MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

BOT 5THTied

24-17

MIL

23-16

Live · model leanBot 5thPolls every 30s

53.9%

MIL wins · current

Pre-game: 59.8% MIL

SD 0 · 0 MIL

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsMIL leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingMILBottom 5th Inning · 0-0
+6pp→ 74% WP
Ortiz · reached on bunt single to pitcher, Frelick to second.

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 5.21

M. King

3-2 · 2.76 ERA

J. Misiorowski

3-2 · 2.45 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

MIL no-vig %

57.2%

open 56.3% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.3%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
59.8%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.2%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

60.3%

+0.5ppvs pre-game · MIL favored

Leverage

high

Tied · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.95

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-143

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Market steamed in our direction

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.4pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

no live price

MIL

★ best

-150DraftKings

edge +3.4pp · implied 56.4%

Book	SD	MIL	Best edge
DraftKings	+116	-150★	+3.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

MIL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 60 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
8.8± 2.8low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
5.9± 4.8low
Michael KingSD
5.6± 1.6low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.5± 1.9low
Brice TurangMIL
1.4± 0.8high
William ContrerasMIL
1.4± 1.4high

Total bases

Brice TurangMIL
2.2± 2.0high
Jackson ChourioMIL
2.0± 3.0low
Miguel AndujarSD
1.9± 2.5high

RBIs

William ContrerasMIL
0.9± 1.5high
Nick CastellanosSD
0.8± 1.1high
Andrew VaughnMIL
0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

Matt WaldronSD
4.4± 3.1low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.9± 3.0low
Walker BuehlerSD
2.6± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

Wed, May 13

Padres

25-18

vs59.8%MIL

MIL★

Brewers

27-16

SD 40.2%win prob59.8% MIL

MIL 1568 · SD 1523Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Merrill★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
SPRINT28.688
F. Tatis Jr.★RF	2-2	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.483
M. Machado★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT24.32
M. Andujar★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. Bogaerts★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets★1B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.735
N. Castellanos★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. France★1B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT24.74
R. Duran★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team	4-19	19	0	4	0	0	0	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-3

2-2

0-2

0-2

0-2

1-2

0-2

1-2

0-2

Team

4-19

	Pitching
M. King★SP	4.1	4	0	0	2	3	0
Team	4.1	4	0	0	2	3	0

Pitching

Player

M. King★SP

4.1

Team

4.1

	Batting
J. Chourio★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Turang★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.586
W. Contreras★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Bauers★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Vaughn★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Mitchell★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. Rengifo★3B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.148
S. Frelick★RF	2-2	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.790
J. Ortiz★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.790
Team	4-17	17	0	4	0	0	2	3

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI