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FINAL+2CLE

MIN

16-23

CLE

21-19

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

19,030 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

CLE no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
65.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.2%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.3%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

CLE vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.5± 3.5low
Taj BradleyMIN
6.5± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
6.3± 2.7low

Hits

Chase DeLauterCLE
1.5± 0.9high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.2± 0.9high
Austin MartinMIN
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.7± 2.4high
Chase DeLauterCLE
2.3± 1.7high
Ryan JeffersMIN
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Brooks LeeMIN
0.9± 1.1high
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.8± 1.1high
Chase DeLauterCLE
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
3.8± 2.3low
Slade CecconiCLE
3.5± 3.1low
Tanner BibeeCLE
2.5± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

MIN 4 · CLE 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	4
CLE	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

MLBFri, May 8FinalSeriesCLE leads series 1-0VegasCLE -149

Recap · MLB

leveland Guardians held off Minnesota Twins, 6–4.

CLE -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

Byron Buxton

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

RBI

CLE · top performer

Steven Kwan

1.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box score

MIN

16-23

Final

CLE

21-19

MIN

16-23

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. Buxton★CF	3-5	5	2	3	2	1	0	1
A. Martin★LF	3-5	5	1	3	0	0	0	0
R. Jeffers★C	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	1	2
J. Bell★1B	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
L. Keaschall★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. Lee★SS	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
V. Caratini★C	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
M. Wallner★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Lewis★3B	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0

Team	13-38	38	4	13	3	1	2	11

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
C. Prielipp★SP	5.0	4	4	1	2	6	1
K. FunderburkRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	0
E. OrzeRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. BandaRP	0.2	2	1	1	1	0	0
Y. GomezRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	8.0	8	6	3	3	6	1

CLE

21-19

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. Kwan★CF	2-3	3	2	2	0	0	2	0
A. Martinez★LF	0-4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
J. Ramirez★3B	2-4	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
R. Hoskins★1B	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	1	1
D. Fry★RF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. Bazzana★2B	1-4	4	2	1	2	1	0	1
B. Rocchio★SS	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Hedges★C	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
P. Halpin★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	8-32	32	6	8	5	1	3	6

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
P. Messick★SP	5.2	7	1	1	1	7	0
M. FestaRP	0.2	3	2	2	0	2	1
C. HoldermanRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	0
T. HerrinRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. SmithRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0
Team	9.0	13	4	4	2	11	1

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

CLE leads series 1-0

May 8

MIN4@

CLE6today

May 9

MIN@

CLEupcoming

May 10

MIN@

CLEupcoming

Season series

CLE leads series 1-0

May 8

MIN4@

CLE6today

May 9

MIN@

CLEupcoming

May 10

MIN@

CLEupcoming

Jul 7

CLE@

MINupcoming

Jul 8

CLE@

MINupcoming

Jul 9

CLE@

MINupcoming

Jul 20

MIN@

CLEupcoming

Jul 21

MIN@

CLEupcoming

Jul 22

MIN@

CLEupcoming

Jul 23

MIN@

CLEupcoming

Sep 12

CLE@

MINupcoming

Sep 12

CLE@

MINupcoming

Sep 13

CLE@

MINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+12345%

CLE-14960%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 9th Inning

MIN

B. Buxton

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

C. Prielipp

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

CLE

S. Kwan

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.467 OPS

P. Messick

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CLE beat MIN 6-4.

Win probability

CLE vs MIN

Score progression

0 lead changes

MIN4

CLE6

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MINTop 7th Inning · 3-4

+13pp→ 22% WP

Buxton · homered to left center (400 feet), Lewis scored.

CLETop 8th Inning · 3-5

+8pp→ 89% WP

Wallner · flied out to center.

CLETop 9th Inning · 4-6

+14pp→ 99% WP

Jeffers · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Buxton scored, Martin out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	4
CLE	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	—	6

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · CLE won 2

Inn 1

Bazzana 2

Inn 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

Inn 5

Inn 6

Jeffers 1

Inn 7

Buxton 2

Ram 1

Inn 8

Hedges 1

Inn 9

Jeffers 1

MIN

CLE

Play-by-play · 590 plays

period

event

player

T9
·
MIN 4·CLE 6
T9
Bell struck out swinging.
·
MIN 4·CLE 6
+1pp
T9
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
MIN 4·CLE 6
T9
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
MIN 4·CLE 6
T9
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
MIN 4·CLE 6
T9
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
MIN 4·CLE 6
T9
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
MIN 4·CLE 6
T9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
MIN 4·CLE 6
T9
Cade Smith pitches to Josh Bell
·
MIN 4·CLE 6
T9
·
MIN 4·CLE 6
T9
Jeffers grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Buxton scored, Martin out at second.BIG MOMENT
· ·
MIN 4·CLE 6
+14pp
T9
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
· ·
MIN 4·CLE 6
T9
Pitch 4 : Ball 1
· ·
MIN 3·CLE 6
T9
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
MIN 3·CLE 6
T9
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
MIN 3·CLE 6
T9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
MIN 3·CLE 6
T9
Cade Smith pitches to Ryan Jeffers
· ·
MIN 4·CLE 6
T9
· ·
MIN 3·CLE 6
T9
Martin reached on infield single to second, Buxton to third.BIG MOMENT
· ·
MIN 3·CLE 6
−8pp
T9
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
· ·
MIN 3·CLE 6
T9
Cade Smith pitches to Austin Martin
· ·
MIN 3·CLE 6
T9
·
MIN 3·CLE 6
T9
Buxton singled to center.
·
MIN 3·CLE 6
−5pp
T9
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
MIN 3·CLE 6
T9
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
MIN 3·CLE 6
T9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
MIN 3·CLE 6
T9
Cade Smith pitches to Byron Buxton
·
MIN 3·CLE 6
T9
Smith relieved Herrin
·
MIN 3·CLE 6
T9
Top of the 9th inning
MIN 3·CLE 6
End 8t
End of the 8th inning
MIN 3·CLE 6

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIN +123/CLE -149

DraftKings · via ESPN