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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5TEX
TEX

TEX

11-9

5
0
SEA

SEA

8-13

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
28,253 attended

Line movement

13 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 6.5

open O/U 6.5

SEA no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0SEA SPREADO/U 7.0O/U 6.0TOTAL59.1%51.1%SEA NO-VIG %MODEL 51.8%May 2, 2 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 5 · SEA 0 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX1010001025
SEA0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 27, 26sim 98
    25
    14(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 98
    52
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 98
    132
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 27, 26sim 97
    303
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 96
    301
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 96
    231
    13(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Apr 17·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 2-1/VegasSEA -136

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 5–0.

TEX +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo

RF

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX11-9
5
0
SEA8-13
TEX11-9·SEA8-13
TEX

TEX

11-9

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-44111112
SPRINT28.278
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
2-44220000
SPRINT24.96
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
3-55131002
SPRINT2872
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
3-55131001
SPRINT2744
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
1-44010001
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-22010011
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
3-55031000
SPRINT25.920
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-44000002
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
1-55010002
A. McCutchenA. McCutchenDH
0-11001001
Team15-393951551212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. deGromJ. deGrom★SP
4.0400230
G. CollyerG. CollyerRP
1.1100120
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
0.2100000
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
1.0000110
C. WinnC. WinnRP
1.0000110
J. LatzJ. LatzRP
1.0000000
Team9.0600570
SEA

SEA

8-13

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
0-22000000
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-33000010
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-44010002
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
2-22020020
SPRINT23.81
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44000001
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
0-22000001
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT25.513
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-22010000
SPRINT25.920
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-22010020
SPRINT27.662
L. RivasL. Rivas3B
0-22000002
R. RefsnyderR. RefsnyderDH
0-22000000
M. GarverM. GarverC
0-22000000
Team6-3131060057
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
5.1722171
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
0.2100020
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
0.2311010
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
2.1422120
Team9.015552121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SEA

  • E. Bazardo
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      57%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      43%·82.0 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

6

5

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 2-1

Apr 18TEXTEX5@SEASEA0today
Apr 18TEXTEX3@SEASEA7
Apr 19TEXTEX2@SEASEA5

Season series

TEX leads series 4-0

Apr 7SEASEA1@TEXTEX2
Apr 8SEASEA2@TEXTEX3
Apr 8SEASEA0@TEXTEX3
Apr 18TEXTEX5@SEASEA0today
Apr 18TEXTEX3@SEASEA7
Apr 19TEXTEX2@SEASEA5
Jul 25SEASEA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 25SEASEA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 26SEASEA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 27SEASEA@TEXTEXupcoming
Sep 9TEXTEX@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 9TEXTEX@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 10TEXTEX@SEASEAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX+11347%
SEASEA-13658%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 1st Inning

TEXTEX
B. Nimmo

B. Nimmo

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

J. deGrom

J. deGrom

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

SEASEA
J. Naylor

J. Naylor

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TEX beat SEA 5-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SEA vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 1st Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 57% WP

Rodr · íguez doubled to right, Raleigh to third.

TEXBottom 1st Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 59% WP

Raley · struck out swinging.

TEXTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 67% WP

Seager · doubled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX1010001025
SEA0000000000

Period scoring

TEX won 4 · SEA won 0

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Langford 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Burger 1

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

McCutchen 1

TEX
SEA

Play-by-play · 634 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  2. B9

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  3. B9

    Young flied out to right.

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  8. B9

    Jacob Latz pitches to Cole Young

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  9. B9

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  10. B9

    Garver flied out to left.

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  15. B9

    Jacob Latz pitches to Mitch Garver

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  16. B9

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  17. B9

    Crawford grounded out to first.

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

    −0.5pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  21. B9

    Jacob Latz pitches to J.P. Crawford

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  22. B9

    Latz relieved Winn

    ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  25. T9

    · ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  26. T9

    Jansen struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

  30. T9

    Casey Legumina pitches to Danny Jansen

    · ·

    TEX 5·SEA 0

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

5

Runs

0

15

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

24

TB

7

1

HR

0

2

BB

5

12

K

7

24

LOB

17

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 6.5·TEX +113/SEA -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

SEA vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    53.3%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.4%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.8%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872