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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2BAL
HOU

HOU

11-19

3
5
BAL

BAL

14-15

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
13,233 attended

Line movement

44 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BAL no-vig %

54.2%

open 54.2%

-1.0-2.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL58.2%50.2%BAL NO-VIG %MODEL 55.5%May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

HOU 3 · BAL 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0000100203
BAL200020105

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

54.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, Apr 28·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -131

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Houston Astros, 5–3.

BAL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Brice Matthews

Brice Matthews

CF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU11-19
3
5
BAL14-15
HOU11-19·BAL14-15
HOU

HOU

11-19

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-55010002
SPRINT27.251
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
1-44010010
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
0-44000011
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-55000002
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
2-44120000
SPRINT25.920
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
2-44020001
SPRINT25.513
D. HarrisD. Harris★LF
1-44111002
SPRINT28.688
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-44010003
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
3-44132101
SPRINT28.278
Team11-383831131212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. TengK. Teng★RP
3.0522020
S. OkertS. OkertRP
0.1200000
R. WeissR. WeissRP
3.2233231
B. SousaB. SousaRP
1.0000030
Team8.0955281
BAL

BAL

14-15

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-33210010
SPRINT28.175
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-33110011
SPRINT27.457
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
2-44122001
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44112100
SPRINT25.29
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
2-44021001
SPRINT25.310
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
1-44010001
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-22000000
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-33000002
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-33010001
T. O'NeillT. O'NeillRF
0-11000001
Team9-3131595128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BazS. Baz★SP
5.2611161
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
0.1000010
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0200130
A. NunezA. NunezRP
1.0322020
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0000000
Team9.011332121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • R. Weiss
    54 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      56%·83.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      24%·95.1 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      2%·93.0 mph·— whiff
  • K. Teng
    42 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      38%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·92.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      19%·82.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      12%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Sousa
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • SL
      85%·85.0 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      15%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Okert
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      50%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·81.3 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • S. Baz
    98 pitches·24% CSW
    • KC
      33%·85.5 mph·27% whiff
    • FC
      29%·89.5 mph·15% whiff
    • FF
      19%·96.8 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      50%·89.5 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Nunez
    19 pitches·47% CSW
    • ST
      58%·85.7 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      26%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·96.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      5%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·99.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      17%·90.8 mph·— whiff
  • R. Garcia
    5 pitches·60% CSW
    • CH
      60%·85.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      20%·84.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

9

3

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

Apr 28HOUHOU3@BALBAL5today
Apr 29HOUHOU0@BALBAL0
Apr 30HOUHOU3@BALBAL10
Apr 30HOUHOU11@BALBAL5

Season series

BAL leads series 1-0

Apr 28HOUHOU3@BALBAL5today
Apr 29HOUHOU0@BALBAL0
Apr 30HOUHOU3@BALBAL10
Apr 30HOUHOU11@BALBAL5
Jul 18BALBAL@HOUHOUupcoming
Jul 18BALBAL@HOUHOUupcoming
Jul 19BALBAL@HOUHOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU+10948%
BALBAL-13157%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 44 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 5th Inning

HOUHOU
B. Matthews

B. Matthews

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

R. Weiss

R. Weiss

RP

Top reliever

3.2 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

BALBAL
P. Alonso

P. Alonso

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BAL beat HOU 5-3. Alonso's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

BAL vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 5th Inning · 1-2
+11pp→ 32% WP

Matthews · homered to right center (387 feet).

BALBottom 5th Inning · 1-4
+19pp→ 88% WP

Alonso · homered to right center (380 feet), Ward scored.

HOUTop 7th Inning · 1-4
+12pp→ 25% WP

Matthews · doubled to left, Smith to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0000100203
BAL20002010—5

Period scoring

HOU won 1 · BAL won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Rutschman 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
2

Inn 5

Matthews 1

Alonso 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Rutschman 1

2
0

Inn 8

Harris 1

0

Inn 9

HOU
BAL

Play-by-play · 548 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  2. T9

    Altuve bunt grounded out to third.

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  5. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Jose Altuve

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  6. T9

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  7. T9

    Paredes flied out to center.

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

    +3pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  14. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Isaac Paredes

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  15. T9

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  16. T9

    Alvarez flied out to center.

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

    +4pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  21. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Yordan Alvarez

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  22. T9

    Helsley relieved Nunez

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  23. T9

    O'Neill in right field.

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  26. B8

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  27. B8

    O'Neill struck out looking.

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

    −0.6pp

  28. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 5

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

3

Runs

5

11

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

19

TB

14

1

HR

1

2

BB

2

12

K

8

23

LOB

12

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 9·HOU +109/BAL -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

BAL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.2± 0.8low
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.6%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    56.1%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.8%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.6%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Dustin HarrisHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 24, 26sim 96
    92
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 95
    17
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 95
    262
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 94
    245
    6(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 94
    260
    22(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 94
    94
    5(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs