May 8, 26sim 97
94
5(H)6
EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
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FINAL+9SF
SF
20-27
101
ATH
23-23
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 14 players in cohort
Zack GelofATH · 3BSPRINT28.891
Matt ChapmanSF · 3BSPRINT28.175
Casey SchmittSF · DHSPRINT2872
Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
12,541 attended
Line movement
200 snapshots
ATH spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 9.5
open O/U 10.0 · -0.5
ATH no-vig %
57.2%
open 57.2%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
55.3%
ensemble · ATH favored
Elo Static
55.4%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.3%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.5%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.17 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
92% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+123
Close price
+123
Open no-vig
42.8%
Close no-vig
42.8%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Player projections
ATH vs SF.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 72 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Landen RouppSF6.1± 2.1low
- Trevor McDonaldSF5.4± 2.3low
- Logan WebbSF5.2± 1.6low
Hits
- Jung Hoo LeeSF1.5± 1.6high
- Casey SchmittSF1.2± 0.9high
- Luis ArraezSF1.2± 1.0high
Total bases
- Casey SchmittSF2.6± 2.1high
- Jung Hoo LeeSF2.2± 2.1high
- Willy AdamesSF2.2± 2.6high
RBIs
- Casey SchmittSF1.0± 1.2high
- Rafael DeversSF0.8± 1.6high
- Brent RookerATH0.6± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Adrian HouserSF3.3± 2.7low
- Jacob LopezATH3.2± 2.9low
- Logan WebbSF3.1± 2.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
SF wins
SF 10 · ATH 1 (by 9)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked ATH +5pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| ATH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
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Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant