MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

PHI

29-28

PregameSat, 10:10 PM EDT

LAD

37-20

ATS/PHI -1.5O/U/8.5ML/LAD-131

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

8-2

LAD +2.8 vs PHI -0.2 margin

LAD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 970 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAD no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Andrew Painter

SP · #24

1-5

W-L

5.40

ERA

1.46

WHIP

50.0

Last 3 starts

vsCLEL(1-5)6.1 IP2 ER3 K

vsCIN-6.0 IP2 ER3 K

@BOS-5.0 IP1 ER4 K

Home starter

Roki Sasaki

SP · #11

3-3

W-L

4.93

ERA

1.42

WHIP

45.2

Last 3 starts

@MILW(3-3)5.0 IP2 ER4 K

@LAAW(2-3)7.0 IP1 ER8 K

vsSF-5.0 IP3 ER5 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8.5

Money+109 / -131

Model edge

Win prob35% / 65%

LeanHome · 15pp

Confidence★ Lock

Head to head

SeriesLAD lead series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take LAD on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-131Bet LAD ML↗-131Bet LAD ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8.5Bet the total↗O/U 8.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

LAD vs PHI.

LAD enters on a 6-game win streak; PHI is 5-5 over its last 10.

65.1%

model · LAD win prob

Recent form

LAD8–2+2.8
PHI5–5-0.2

Situational

LAD1d restB2B
PHI1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. LAD has 0 straight road games; PHI has 4.

Model angle

+8.9ppon LAD

LAD's edge is mostly model confidence plus travel burden. Venue split is the main caution flag. Weather and park are neutral for the total environment.

▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▲Travel burden+1.1pp
▼Venue split-0.8pp

Players to watch

Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5total bases · ±2.8
Kyle Schwarber · 2.5 TB · last-10 2.6 vs season 2.3.
Andy PagesLAD
2.3total bases · ±2.9
Andy Pages · 2.3 TB · last-10 2.5 vs season 2.
Freddie FreemanLAD
2.1total bases · ±2.7
Freddie Freeman · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 1.7.

Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1

LAD is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-29PHI @ LAD2–4

Line move

open -126→-126flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
63.1%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.7%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.3%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like LAD.

LAD's edge is mostly model confidence plus travel burden. Venue split is the main caution flag.

+8.9

pp edge · LAD

+1.02

CLV pp

4.9u · large

on LAD

65.2%

±4.8pp band

4.9u large — +8.5pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+11.0pp

+2.1pp post-cal

Kelly

19.6%

4.9% sized

Decimal

1.76

+8.5pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 8.9pp · LAD over PHI

▲
Model confidence90% conf
LAD clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
PHI is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+1.1pp
▼
Venue split70% conf
PHI's venue form trims LAD's edge by 16.4pp.
-0.8pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
LAD is 5-0 over its last 5; PHI is 3-2.
+0.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
LAD has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

54.2%

Market came to the model

Player projections

LAD vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts