Ramos

LF

1.550OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber

DH

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF13-17
2
3
PHI11-19
SF13-17·PHI11-19
SF

SF

13-17

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
3-44130010
SPRINT27.251
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
2-44120011
SPRINT28.175
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-44001001
SPRINT26.632
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
2-44021000
SPRINT2872
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-44000001
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-33000011
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-44000002
J. EncarnacionJ. Encarnacion★RF
0-33000001
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-44010002
SPRINT24.32
D. GilbertD. GilbertCF
0-11000001
Team8-35352820310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. WebbL. Webb★SP
7.0711261
E. MillerE. MillerRP
1.0000010
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
0.2322010
Team8.21033281
PHI

PHI

11-19

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-44000003
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-22111120
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT2744
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
2-44120000
SPRINT26.735
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-44010003
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-44111002
SPRINT28.688
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
1-44010000
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
3-44031000
SPRINT29.798
R. MarchanR. Marchan★C
0-33000000
Team10-33333103128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
6.2422370
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
0.2200000
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.1200020
C. ShugartC. ShugartRP
0.1000010
Team9.08223100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • L. Webb
    92 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      47%·92.1 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      21%·83.8 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      15%·85.8 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      12%·92.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      5%·89.7 mph·33% whiff
  • R. Walker
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      95%·95.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      5%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Miller
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      63%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      37%·86.5 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • C. Sanchez
    85 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      52%·95.0 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      34%·86.4 mph·31% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Banks
    27 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      26%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·89.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.6 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      22%·81.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      7%·83.1 mph·— whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      53%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      35%·97.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      12%·96.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Shugart
    4 pitches·50% CSW
    • ST
      50%·81.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      25%·91.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

10

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 3-0

Apr 28SFSF0@PHIPHI7
Apr 29SFSF0@PHIPHI0
Apr 30SFSF2@PHIPHI3today
Apr 30SFSF5@PHIPHI6

Season series

PHI leads series 3-2

Apr 7PHIPHI6@SFSF4
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF6
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF5
Apr 28SFSF0@PHIPHI7
Apr 29SFSF0@PHIPHI0
Apr 30SFSF2@PHIPHI3today
Apr 30SFSF5@PHIPHI6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF+12944%
PHIPHI-15661%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 42 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 62pp · Bottom 9th Inning

SFSF
H. Ramos

H. Ramos

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.550 OPS

L. Webb

L. Webb

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

PHIPHI
K. Schwarber

K. Schwarber

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

PHI beat SF 3-2. Stott's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (62pp).

Win probability

PHI vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 1st Inning · 2-1
+12pp→ 50% WP

Schwarber · homered to right (406 feet).

PHIBottom 4th Inning · 2-1
+15pp→ 64% WP

Marsh · doubled to left, García to third.

PHIBottom 9th Inning · 2-2
+62pp→ 81% WP

Stott · tripled to right, García scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF2000000002
PHI1000000023

Period scoring

SF won 1 · PHI won 1

2
1

Inn 1

Arraez 1

Schwarber 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
2

Inn 9

Stott 1

SF
PHI

Play-by-play · 528 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    SF 2·PHI 3

  2. B9

    Crawford reached on infield single to shortstop, Stott scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 3

    +39pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 3

  4. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Justin Crawford

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 3

  5. B9

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 2

  6. B9

    Sosa grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 2

    −20pp

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 2

  8. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Edmundo Sosa

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 2

  9. B9

    ·

    SF 2·PHI 2

  10. B9

    Stott tripled to right, García scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 2

    +62pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

  20. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Bryson Stott

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 2

  21. B9

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

  22. B9

    Marsh struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

    −12pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

  29. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Brandon Marsh

    · ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

  30. B9

    ·

    SF 2·PHI 1

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

2

Runs

3

8

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

10

TB

16

0

HR

1

3

BB

2

10

K

8

16

LOB

15

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 7·SF +129/PHI -156

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Justin CrawfordPHI · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PHI vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.4± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.9± 1.6high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    58.3%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.4%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.2%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.23 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 1, 26sim 97
    181
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 95
    72
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 94
    181
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 94
    183
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 94
    203
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 94
    265
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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