MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PHI

32-27

PHI

31-29

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 985 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

38,763 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

PHI no-vig %

55.1%

open 54.2% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.5%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
54.9%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.2%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.3%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.7pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

★ best

+128DraftKings

edge +3.7pp · implied 42.0%

PHI

no live price

Book	SD	PHI	Best edge
DraftKings	+128★	-154	+3.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHI vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.8± 3.4low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.2± 2.9low
Zack WheelerPHI
5.7± 2.4low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.4± 1.2high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.2± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.9± 0.9high

Total bases

Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.9± 1.8high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.8± 1.6high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Manny MachadoSD
0.7± 0.9high
Bryce HarperPHI
0.5± 0.7high
Edmundo SosaPHI
0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.7± 2.6low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 2.6low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.2± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

SD 2 · PHI 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
PHI	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
F. Tatis Jr.★RF	3-4	4	1	3	0	0	0	0	18.0
SPRINT28.483
G. Sheets★1B	1-4	4	1	1	2	1	0	0	11.1
SPRINT26.735
M. Machado★3B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	16.5
SPRINT24.32
M. Andujar★DH	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	9.4
SPRINT26.530
J. Merrill★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	13.9
X. Bogaerts★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	3	13.2
J. Bowen★CF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	3	15.2
S. Song★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	8.2
F. Fermin★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	3.1
T. France1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8.1

Team	7-33	33	2	7	2	1	1	12	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

F. Tatis Jr.★RF

3-4

18.0

G. Sheets★1B

1-4

11.1

M. Machado★3B

0-4

16.5

M. Andujar★DH

2-4

9.4

J. Merrill★CF

0-4

13.9

X. Bogaerts★SS

0-3

13.2

J. Bowen★CF

1-4

15.2

S. Song★2B

0-3

8.2

F. Fermin★C

0-2

3.1

T. France1B

0-1

8.1

Team

7-33

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
R. Vasquez★SP	5.0	5	2	2	1	3	1	14.3
J. EstradaRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	13.2
Y. MatsuiRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.1
J. AdamRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	3.6
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	4.8
Team	8.0	9	3	3	4	5	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

R. Vasquez★SP

5.0

14.3

J. EstradaRP

1.0

13.2

Y. MatsuiRP

0.2

0.1

J. AdamRP

0.1

3.6

B. RodriguezRP

1.0

4.8

Team

8.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
K. Schwarber★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	3.8
T. Turner★SS	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	1	20.6
SPRINT29.798
B. Harper★1B	1-3	3	2	1	2	1	1	0	27.4
SPRINT2744
B. Marsh★LF	4-4	4	0	4	0	0	0	0	11.1
SPRINT28.175
A. Bohm★3B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	14.3
B. Stott★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	2.3
J. Crawford★CF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	4.4
SPRINT29.798
A. Garcia★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	1.9
SPRINT26.735
G. Stubbs★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.3

Team	9-30	30	3	9	2	1	4	5	—

Batting

Analytics

Player