MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts

TOP 6TH+1ARI

NYM

15-23

ARI

17-20

Live · model leanTop 6thPolls every 30s

59.0%

ARI wins · current

Pre-game: 57.6% ARI

NYM 1 · 2 ARI

ARI +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsARI leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipARIBottom 3rd Inning · 1-2
+21pp→ 66% WP
Vargas · singled to left, Carroll scored and Perdomo scored, Del Castillo to second.
Lead flipNYMTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 61% WP
Baty · doubled to center, Semien scored.

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 11.64

C. Holmes

4-2 · 1.69 ERA

M. Kelly

1-3 · 9.95 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

ARI no-vig %

47.4%

open 46.8% · +0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
57.6%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.1%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.1%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

76% confidence

Win prob · home

85.6%

+28.0ppvs pre-game · ARI favored

Leverage

medium

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.04

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

ARI vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 51 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
7.1± 2.4low
Michael SorokaARI
6.0± 4.2low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.4± 3.1low

Hits

Ildemaro VargasARI
1.3± 1.2high
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI
1.0± 1.2low
Juan SotoNYM
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.3high
Mark VientosNYM
1.9± 2.7high
Ildemaro VargasARI
1.8± 1.2high

RBIs

Mark VientosNYM
0.8± 1.4high
Adrian Del CastilloARI
0.7± 0.8high
Gabriel MorenoARI
0.5± 1.0medium

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
5.3± 3.4low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.0± 3.7low
David PetersonNYM
3.0± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

NYM

Mets

15-23

vs57.6%ARI

ARI★

Diamondbacks

17-20

NYM 42.4%win prob57.6% ARI

ARI 1485 · NYM 1456Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSat, May 9Top 6thSeriesNYM lead series 1-0VegasARI -110

Updated 0s ago

NYM · top performer

Marcus Semien

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

RBI

ARI · top performer

Adrian Del Castillo

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Top 6th

NYM15-23

ARI17-20

NYM15-23ARI17-20

NYM

15-23

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Soto★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Bichette★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Melendez★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Vientos★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Benge★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Semien★2B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. Baty★RF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
F. Alvarez★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Taylor★RF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team	3-19	19	1	3	1	0	3	4

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
C. Holmes★SP	5.0	4	2	2	2	5	0
Team	5.0	4	2	2	2	5	0

ARI

17-20

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
K. Marte★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Carroll★RF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. Perdomo★SS	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. Del Castillo★C	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
I. Vargas★1B	1-2	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
N. Arenado★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. Gurriel Jr.★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Moreno★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Waldschmidt★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team	4-19	19	2	4	2	0	2	5

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
M. Kelly★SP	5.2	3	1	1	3	4	0
Team	5.2	3	1	1	3	4	0

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

C. Holmes
87 pitches31% CSW
- SI
  61%94.3 mph20% whiff
- ST
  21%82.5 mph33% whiff
- CH
  9%89.2 mph0% whiff
- CU
  7%82.8 mph0% whiff
- FC
  2%88.8 mph— whiff

ARI

M. Kelly
74 pitches23% CSW
- FF
  30%92.4 mph13% whiff
- CH
  22%89.0 mph18% whiff
- SL
  18%86.7 mph57% whiff
- FC
  15%91.6 mph33% whiff
- CU
  9%82.4 mph0% whiff
- SI
  7%92.2 mph0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

NYM lead series 1-0

May 9

NYM3@

ARI1

May 9

NYM@

ARItoday

May 10

NYM@

ARIupcoming

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 7

ARI3@

NYM4

Apr 8

ARI7@

NYM2

Apr 9

ARI7@

NYM1

May 9

NYM3@

ARI1

May 9

NYM@

ARItoday

May 10

NYM@

ARIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYM-11052%

ARI-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

NYMSP

C. Holmes

#35 · 4-2

ERA

1.69

—

Last 3 starts

5/3@

LAA6.2 IP · 1 ER · 6 KW(4-2)

4/28vs

WSH6.0 IP · 0 ER · 6 KW(3-2)

4/22vs

MIN7.0 IP · 2 ER · 3 K-

ARISP

M. Kelly

#29 · 1-3

ERA

9.95

—

Last 3 starts

5/3@

CHC4.1 IP · 6 ER · 5 KL(1-3)

4/28@

MIL5.0 IP · 5 ER · 1 KL(1-2)

4/22vs

CHW4.1 IP · 8 ER · 5 KL(1-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

NYM4L · 5R

1
J. Soto
LF · #22
L
2
B. Bichette
SS · #19
R
3
M. Melendez
DH · #1
L
4
M. Vientos
1B · #27
R
5
C. Benge
RF · #3
L
6
M. Semien
2B · #10
R
7
B. Baty
3B · #7
L
8
F. Alvarez
C · #4
R
9
T. Taylor
CF · #28
R

ARI2L · 4R · 3S

1
K. Marte
2B · #4
B
2
C. Carroll
RF · #7
L
3
G. Perdomo
SS · #2
B
4
A. Del Castillo
DH · #25
L
5
I. Vargas
1B · #6
B
6
N. Arenado
3B · #28
R
7
L. Gurriel Jr.
LF · #12
R
8
G. Moreno
C · #14
R
9
R. Waldschmidt
CF · #15
R

Live · top performers so far

Top 6th

Game flowNYM ↔ ARI

Recent swing: 21pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 2 : Ball 1

NYM

M. Semien

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

C. Holmes

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 7 K · 3 ER

ARI

A. Del Castillo

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Kelly

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 1 ER

How it's going

ARI lead NYM 2-1 (Top 6th). Vargas's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

ARI vs NYM

Score progression

1 lead change

NYM1

ARI2

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NYMTop 2nd Inning · 1-0

+12pp→ 61% WP

Baty · doubled to center, Semien scored.

ARIBottom 3rd Inning · 1-2

+21pp→ 66% WP

Vargas · singled to left, Carroll scored and Perdomo scored, Del Castillo to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	R
NYM	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
ARI	0	0	2	0	0	—	2

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · ARI won 1

Inn 1

Inn 2

Baty 1

Inn 3

Vargas 2

Inn 4

Inn 5

Inn 6

NYM

ARI

Play-by-play · 321 plays

period

event

player

T6
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Merrill Kelly pitches to Carson Benge
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Vientos struck out swinging.
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
+3pp
T6
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Merrill Kelly pitches to Mark Vientos
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Melendez flied out to right.
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
+4pp
T6
Pitch 7 : Ball In Play
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Merrill Kelly pitches to MJ Melendez
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
T6
Top of the 6th inning
NYM 1·ARI 2
End 5t
End of the 5th inning
NYM 1·ARI 2
B5
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
B5
Perdomo struck out looking.
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
−1pp
B5
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
B5
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
B5
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
NYM 1·ARI 2
B5
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
·
NYM 1·ARI 2

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 9.5·NYM -110/ARI -110

DraftKings · via ESPN