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NYM
1LiveTop 8th
ARI
1Updated 11:44 PM ET
TOP 8THTied
NYM
14-23
11
ARI
17-19
Live · model leanTop 8thPolls every 30s
53.6%
ARI wins · current
Pre-game: 59.0% ARI
NYM 1 · 1 ARI
Tied
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Inn 8away leadsARI leads
Key moments · live
newest firstChase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 9.58
N. McLean
1-2 · 2.97 ERA
vs
R. Nelson
1-3 · 6.61 ERA
Line movement
200 snapshots
ARI spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
ARI no-vig %
43.7%
open 42.8% · +0.9
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Ensemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
57.8%
ensemble · ARI favored
Elo Static
59.0%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.6%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.7%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.26 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
85% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
Live model · pick
Receipts
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+0.85
CLV pp
Open price
+123
Close price
+119
Open no-vig
42.8%
Close no-vig
43.7%
Market came to the model
Line shop
Player props
Player projections
ARI vs NYM.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
124
projections · 51 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Nolan McLeanNYM7.3± 2.5low
- Michael SorokaARI6.0± 4.2low
- Freddy PeraltaNYM5.4± 3.1low
Hits
- Ildemaro VargasARI1.5± 1.3high
- Juan SotoNYM1.1± 0.9high
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI1.0± 1.2low
Total bases
- Ildemaro VargasARI2.3± 2.7high
- Juan SotoNYM2.2± 2.2high
- Corbin CarrollARI1.6± 2.1high
RBIs
- Adrian Del CastilloARI0.7± 0.8high
- Ildemaro VargasARI0.7± 1.3high
- Mark VientosNYM0.6± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Merrill KellyARI5.3± 3.4low
- Ryne NelsonARI3.3± 3.8low
- David PetersonNYM3.0± 3.5low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
The One modelEdge
● Live
1NYM
Mets
14-23
vs59.0%ARI
ARI★
Diamondbacks
17-19
1NYM 41.0%win prob59.0% ARI
ARI 1490 · NYM 1451Box score→
