MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CLE

CLE

35-27

NYY

36-24

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 985 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

41,045 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

NYY no-vig %

66.3%

open 63.6% · +2.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.0%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
58.2%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.6%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.7%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.98 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.81

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+163

Close price

+194

Open no-vig

36.4%

Close no-vig

32.5%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.2pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

CLE

★ best

+163DraftKings

edge +5.2pp · implied 36.4%

NYY

no live price

Book	CLE	NYY	Best edge
DraftKings	+163★	-199	+5.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYY vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.2± 3.6low
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.8± 3.3low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.3± 2.5low

Hits

Ben RiceNYY
1.3± 1.3high
Brayan RocchioCLE
1.1± 1.1high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Ben RiceNYY
2.5± 2.9high
Travis BazzanaCLE
2.0± 1.9high
Cody BellingerNYY
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Ben RiceNYY
1.0± 1.4high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.8± 1.4high
Aaron JudgeNYY
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
3.0± 2.5low
Tanner BibeeCLE
2.9± 3.6low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.3± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 9 · NYY 4 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	0	1	2	2	0	1	3	0	9
NYY	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
T. Bazzana★2B	1-4	4	0	1	4	0	0	1	9.9
SPRINT27.662
J. Ramirez★3B	3-5	5	1	3	2	0	0	0	34.0
SPRINT27.251
C. DeLauter★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	1	1	20.7
K. Manzardo★1B	2-4	4	1	2	2	1	1	2	5.3
SPRINT25.411
A. Martinez★LF	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	0	3	13.5
D. Schneemann★CF	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	0	2	10.6
S. Kwan★CF	2-4	4	2	2	0	0	0	0	27.8
SPRINT26.530
P. Bailey★C	1-4	4	2	1	0	0	0	2	42.4
SPRINT24.32
B. Rocchio★SS	1-2	2	1	1	1	0	0	1	31.4
Team	12-37	37	9	12	9	1	2	12	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

T. Bazzana★2B

1-4

9.9

J. Ramirez★3B

3-5

34.0

C. DeLauter★RF

0-4

20.7

K. Manzardo★1B

2-4

5.3

A. Martinez★LF

1-5

13.5

D. Schneemann★CF

1-5

10.6

S. Kwan★CF

2-4

27.8

P. Bailey★C

1-4

42.4

B. Rocchio★SS

1-2

31.4

Team

12-37

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
J. Cantillo★SP	4.0	6	4	4	3	4	1	33.8
C. HoldermanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	7.8
T. HerrinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7.5
H. GaddisRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0.3
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1.0
M. FestaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.6
Team	9.0	8	4	4	3	11	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

J. Cantillo★SP

4.0

33.8

C. HoldermanRP

1.0

7.8

T. HerrinRP

1.0

7.5

H. GaddisRP

1.0

0.3

S. ArmstrongRP

1.0

M. FestaRP

1.0

0.6

Team

9.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
B. Rice★1B	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	41.4
SPRINT26.941
P. Goldschmidt★1B	3-5	5	1	3	4	1	0	2	34.7
SPRINT24.74
C. Bellinger★LF	2-5	5	0	2	0	0	0	0	6.1
SPRINT27.560
A. Rosario★3B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3	23.4
T. Grisham★CF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	2.5
SPRINT26.735
A. Volpe★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	12.8
J. Chisholm Jr.★2B	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	2	0.1
SPRINT28.175
J. Caballero★SS	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	19.7
A. Wells★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	8.1
Team	8-36	36	4	8	4	1	3	11	—

Batting

Analytics

Player