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FINAL+1ATL
BOS

BOS

18-26

2
3
ATL

ATL

31-14

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
39,288 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

ATL no-vig %

57.3%

open 58.3% · -1.0

-1.0-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL62.3%53.3%ATL NO-VIG %May 14, 9 PMMay 15, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

BOS 2 · ATL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
BOS00000110002
ATL10010000013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.8pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

BOS

no live price

ATL

★ best
-144DraftKings

edge +11.8pp · implied 56.4%

BookBOSATLBest edge
DraftKings+119-144★+11.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Fri, May 15·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -144

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Boston Red Sox, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

BOS +1.5 cashed (ATL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Marcelo Mayer

Marcelo Mayer

2B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
BOS18-26
2
3
ATL31-14
BOS18-26·ATL31-14
BOS

BOS

18-26

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-33000011
M. GasperM. Gasper★C
2-55021000
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-44000001
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
0-44000002
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
2-33020010
SPRINT28.790
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
1-33111111
SPRINT27.560
A. MonasterioA. Monasterio★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT2744
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-33110012
SPRINT257
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-22000001
M. YoshidaM. YoshidaDH
0-11000000
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa2B
0-11000000
Team7-3333272149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. EarlyC. Early★SP
5.0522062
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.1000000
J. MoranJ. MoranRP
1.2100030
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0000020
Team9.07320112
ATL

ATL

31-14

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-44000001
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-44121101
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-33000000
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-44000003
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
1-44010002
SPRINT27.765
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-44111101
SPRINT27.148
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-44100000
S. LeonS. Leon★C
1-22010001
J. AzocarJ. Azocar★RF
1-22010000
D. SmithD. SmithDH
0-11000000
K. FarmerK. FarmerDH
0-11000001
M. YastrzemskiM. YastrzemskiLF
1-22011001
SPRINT2744
Team7-35353732011
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. StriderS. Strider★SP
5.1311340
D. LeeD. LeeRP
0.2100010
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
0.2211001
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.1000010
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0100120
D. FuentesD. FuentesRP
1.0000010
Team10.0722491

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • C. Early
    86 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      35%·93.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      27%·84.0 mph·7% whiff
    • SI
      21%·92.3 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      9%·81.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      8%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Moran
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • CH
      43%·82.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      24%·86.8 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      24%·94.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      5%·92.3 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      5%·80.2 mph·— whiff
  • G. Weissert
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • SI
      54%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·81.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.9 mph·— whiff
  • A. Chapman
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      40%·98.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      30%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      10%·92.4 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Samaniego
    5 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      80%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·83.2 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • S. Strider
    84 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      49%·95.4 mph·31% whiff
    • SL
      32%·84.1 mph·36% whiff
    • CH
      10%·85.2 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      10%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Suarez
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      43%·91.5 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      38%·97.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      19%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      30%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·88.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      10%·83.2 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      67%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.3 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      7%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lee
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      60%·82.6 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      30%·84.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      10%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Fuentes
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      70%·98.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      10%·92.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

2

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

May 15BOSBOS2@ATLATL3today
May 16BOSBOS3@ATLATL2
May 17BOSBOS1@ATLATL8

Season series

ATL leads series 1-0

May 15BOSBOS2@ATLATL3today
May 16BOSBOS3@ATLATL2
May 17BOSBOS1@ATLATL8
May 26ATLATL7@BOSBOS6
May 27ATLATL0@BOSBOS8
May 28ATLATL10@BOSBOS2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 4.1h

Moneyline

BOSBOS+11946%
ATLATL-14459%

↗7· 4.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 32pp · Bottom 10th Inning

BOSBOS
M. Mayer

M. Mayer

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

C. Early

C. Early

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H

ATLATL
D. Baldwin

D. Baldwin

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Strider

S. Strider

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATL beat BOS 3-2. Yastrzemski's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Win probability

ATL vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 67% WP

Baldwin · homered to center (407 feet).

BOSTop 7th Inning · 2-2
+19pp→ 35% WP

Mayer · homered to right center (378 feet).

ATLBottom 10th Inning · 2-3
+32pp→ 100% WP

Yastrzemski · doubled to left, Kim scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
BOS00000110002
ATL10010000013

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · ATL won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Baldwin 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

II 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Gasper 1

1
0

Inn 7

Mayer 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

0
1

Inn 10

Yastrzemski 1

BOS
ATL

Play-by-play · 583 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    ·

    BOS 2·ATL 3

  2. B10

    Yastrzemski doubled to left, Kim scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 3

    +32pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 3

  4. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  5. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 3

  6. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 3

  7. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  8. B10

    Tyler Samaniego pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    ·

    BOS 2·ATL 3

  9. B10

    Samaniego relieved Chapman

    ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  10. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  11. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  12. T10

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  13. T10

    Gasper lined out to shortstop.

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  14. T10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  15. T10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  16. T10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  17. T10

    Didier Fuentes pitches to Mickey Gasper

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  18. T10

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  19. T10

    Duran hit by pitch.

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

    −2pp

  20. T10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  21. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  22. T10

    Didier Fuentes pitches to Jarren Duran

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  23. T10

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  24. T10

    Kiner-Falefa grounded out to second, Monasterio to third.

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

    +5pp

  25. T10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  26. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  27. T10

    Didier Fuentes pitches to Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  28. T10

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

  29. T10

    Narváez struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

    +10pp

  30. T10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 2·ATL 2

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

2

Runs

3

7

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

13

TB

14

1

HR

2

4

BB

0

9

K

11

18

LOB

12

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 7.5·BOS +119/ATL -144

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.17

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-157

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 16, 26sim 99
    23
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 95
    113
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 95
    202
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    292
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 95
    172
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 94
    282
    30(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

ATL vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.6± 3.2high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.5± 3.6low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    2.0± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.8%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    65.4%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.8%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    65.2%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.