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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BOS
BOS

BOS

19-26

3
2
ATL

ATL

31-15

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
39,336 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

ATL no-vig %

56.4%

open 56.3%

+0.5-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL61.2%52.3%ATL NO-VIG %May 15, 6 PMMay 16, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 3 · ATL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0001000203
ATL1000100002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.2pp

best edge · BOS · DraftKings

BOS

★ best
+262DraftKings

edge +5.2pp · implied 26.0%

ATL

no live price

BookBOSATLBest edge
DraftKings+262★-372+5.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 15, 26sim 99
    22
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 95
    172
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 95
    283
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 94
    113
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 94
    202
    15(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 94
    202
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.10

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-143

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, May 16·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -129

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

BOS +1.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin

C

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS19-26
3
2
ATL31-15
BOS19-26·ATL31-15
BOS

BOS

19-26

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT29.294
M. GasperM. Gasper★C
1-44110000
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
2-44120001
SPRINT2872
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
2-44122101
SPRINT26.838
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
0-33001000
SPRINT26.123
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-44010001
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
0-44000001
A. MonasterioA. Monasterio★SS
0-44000000
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-33000000
Team7-3434373105
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. TolleP. Tolle★SP
8.0422131
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0000200
Team9.0422331
ATL

ATL

31-15

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-33122110
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-44000000
SPRINT27.354
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-44000000
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-44000001
SPRINT27.765
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-33000010
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-33000010
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-44000002
S. LeonS. Leon★C
0-33000000
J. AzocarJ. Azocar★RF
2-33120000
Team4-3131242133
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ElderB. Elder★SP
8.0733031
M. PerezM. PerezSP
1.0000020
Team9.0733051

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • P. Tolle
    85 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.8 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      25%·88.6 mph·8% whiff
    • SI
      21%·94.6 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      7%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      2%·88.7 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      30%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.2 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • B. Elder
    103 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      37%·91.4 mph·5% whiff
    • FF
      22%·92.8 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      18%·82.6 mph·27% whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·85.7 mph·25% whiff
  • M. Perez
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • CH
      43%·83.6 mph·75% whiff
    • FC
      29%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·89.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

4

3

Runs

2

1

Errors

1

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

May 15BOSBOS2@ATLATL3
May 16BOSBOS3@ATLATL2today
May 17BOSBOS1@ATLATL8

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 15BOSBOS2@ATLATL3
May 16BOSBOS3@ATLATL2today
May 17BOSBOS1@ATLATL8
May 26ATLATL7@BOSBOS6
May 27ATLATL0@BOSBOS8
May 28ATLATL10@BOSBOS2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS+10748%
ATLATL-12956%

↘1· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 49pp · Top 8th Inning

BOSBOS
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

P. Tolle

P. Tolle

SP

Starting pitcher

8.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

ATLATL
D. Baldwin

D. Baldwin

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

B. Elder

B. Elder

SP

Starting pitcher

8.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 7 H

How it ended

BOS beat ATL 3-2. Contreras's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (49pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATL vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 6th Inning · 1-2
+13pp→ 79% WP

Gasper · grounded out to second.

BOSTop 8th Inning · 3-2
+49pp→ 66% WP

Contreras · homered to left center (426 feet), Abreu scored.

BOSBottom 9th Inning · 3-2
+26pp→ 100% WP

Kim · grounded out to pitcher.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0001000203
ATL1000100002

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · ATL won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Baldwin 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Braves 1

0
1

Inn 5

Baldwin 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Contreras 2

0
0

Inn 9

BOS
ATL

Play-by-play · 472 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  3. B9

    Kim grounded out to pitcher.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

    −26pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  7. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Ha-Seong Kim

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  8. B9

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  9. B9

    Harris II walked, Dubón to second, Mateo to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

    +9pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  14. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Michael Harris II

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  15. B9

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  16. B9

    Dubón walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

    +6pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  18. B9

    Mateo stole second.

    ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  19. B9

    Mateo stole second.

    ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  23. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Mauricio Dubon

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  24. B9

    Mateo ran for Riley

    ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  25. B9

    ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  26. B9

    Riley safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Monasterio.

    · ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

    +4pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 3·ATL 2

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

3

Runs

2

7

Hits

4

1

Errors

1

13

TB

9

1

HR

1

0

BB

3

5

K

3

13

LOB

7

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 7.5·BOS +107/ATL -129

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

ATL vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.6± 3.2high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.5± 3.6low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    2.0± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.8%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    65.9%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.1%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    65.7%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jorge MateoATL · SS
    SPRINT3099
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872