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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TB
MIA

MIA

21-26

3
6
TB

TB

30-15

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
16,788 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TB no-vig %

58.1%

open 59.3% · -1.2

-1.0-2.0TB SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 6.5TOTAL63.3%54.1%TB NO-VIG %May 16, 6 PMMay 17, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

MIA 3 · TB 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0020000103
TB100311006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.3pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

MIA

★ best
+620DraftKings

edge +16.3pp · implied 13.1%

TB

no live price

BookMIATBBest edge
DraftKings+620★-1220+16.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sun, May 17·Final/SeriesTB wins series 2-1/VegasTB -149

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off Miami Marlins, 6–3.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Jakob Marsee

Jakob Marsee

CF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero

3B

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA21-26
3
6
TB30-15
MIA21-26·TB30-15
MIA

MIA

21-26

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-55121001
SPRINT2872
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-44000011
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
2-44121000
SPRINT28.381
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
1-33011011
SPRINT2622
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
1-44010000
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
2-33020010
SPRINT27.765
L. JimenezL. Jimenez★3B
1-44010001
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
1-33110001
SPRINT28.586
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
0-22000000
H. HernandezH. HernandezLF
0-11000000
J. MackJ. MackC
1-22010000
Team11-35353113035
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. PerezE. Perez★SP
5.0555452
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
2.0211200
J. KingJ. KingRP
1.0000000
Team8.0766652
TB

TB

30-15

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
0-44000001
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-22112121
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
0-44000001
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-33111110
SPRINT25.716
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
0-33000011
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
2-44120000
SPRINT2993
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-33210010
SPRINT27.662
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-44110000
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
1-33013011
SPRINT27.765
Team7-3030676265
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. RasmussenD. Rasmussen★SP
5.1722220
K. KellyK. KellyRP
1.2000010
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
0.1311110
I. SeymourI. SeymourRP
0.2000010
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0100000
Team9.01133350

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • E. Perez
    102 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      35%·98.8 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      25%·97.5 mph·15% whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      12%·90.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      11%·87.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      4%·80.9 mph·67% whiff
  • T. Phillips
    43 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      33%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      30%·87.4 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      21%·84.2 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      16%·84.4 mph·33% whiff
  • J. King
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      42%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·82.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      8%·82.7 mph·— whiff

TB

  • D. Rasmussen
    93 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      31%·96.2 mph·8% whiff
    • FC
      28%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.5 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      15%·90.0 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      3%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      1%·79.9 mph·— whiff
  • K. Kelly
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      67%·91.5 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      24%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·93.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      5%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      36%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·85.7 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      27%·79.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      9%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Baker
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      60%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      40%·85.2 mph·33% whiff
  • I. Seymour
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • CH
      71%·82.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      29%·91.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

7

3

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 2-1

May 15MIAMIA2@TBTB7
May 16MIAMIA10@TBTB5
May 17MIAMIA3@TBTB6today

Season series

TB leads series 2-1

May 15MIAMIA2@TBTB7
May 16MIAMIA10@TBTB5
May 17MIAMIA3@TBTB6today
Jun 5TBTB@MIAMIAupcoming
Jun 6TBTB@MIAMIAupcoming
Jun 7TBTB@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

MIAMIA+12345%
TBTB-14960%

↗1· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 36pp · Bottom 4th Inning

MIAMIA
J. Marsee

J. Marsee

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

E. Perez

E. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

TBTB
J. Caminero

J. Caminero

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

D. Rasmussen

D. Rasmussen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TB beat MIA 6-3. Walls's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Win probability

TB vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 3rd Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 45% WP

Edwards · singled to center, Caissie scored.

TBBottom 4th Inning · 2-4
+36pp→ 83% WP

Walls · tripled to center, DeLuca scored, Mullins scored and Fortes scored.

TBBottom 5th Inning · 2-4
+13pp→ 87% WP

Caminero · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0020000103
TB10031100—6

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · TB won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Caminero 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Edwards 1

0
3

Inn 4

Walls 3

0
1

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Caminero 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Stowers 1

0

Inn 9

MIA
TB

Play-by-play · 591 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  2. T9

    Lopez popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  6. T9

    Hicks to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  7. T9

    Hicks to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  9. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Otto Lopez

    · ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  10. T9

    ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  11. T9

    Hicks grounded into fielder's choice to second, Mack out at second.

    · ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

    +3pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  15. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Liam Hicks

    · ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  16. T9

    · ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  17. T9

    Edwards lined out to left.

    · ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

    +4pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  20. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Xavier Edwards

    · ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  21. T9

    ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  22. T9

    Mack singled to right.

    ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

    −4pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  24. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Joe Mack

    ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  25. T9

    Baker relieved Seymour

    ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIA 3·TB 6

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIA 3·TB 6

  28. B8

    ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  29. B8

    Walls grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 3·TB 6

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

TB

Home

3

Runs

6

11

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

14

TB

16

0

HR

2

3

BB

6

5

K

5

19

LOB

18

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIA +123/TB -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.13

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-163

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 28, 26sim 97
    284
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 97
    21
    15(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 95
    12
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 94
    204
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 94
    282
    30(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 94
    11
    10(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TB vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.9%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    67.3%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    69.5%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    68.0%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.