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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6MIL
SD

SD

25-18

1
7
MIL

MIL

24-17

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
34,862 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIL no-vig %

57.2%

open 56.3% · +0.9

-1.0-2.0MIL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL61.2%52.3%MIL NO-VIG %May 13, 7 PMMay 14, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

SD 1 · MIL 7 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0000000011
MIL330100007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.5pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

SD

no live price

MIL

★ best
-142DraftKings

edge +5.5pp · implied 56.1%

BookSDMILBest edge
DraftKings+118-142★+5.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.96

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

57.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, May 14·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1/VegasMIL -142

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off San Diego Padres, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIL -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Nick Castellanos

Nick Castellanos

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Andrew Vaughn

Andrew Vaughn

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD25-18
1
7
MIL24-17
SD25-18·MIL24-17
SD

SD

25-18

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
0-33000000
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
0-55000003
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT24.32
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT26.530
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT26.735
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-44010002
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
2-44120001
SPRINT27.148
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
1-44010000
B. JohnsonB. Johnson★RF
0-33000012
S. SongS. Song2B
0-11001010
T. FranceT. France1B
0-11000001
Team7-35351710310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. CanningG. Canning★SP
1.2566420
R. MarinaccioR. MarinaccioRP
2.1411220
Y. MatsuiY. MatsuiRP
2.0000130
M. WaldronM. WaldronSP
2.0100040
Team8.010777110
MIL

MIL

24-17

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
0-55000004
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-22211021
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-33100021
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
1-44211010
SPRINT24.12
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
2-33122011
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
2-44023000
SPRINT27.148
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
2-44020000
SPRINT29.798
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-44010003
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
1-33110011
J. OrtizJ. OrtizSS
0-11000000
Team10-333371070711
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. HarrisonK. Harrison★SP
5.0500070
D. HallD. HallRP
1.0000110
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
1.0100100
BB. FitzpatrickRP
2.0110120
Team9.07103100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • G. Canning
    64 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      28%·90.7 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·94.9 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·91.9 mph·— whiff
  • R. Marinaccio
    52 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      65%·93.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      15%·82.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      12%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Waldron
    27 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      37%·92.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      22%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • KN
      19%·79.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·80.2 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Matsui
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      46%·91.3 mph·29% whiff
    • FS
      35%·82.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      19%·86.0 mph·— whiff

MIL

  • K. Harrison
    99 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      63%·95.7 mph·35% whiff
    • SV
      23%·82.2 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      1%·95.4 mph·— whiff
  • B. Fitzpatrick
    35 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      31%·82.5 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      11%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·78.0 mph·— whiff
  • D. Hall
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      33%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      28%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      17%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      44%·94.1 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      31%·82.5 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      25%·93.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

10

1

Runs

7

2

Errors

1

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

May 12SDSD4@MILMIL6
May 13SDSD3@MILMIL1
May 14SDSD1@MILMIL7today

Season series

MIL leads series 2-1

May 12SDSD4@MILMIL6
May 13SDSD3@MILMIL1
May 14SDSD1@MILMIL7today
Aug 11MILMIL@SDSDupcoming
Aug 12MILMIL@SDSDupcoming
Aug 12MILMIL@SDSDupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SDSD+11846%
MILMIL-14259%

↘6· 5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 8pp · Bottom 1st Inning

SDSD
N. Castellanos

N. Castellanos

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

M. Waldron

M. Waldron

SP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 1 H

MILMIL
A. Vaughn

A. Vaughn

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

K. Harrison

K. Harrison

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 5 H

How it ended

MIL beat SD 7-1.

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+8pp→ 91% WP

Rengifo · singled to right, Contreras scored and Sánchez scored, Vaughn to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0000000011
MIL33010000—7

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

1

Runs

7

7

Hits

10

2

Errors

1

9

TB

15

0

HR

0

3

BB

7

10

K

11

17

LOB

20

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 7.5·SD +118/MIL -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

MIL vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

SD won 0 · MIL won 3

0
3

Inn 1

Rengifo 2

0
3

Inn 2

Turang 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Rengifo 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Song 1

SD
MIL

Play-by-play · 624 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SD 1·MIL 7

  2. T9

    Tatis Jr. grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    SD 1·MIL 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 1·MIL 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SD 1·MIL 7

  5. T9

    Brian Fitzpatrick pitches to Fernando Tatis Jr.

    · ·

    SD 1·MIL 7

  6. T9

    · ·

    SD 1·MIL 7

  7. T9

    Song grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Castellanos scored, Johnson out at second, Fermin to third.

    · ·

    SD 1·MIL 7

    +0.5pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 1·MIL 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  11. T9

    Brian Fitzpatrick pitches to Sung-Mun Song

    · ·

    SD 1·MIL 7

  12. T9

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  13. T9

    Johnson walked, Fermin to second, Castellanos to third.

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  20. T9

    Brian Fitzpatrick pitches to Bryce Johnson

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  21. T9

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  22. T9

    Fermin singled to right, Castellanos to second.

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  26. T9

    Brian Fitzpatrick pitches to Freddy Fermin

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  27. T9

    ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  28. T9

    Castellanos safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Vaughn.

    · ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

  30. T9

    Brian Fitzpatrick pitches to Nick Castellanos

    ·

    SD 0·MIL 7

Player projections

MIL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    2.0± 1.9high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Garrett MitchellMIL
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.1%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    60.6%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.1%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.4%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.95 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Joey OrtizMIL · SS
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 12, 26sim 95
    162
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 94
    253
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 93
    254
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 92
    160
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 91
    54
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 90
    241
    8(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs