Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at CLE?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 27, 2026

FINAL+1TB

17-11

CLE

15-15

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

18,029 attended

Line movement

53 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CLE no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.4%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
54.4%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.9%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.5%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.88 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at CLE?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

CLE vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.8± 2.5medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 3.4medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.1± 2.1medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.2± 0.9high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.1± 1.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Travis BazzanaCLE
2.1± 3.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.6± 1.3high
Jonny DeLucaTB
1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

Travis BazzanaCLE
0.6± 1.6high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.6± 1.3high
Jonny DeLucaTB
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.7± 2.6medium
Joey CantilloCLE
2.5± 2.7medium
Tanner BibeeCLE
2.5± 2.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CLE

.715

OPS

◀

.718

.682

.333

OBP

◀

.319

.313

4.37

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.99

3.88

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.82

1.22

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.26

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 3 · CLE 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	3
CLE	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.327	3	1	0	0	0	2	1
J. Aranda1B	.228	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. Caminero3B	.259	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. ViladeRF	.344	4	0	3	2	0	0	1
J. DeLucaRF	.283	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.309	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Williamson2B	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. FortesC	.292	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. WallsSS	.200	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. Palacios2B	.256	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.138	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. FeducciaC	.241	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	3	7	3	1	3	11

Player

.327

.228

.259

.344

.283

.309

.247

.292

.200

.256

.138

.241

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. MatzSP	7.0	4	2	2	1	2	95
I. SeymourRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	18
B. BakerRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	23
Team	9.0	6	2	2	2	6	136

Player

S. MatzSP

7.0

I. SeymourRP

1.0

B. BakerRP

1.0

Team

9.0

136

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.217	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. MartinezLF	.276	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Ramirez3B	.229	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Hoskins1B	.203	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. DeLauterRF	.245	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
D. FryRF	.222	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
D. SchneemannCF	.314	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
A. HedgesC	.286	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. RocchioSS	.269	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.203	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. ValeraLF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. NaylorC	.129	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	6	2	1	2	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MessickSP	5.2	3	1	1	2	9	95
M. FestaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
E. SabrowskiRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	20
H. GaddisRP	0.1	3	2	2	0	0	13
C. HoldermanRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	23
Team	9.0	7	3	3	3	11	154

Team

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

CLE vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.