Matchup orbital
3
TB
TB
17-11
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME
2
CLE
CLE
15-15
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
TB wins
TB 3 · CLE 2 (by 1)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked CLE +4pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
TB17-11
TB
15-15CLE
CLE
Recap · MLB
ampa Bay Rays went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.
TB +1.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 3.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Current series
TB wins series 2-1
TB3@CLE2todayTB1@CLE0TB1@CLE3Season series
TB leads series 1-0
TB3@CLE2todayTB1@CLE0TB1@CLE3CLE@TBupcomingCLE@TBupcomingCLE@TBupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CLE -1.5
Total
8.0
Defensive · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
TB+11946%CLE-14359%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement
1 snapshot on file
Movement tracking online — chart appears once we have two or more snapshots logged for this game. Keep this tab open and refresh after the next ingest cycle.
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 31pp · Bottom 9th Inning
TB
R. Vilade
RFBatter of the game
3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS
S. Matz
SPStarting pitcher
7.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB
CLE
K. Manzardo
1BBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS
P. Messick
SPStarting pitcher
5.2 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB
How it ended
TB beat CLE 3-2. Valera's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
CLE vs TB
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSchneemann · homered to left center (386 feet), Fry scored.
Aranda · homered to right (373 feet).
Valera · struck out swinging.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Period scoring
TB won 2 · CLE won 1
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Schneemann 2
Inn 6
Vilade 1
Inn 7
Inn 8
Aranda 1
Inn 9
Game flow · key plays
- B9
Schneemann struck out swinging.
TB 3·CLE 2
−22pp
- B9
Valera struck out swinging.
TB 3·CLE 2
−31pp
- B9
DeLauter doubled to right, Manzardo to third.
TB 3·CLE 2
+30pp
- T8
Vilade singled to center, Palacios scored.
TB 3·CLE 2
−22pp
- T8
Aranda homered to right (373 feet).
TB 2·CLE 2
−26pp
- B5
Schneemann homered to left center (386 feet), Fry scored.
TB 0·CLE 2
+22pp
Team stats
TB
Away
Stat
CLE
Home
7
Hits
6
0
Errors
0
3
Runs
2
Player box score
TB
17-11
Y. Diaz★
1B
OPS
0.400
H-AB
0-3
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Aranda★
1B
OPS
1.250
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
1
HR
1
J. Caminero★
3B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
R. Vilade★
RF
OPS
1.500
H-AB
3-4
R
0
RBI
2
HR
0
J. DeLuca★
RF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
C. Simpson★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
B. Williamson★
2B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
N. Fortes★
C
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
T. Walls★
SS
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H. Feduccia
C
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
7-34
R
3
RBI
3
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y. Diaz★1B | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
J. Aranda★1B | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.250 |
J. Caminero★3B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
R. Vilade★RF | 3-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.500 |
J. DeLuca★RF | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
C. Simpson★LF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
B. Williamson★2B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
N. Fortes★C | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
T. Walls★SS | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
H. FeducciaC | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 7-34 | 3 | 3 | 1 | — |
S. Matz★
SP
IP
7.0
H
4
ER
2
K
2
I. Seymour
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
2
B. Baker
RP
IP
1.0
H
2
ER
0
K
2
IP
9.0
H
6
ER
2
K
6
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
S. Matz★SP | 7.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
I. SeymourRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
B. BakerRP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
CLE
15-15
S. Kwan★
CF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
A. Martinez★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Ramirez★
3B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
R. Hoskins★
1B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
C. DeLauter★
RF
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
D. Fry★
RF
OPS
0.333
H-AB
0-2
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
D. Schneemann★
CF
OPS
1.250
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
2
HR
1
A. Hedges★
C
OPS
1.167
H-AB
1-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
B. Rocchio★
SS
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
K. Manzardo
1B
OPS
2.000
H-AB
1-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
G. Valera
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
6-32
R
2
RBI
2
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S. Kwan★CF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
A. Martinez★LF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
J. Ramirez★3B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
R. Hoskins★1B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
C. DeLauter★RF | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
D. Fry★RF | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
D. Schneemann★CF | 1-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.250 |
A. Hedges★C | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.167 |
B. Rocchio★SS | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
K. Manzardo1B | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.000 |
G. ValeraLF | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 6-32 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
P. Messick★
SP
IP
5.2
H
3
ER
1
K
9
M. Festa
RP
IP
0.1
H
0
ER
0
K
0
E. Sabrowski
RP
IP
0.2
H
1
ER
0
K
1
H. Gaddis
RP
IP
0.1
H
3
ER
2
K
0
C. Holderman
RP
IP
2.0
H
0
ER
0
K
1
IP
9.0
H
7
ER
3
K
11
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
P. Messick★SP | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
M. FestaRP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
E. SabrowskiRP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
H. GaddisRP | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
C. HoldermanRP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 7 | 3 | 11 |
Betting line
CLE -1.5·O/U 8·TB +119/CLE -143