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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7ATL
BOS

BOS

19-27

1
8
ATL

ATL

32-15

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
37,800 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

ATL no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

-1.0-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL62.3%54.3%ATL NO-VIG %May 16, 11 PMMay 17, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

BOS 1 · ATL 8 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0000000011
ATL320110018

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+14.0pp

best edge · BOS · DraftKings

BOS

★ best
+440DraftKings

edge +14.0pp · implied 17.4%

ATL

no live price

BookBOSATLBest edge
DraftKings+440★-730+14.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sun, May 17·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -144

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Boston Red Sox, 8–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Mike Yastrzemski

Mike Yastrzemski

LF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS19-27
1
8
ATL32-15
BOS19-27·ATL32-15
BOS

BOS

19-27

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
2-55020002
SPRINT29.294
M. GasperM. Gasper★C
0-44000002
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-44000000
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-33010000
SPRINT26.838
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-33010010
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
0-44000001
A. MonasterioA. Monasterio★SS
1-44010000
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-22010000
N. SogardN. Sogard★3B
1-44011001
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa2B
1-11010000
SPRINT27.560
C. WongC. WongC
1-22110001
SPRINT27.354
Team9-3636191017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BelloB. Bello★SP
5.0877312
R. WatsonR. WatsonRP
3.0011340
Team8.0888652
ATL

ATL

32-15

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
0-22002020
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-55110001
SPRINT27.354
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-33001011
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-44100000
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
2-44223101
SPRINT27.765
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-44011000
J. MateoJ. Mateo★SS
1-33210011
SPRINT3099
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
2-33221110
SPRINT2744
J. AzocarJ. Azocar★RF
1-33010011
Team8-3131888265
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. HolmesG. Holmes★SP
6.0500140
R. LopezR. LopezRP
2.0200020
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0211010
Team9.0911170

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • B. Bello
    98 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      40%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      26%·88.8 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      11%·83.5 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      9%·87.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      9%·94.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      5%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Watson
    48 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      33%·93.3 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      31%·89.1 mph·38% whiff
    • ST
      19%·85.0 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·82.6 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • G. Holmes
    87 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      38%·85.9 mph·26% whiff
    • FF
      30%·94.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·89.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      5%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Lopez
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      62%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·84.1 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      4%·84.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      4%·72.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      47%·86.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      27%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

8

1

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

May 15BOSBOS2@ATLATL3
May 16BOSBOS3@ATLATL2
May 17BOSBOS1@ATLATL8today

Season series

ATL leads series 2-1

May 15BOSBOS2@ATLATL3
May 16BOSBOS3@ATLATL2
May 17BOSBOS1@ATLATL8today
May 26ATLATL7@BOSBOS6
May 27ATLATL0@BOSBOS8
May 28ATLATL10@BOSBOS2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS+11946%
ATLATL-14459%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 1st Inning

BOSBOS
I. Kiner-Falefa

I. Kiner-Falefa

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Bello

B. Bello

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 7 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

ATLATL
M. Yastrzemski

M. Yastrzemski

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

G. Holmes

G. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATL beat BOS 8-1. Riley's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

ATL vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+18pp→ 89% WP

Riley · homered to left center (431 feet), Albies scored and Harris II scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0000000011
ATL32011001—8

Period scoring

BOS won 0 · ATL won 5

0
3

Inn 1

Riley 3

0
2

Inn 2

Baldwin 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Yastrzemski 1

0
1

Inn 5

Smith 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Baldwin 1

1

Inn 9

Sogard 1

BOS
ATL

Play-by-play · 541 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BOS 1·ATL 8

  2. T9

    Duran struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BOS 1·ATL 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 1·ATL 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 1·ATL 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 1·ATL 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 1·ATL 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 1·ATL 8

  8. T9

    Tyler Kinley pitches to Jarren Duran

    · ·

    BOS 1·ATL 8

  9. T9

    ·

    BOS 1·ATL 8

  10. T9

    Sogard doubled to right, Wong scored.

    · ·

    BOS 1·ATL 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 1·ATL 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

  15. T9

    Tyler Kinley pitches to Nick Sogard

    · ·

    BOS 1·ATL 8

  16. T9

    ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

  17. T9

    Wong singled to right.

    ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

  20. T9

    Tyler Kinley pitches to Connor Wong

    ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

  21. T9

    ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

  22. T9

    Monasterio popped out to first.

    ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

  25. T9

    Tyler Kinley pitches to Andruw Monasterio

    ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

  26. T9

    ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

  27. T9

    Mayer fouled out to third.

    ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

  30. T9

    Tyler Kinley pitches to Marcelo Mayer

    ·

    BOS 0·ATL 8

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

1

Runs

8

9

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

13

TB

16

0

HR

2

1

BB

6

7

K

5

17

LOB

19

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 8.5·BOS +119/ATL -144

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.88

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-156

Close price

-144

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

56.4%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 22, 26sim 97
    204
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 97
    282
    30(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 97
    283
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 96
    284
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 96
    134
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 94
    174
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

ATL vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    2.0± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.5%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    65.8%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    67.8%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    65.7%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.96 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jorge MateoATL · SS
    SPRINT3099
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872