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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3CIN
CIN

CIN

25-24

4
1
PHI

PHI

25-24

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
37,527 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PHI no-vig %

56.3%

open 55.1% · +1.2

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL60.3%51.1%PHI NO-VIG %May 18, 5 PMMay 19, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 4 · PHI 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0002002004
PHI0010000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.6pp

best edge · PHI · DraftKings

CIN

no live price

PHI

★ best
+122DraftKings

edge +8.6pp · implied 42.3%

BookCINPHIBest edge
DraftKings-159+122★+8.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 25, 26sim 96
    223
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 96
    224
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 96
    223
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 27, 26sim 95
    25
    14(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 95
    52
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 94
    135
    12(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, May 19·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -149

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 4–1.

CIN +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Tyler Stephenson

Tyler Stephenson

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Trea Turner

Trea Turner

SS

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN25-24
4
1
PHI25-24
CIN25-24·PHI25-24
CIN

CIN

25-24

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-55001002
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-33111012
SPRINT2872
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT28.483
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
1-33010010
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
0-33001002
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
1-33011001
SPRINT27.457
B. DunnB. Dunn★RF
2-44120001
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
1-11110030
SPRINT26.735
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-44000000
Team7-3030474058
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BurnsC. Burns★SP
6.0311091
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
1.0000120
S. MollS. MollRP
1.0000010
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0000020
Team9.03111141
PHI

PHI

25-24

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44111101
SPRINT29.798
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-44000002
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
1-33010011
SPRINT26.632
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-33000003
SPRINT28.175
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-33000002
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-33010002
SPRINT28.688
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-33000002
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
0-22000001
R. MarchanR. Marchan★C
0-33000000
O. KempO. KempLF
0-11000000
Team3-29291311114
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LuzardoJ. Luzardo★SP
6.0522250
T. BanksT. BanksRP
0.1222100
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
0.2000100
C. ShugartC. ShugartRP
2.0000130
Team9.0744580

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • C. Burns
    86 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      57%·98.4 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      38%·92.1 mph·64% whiff
    • CH
      5%·91.1 mph·— whiff
  • P. Johnson
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      57%·96.5 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      43%·88.0 mph·33% whiff
  • S. Moll
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      40%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·84.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      13%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·80.6 mph·— whiff
  • T. Santillan
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      90%·94.9 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.6 mph·— whiff

PHI

  • J. Luzardo
    95 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      40%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·87.1 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      26%·86.8 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Shugart
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • FC
      35%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      31%·93.8 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      19%·80.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      12%·88.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      4%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      50%·86.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      21%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·90.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      7%·96.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      7%·83.4 mph·— whiff
  • T. Banks
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      50%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·82.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·90.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

3

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

May 18CINCIN4@PHIPHI5
May 19CINCIN4@PHIPHI1today
May 20CINCIN9@PHIPHI4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 18CINCIN4@PHIPHI5
May 19CINCIN4@PHIPHI1today
May 20CINCIN9@PHIPHI4
Jul 7PHIPHI@CINCINupcoming
Jul 8PHIPHI@CINCINupcoming
Jul 9PHIPHI@CINCINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CINCIN+12445%
PHIPHI-14960%

↘7· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

CINCIN
T. Stephenson

T. Stephenson

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Burns

C. Burns

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 3 H

PHIPHI
T. Turner

T. Turner

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

J. Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CIN beat PHI 4-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 51% WP

Hayes · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Stephenson out at second, Dunn to third.

PHIBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 66% WP

Turner · homered to left (409 feet).

CINTop 7th Inning · 3-1
+10pp→ 85% WP

Reds · challenged (force play), call on the field was overturned: Matt McLain reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Bryce Harper. Blake Dunn scores. Tyler Stephenson to 3rd. Ke'Bryan H

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0002002004
PHI0010000001

Period scoring

CIN won 2 · PHI won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Turner 1

2
0

Inn 4

Myers 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Reds 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CIN
PHI

Play-by-play · 529 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  3. B9

    Tyler Stephenson challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Alec Bohm called out on strikes.

    · ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

    −0.5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  8. B9

    Tony Santillan pitches to Alec Bohm

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  9. B9

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  10. B9

    Harper struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

    −1pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  16. B9

    Tony Santillan pitches to Bryce Harper

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  17. B9

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  18. B9

    Turner fouled out to right.

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

    −3pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  20. B9

    Tony Santillan pitches to Trea Turner

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  21. B9

    Santillan relieved Moll

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  24. T9

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  25. T9

    McLain struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

  30. T9

    Chase Shugart pitches to Matt McLain

    ·

    CIN 4·PHI 1

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

4

Runs

1

7

Hits

3

0

Errors

1

10

TB

7

0

HR

1

5

BB

1

8

K

14

17

LOB

5

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 8.5·CIN +124/PHI -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.20

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Justin CrawfordPHI · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

PHI vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.8%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    52.6%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.7%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.1%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.18 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.