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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2HOU
HOU

HOU

21-31

4
2
CHC

CHC

29-22

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
37,332 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 0.0 · +7.0

CHC no-vig %

57.2%

open 56.3% · +0.9

+0.5-2.0CHC SPREADO/U 7.5O/U -0.5TOTAL61.2%52.3%CHC NO-VIG %MODEL 54.1%May 21, 4 PMMay 22, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 4 · CHC 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0012100004
CHC0000020002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+38.3pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

HOU

no live price

CHC

★ best
+494DraftKings

edge +38.3pp · implied 15.8%

BookHOUCHCBest edge
DraftKings-860+494★+38.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Fri, May 22·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 3-0/VegasCHC -148

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 4–2.

HOU +1.5 cashed (CHC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Christian Vazquez

Christian Vazquez

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CF

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU21-31
4
2
CHC29-22
HOU21-31·CHC29-22
HOU

HOU

21-31

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-55010001
SPRINT28.483
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-44110010
SPRINT25.18
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
1-33010021
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
1-55110003
SPRINT25.920
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
1-44010001
B. ShewmakeB. Shewmake★SS
0-11100010
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-44010001
Z. ColeZ. Cole★LF
0-44001001
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
2-44122101
SPRINT22.90
B. MatthewsB. MatthewsCF
1-22011001
SPRINT28.278
Team9-36364941410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ArrighettiS. Arrighetti★SP
5.0200450
S. OkertS. OkertRP
0.1222001
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.2000010
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
0.2000100
B. KingB. KingRP
1.1000000
Team9.0422561
CHC

CHC

29-22

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
0-44000011
SPRINT28.278
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-33000010
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-33010010
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-55010002
SPRINT27.662
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-44000000
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
0-22000001
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-33000001
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-22112120
SPRINT29.294
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-44000001
M. AmayaM. AmayaC
1-11110000
SPRINT257
M. BallesterosM. BallesterosDH
0-11000000
Team4-3232242156
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. TaillonJ. Taillon★SP
4.2844151
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
0.1100000
E. RobertsE. RobertsRP
2.0000120
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
1.0000020
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.0000210
Team9.09444101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • S. Arrighetti
    89 pitches·26% CSW
    • CU
      36%·76.3 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      36%·92.3 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      19%·79.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      9%·91.8 mph·25% whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      42%·85.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. King
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      88%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·80.4 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Abreu
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      71%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Okert
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·78.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·90.6 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • J. Taillon
    90 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      44%·92.2 mph·30% whiff
    • ST
      22%·80.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      12%·85.9 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      10%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·79.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      3%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Roberts
    32 pitches·34% CSW
    • FC
      50%·93.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      44%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.5 mph·— whiff
  • P. Maton
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • CU
      32%·75.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      32%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Webb
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • CH
      40%·86.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      40%·94.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      13%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·81.7 mph·— whiff
  • H. Milner
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      50%·85.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      38%·79.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      13%·86.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

4

4

Runs

2

2

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 3-0

May 22HOUHOU4@CHCCHC2today
May 23HOUHOU3@CHCCHC0
May 24HOUHOU8@CHCCHC5

Season series

HOU leads series 1-0

May 22HOUHOU4@CHCCHC2today
May 23HOUHOU3@CHCCHC0
May 24HOUHOU8@CHCCHC5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.5h

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

↗7.0pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

HOUHOU+12345%
CHCCHC-14860%

↘6· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.0

+7.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 6th Inning

HOUHOU
C. Vazquez

C. Vazquez

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Arrighetti

S. Arrighetti

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

CHCCHC
P. Crow-Armstrong

P. Crow-Armstrong

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

J. Taillon

J. Taillon

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

HOU beat CHC 4-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHC vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 53% WP

Vázquez homered to left center (371 feet).

CHCBottom 6th Inning · 4-2
+17pp→ 29% WP

Crow-Armstrong · homered to right (406 feet), Amaya scored.

HOUTop 9th Inning · 4-2
+17pp→ 89% WP

Vázquez grounded out to shortstop.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0012100004
CHC0000020002

Period scoring

HOU won 3 · CHC won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Cole 1

1
0

Inn 5

Matthews 1

0
2

Inn 6

Crow-Armstrong 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

HOU
CHC

Play-by-play · 608 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  2. B9

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  3. B9

    Happ popped out to first.

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  9. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Ian Happ

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  10. B9

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  11. B9

    Bregman flied out to center.

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

    −4pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  15. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Alex Bregman

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  16. B9

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  17. B9

    Busch flied out to left.

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

    −4pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  24. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Michael Busch

    ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  27. T9

    · ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  28. T9

    Walker struck out swinging.

    · ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 4·CHC 2

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

4

Runs

2

9

Hits

4

2

Errors

0

12

TB

8

1

HR

1

4

BB

5

10

K

6

21

LOB

22

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 7·HOU +123/CHC -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 7, 26sim 97
    13
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 97
    183
    16(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 95
    260
    22(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 95
    61
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 95
    234
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 95
    185
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · CF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CHC vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    6.0± 4.4low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.2± 0.8low
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Carson KellyCHC
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Ian HappCHC
    1.6± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.8%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    55.0%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.5%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.3%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.97 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.