MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PHI

32-28

PHI

32-29

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 980 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

40,453 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.0 · +0.5

PHI no-vig %

65.6%

open 63.1% · +2.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
53.8%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.5%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.2%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.53

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+159

Close price

+178

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

34.4%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+29.0pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

★ best

+427DraftKings

edge +29.0pp · implied 17.9%

PHI

no live price

Book	SD	PHI	Best edge
DraftKings	+427★	-680	+29.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHI vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.8± 3.4low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.2± 2.9low
Zack WheelerPHI
5.7± 2.4low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.4± 1.2high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.2± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.9± 0.9high

Total bases

Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.9± 1.8high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.8± 1.6high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Manny MachadoSD
0.7± 0.9high
Bryce HarperPHI
0.5± 0.7high
Edmundo SosaPHI
0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.7± 2.6low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 2.6low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.2± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

SD 2 · PHI 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2
PHI	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
F. Tatis Jr.★RF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	2	6.5
SPRINT28.483
M. Andujar★DH	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	10.8
SPRINT26.530
M. Machado★3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2	12.6
SPRINT24.32
G. Sheets★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	8.3
X. Bogaerts★SS	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	5.3
T. France★1B	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	26.2
SPRINT24.74
J. Merrill★CF	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	1	6.1
SPRINT28.688
J. Bowen★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.1
R. Duran★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1.7
B. JohnsonRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.6
S. Taylor2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.0

Team	6-33	33	2	6	2	0	2	11	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

F. Tatis Jr.★RF

1-4

6.5

M. Andujar★DH

1-4

10.8

M. Machado★3B

1-4

12.6

G. Sheets★1B

0-3

8.3

X. Bogaerts★SS

0-3

5.3

T. France★1B

2-4

26.2

J. Merrill★CF

1-4

6.1

J. Bowen★CF

0-3

6.1

R. Duran★C

0-1

1.7

B. JohnsonRF

0-1

4.6

S. Taylor2B

0-2

4.0

Team

6-33

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
W. Buehler★SP	6.0	4	1	1	2	6	0	10.0
J. AdamRP	0.2	3	2	2	0	2	2	32.4
W. PeraltaRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	15.3
Team	8.0	8	3	3	2	8	2	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

W. Buehler★SP

6.0

10.0

J. AdamRP

0.2

32.4

W. PeraltaRP

1.1

15.3

Team

8.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
K. Schwarber★DH	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	1	2	4.9
SPRINT25.818
T. Turner★SS	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	5.0
B. Harper★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	5.9
B. Marsh★LF	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	1	9.3
SPRINT28.175
A. Bohm★3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	5.6
B. Stott★2B	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	14.1
SPRINT28.688
J.T. Realmuto★C	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0	20.6
SPRINT28.381
A. Garcia★RF	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	1	1.7
SPRINT26.735
J. Crawford★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	4.0
Team	8-31	31	3	8	3	2	2	8	—

Batting

Analytics

Player