Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 26, 2026

FINAL+2TOR

CLE

15-14

TOR

12-15

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

41,136 attended

Line movement

48 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TOR no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.9%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
53.4%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.1%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.8%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.8low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.8± 2.5medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.1± 2.1medium

Hits

Travis BazzanaCLE
1.1± 1.1high
George SpringerTOR
1.1± 0.8high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Travis BazzanaCLE
2.1± 3.0high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.1± 2.2high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.8± 1.0high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
0.7± 0.7high
Travis BazzanaCLE
0.6± 1.6high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
2.8± 2.7medium
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
2.8± 3.3low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.7± 2.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

TOR

.682

OPS

.718

▶

.706

.313

OBP

.319

.313

3.99

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.10

3.82

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.10

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

CLE 2 · TOR 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
TOR	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.225	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. MartinezLF	.289	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
J. Ramirez3B	.229	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. Hoskins1B	.212	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
D. FryRF	.235	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. SchneemannCF	.318	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Brito2B	.176	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
A. HedgesC	.273	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.278	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
G. ValeraLF	.229	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Manzardo1B	.192	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. DeLauterRF	.233	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	8	2	0	5	10

Player

.225

.289

.229

.212

.235

.318

.176

.273

.278

.229

.192

.233

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. CecconiSP	5.2	6	4	4	1	5	90
T. HerrinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
C. HoldermanRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	12
Team	8.0	6	4	4	1	8	117

Player

S. CecconiSP

5.2

T. HerrinRP

1.0

C. HoldermanRP

1.1

Team

8.0

117

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. Clement2B	.321	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. VarshoCF	.230	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.340	4	1	3	1	0	0	0
J. SanchezRF	.266	3	1	1	3	1	0	0
K. Okamoto3B	.229	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Sosa2B	.240	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. PinangoLF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. SchneiderLF	.140	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. ValenzuelaC	.147	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. StrawRF	.316	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	4	6	4	1	1	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. CorbinSP	4.2	6	2	2	2	4	84
B. FisherRP	1.1	1	0	0	2	2	19
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	24
L. VarlandRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	20
Team	9.0	8	2	2	5	10	158

Team

CLE

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.